CNN Illinois Exit Polls

[musicblind]

They just reported on TV the first round of exit polls have it:

Romney: 45%

Santorum: 35%

It looks like this is likely Santorum's swan song.

[DCBob]

1. Especially if Romney wins by double digits.

However, its worth noting the anti-Romney vote still wins.

[Mr.Turnip]

2. Nah Santo will win the LA primary in a few days and this stupidity will go ever onward.

Romney's money really seems to have helped him in IL he grew his margin in the state all week while Santorum brought his 14 point margin in Gallup down to 4 in the same period.

o and Santorum still won the less than 100k a year vote.

[DCBob]

3. Depends if the media and the public stay interested...

and it appears interest is beginning to wane which benefits Romney.

[musicblind]

7. Idk. Mathematically, it looks like a brokered convention isn't possible now without Santorum

winning New Jersey, Texas, and California.

And surely Santorum isn't delusional enough to believe he will outright win, so he must be hoping for a brokered convention.

Now I can buy the possibility of Santorum winning Texas, maybe even New Jersey given its proximity to Pennsylvania. But California?

I just don't see any way Santorum wins California. He just doesn't have the money to advertise in one of the worlds largest economies... and the state is a liberal state at that. They are pretty sane over there. They aren't Mississippi.

Just my take, but those are how the numbers appear to me.

[Mr.Turnip]

10. California isn't actually winner take all, it's Winner take all by congressional district.

He can lap up a significant amount of delegates if he can dominate in certain parts of the state more favorable to him.

May is full of states that are favorable to Santorum too.

Romney will still probably win before the convention but a contested convention is still very very possible if Santorum hasn't collapsed by May.

[Mr.Turnip]

4. exits have narrowed to +7 apparently.

it's not gonna be enough for him to win but Santorum seems to be outperforming his poll numbers as usual, he will probably brag about this then blame Newt.

[RBInMaine]

5. Problem is, Grinch and Grampy keep splitting the vote. Mittens still can't get much above 40.

[Mr.Turnip]

8. He would have probably won IL anyway.

Santorum would need to be in a better national position to win a state like IL, Suburbs are a problem for him and IL is full of them.

[workinclasszero]

6. Aww buh bye pope ricky

Obama would have beat his insane Dominionist ass in the general but I guess it will have to be Mitt and his magic underwear instead!

[Motown_Johnny]

9. I doubt Rick will drop out

If Newt is staying in then why the hell should Santorum drop out?

All they want to do now is keep Rmoney from getting 1144 so they can have a floor fight and try to take it away from the moderate at the convention.

[Mr.Turnip]

11. of course he won't drop out, this wasn't a state he was ever really likely to win.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. so we agree... No Swan Song for Frothy tonight

[workinclasszero]

14. Cool I hope they have massive floor fights

Between pope ricky's true believers and newty's freepers and Rmoney's rich mob! That will be GREAT

And then the insane teabaggers can complete their takeover of the thug party and hand the nomination over to the Wicked Witch of Wasilla, The Alaska Disaster, the one and only(i hope and pray) Falin Palin the half Governor!

Then Obama and the dems will win the whitehouse and congress in a massive landslide in the fall!! Yipee!

[DCBob]

18. I think Santorum may drop out after he loses DC,MD and WI on April 3.

Gingrinch and Paul on the other hand are in it to the end regardless.

[Motown_Johnny]

19. It makes no sense for the #2 to drop out when #3 & #4 are staying in

Santorum has nothing else to do. He may as well travel around and give speeches to tiny little crowds who worship him.

I think they are all planning on the floor fight now. His dropping out would be foolish, even for him.

[DCBob]

21. Santorum has more to lose by staying in than Gingrich or Paul.

He still has a political career ahead of him that will require not burning bridges with the GOP. The other two couldn't care less.

[Motown_Johnny]

23. I don't know about that

Assuming Christie and Jeb were waiting for 2016 to run this could be Frothy's last stand. He will never be a Senator again and I doubt he has a shot for PA Governor.

I can't think of any elected office he has a shot at.

[DCBob]

24. Perhaps, but there is the matter of money.

I doubt that his billionaire will keep pumping money into a obvious loser. But you may be right. Santorum does appear to be on a "mission". He may go all the way just to make a statement. We shall see.

[Motown_Johnny]

29. he started without any money, he seems to wear it as a badge of honor

[Mr.Turnip]

28. I really really doubt Jeb can win a Republican primary.

he'd be up at first but be torn apart fast for not being ultra-right, he'd have to do what Romney has done to win.

Christie is the same, once the baggers learn what his positions actually are they'll turn against him hard, cause to a large extent Christie talks big but his actual policies while very right-wing for New Jersey are nowhere near what the baggers and friends want, and he would still be Governor in 2016 provided he is reelected so unlike Romney who has had time to lurch far to the right, Christie simply would not have the time, unless he starts soon but that would hurt the New Jersey GOP and he doesn't want that.

Rubio is the one too watch IMO, he's nutty enough for the baggers but he's charismatic enough to win nonbaggers too.

and I wouldn't count Santorum out regardless of who runs, part of the reason Santo is still in is so he can build a national support base IMO.

this is especially true if Romney is the nominee and he loses, which will of course send the base into a fit of "IF ONLY WE HAD NOMINATED A CONSERVATIVE WE WOULD HAVE WON!"

[Cosmocat]

30. he is done as a politician

He is toxic in PA, and he ran afoul of the state party by backing Arlen Spector against a primary challenge from Toomey in 2004.

He has nowhere to go as a pol, maybe Virginia.

He has had his heart set on running for president for a LONG time now, and has a niche as the bible champion.

I don't know, maybe he pulls the plug, but this is swan song, I think, outside of the profitable conservative media/back slap get together circuts.

[Mr.Turnip]

22. I think he has a decent shot in WI.

and Romney is apparently pouring money into MD and campaigning there so he might have done an internal poll there and had it come out worrying.

[DCBob]

25. This win tonight, if it stays double digits, is going to give Rmoney some major momentum.

That should help him in upcoming states. I think Santourm still wins LA but not sure how much significance that will have. The April 3 states DC,MD and WI will be seen as more important.. imo.

[Mr.Turnip]

26. I thought Santorum's wins last week would give him momentum.

They did not.

Truth is people generally don't care all that much about the margin of victory what they see is "X WINS" in the headlines.

Romney won by double digits in Florida look what happened a week later.

and DC will only be noted for Santorum not being on the ballot there, unless Ron Paul wins it or something.

[nickinSTL]

27. with 71% reporting, Romney has 48% to Santorum's 34%

looking good to keep a double digit lead.

[grantcart]

12. CNN Projects Romney wins Ill

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

15. I heard on the tv machine that Mittens outspent Scrotorum by 21 times in some media markets

The triumph of $$$$$$$. We're going to see the most disgusting attempt to buy an election in human history this fall.

[Mr.Turnip]

17. Chicago + Subrubs and it's paying off rest of the state is pretty close or leaning to Frothy.

Of course that makes sense, Romney win's by winning big in the areas that will vote against him in the fall, Santorum wins by winning big in the areas that would vote for any Republican in the fall.

really you can win in IL losing practically every county expect for Cook if you manage to have a huge margin in Cook, Quinn actually only won 4 counties when he won his election to a full term, but he carried Cook with over 70% of the vote.

I find it all hilarious.

[Mr.Turnip]

16. Santorum is crushing in some downstate counties but the turnout is pathetic there.

Even more pathetic than in Chicagoland.

I don't Santorum really felt he had a chance to win the state, he campaigned there but not all that heavily and he only spent around 300-400 between the campaign and SuperPAC, probably saving for WI, should be fun to watch.

[nickinSTL]

20. Turnout for Tuesday’s Illinois primary stood at a meager 15 percent as of mid afternoon.

Turnout for Tuesday’s Illinois primary stood at a meager 15 percent as of mid afternoon.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/03/20/voter-turnout-extremely-low-for-illinois-primary/