Yes, Clinton Is Still Ahead

[applegrove]

Yes, Clinton Is Still Ahead

https://politicalwire.com/2016/09/06/yes-clinton-is-still-ahead/

"SNIP............



Nate Silver: “Clinton’s ahead, by a margin of about 3 percentage points in an average of national polls, or 4 points in our popular vote composite, which is based on both national polls and state polls. While the race has tightened, be wary of claims that the election is too close to call — that isn’t where the preponderance of the evidence lies, at least for the moment. If one candidate is ahead by 3 or 4 percentage points, there will be occasional polls showing a tied race or her opponent narrowly ahead, along with others showing the candidate with a mid- to high single-digit lead. We’ve seen multiple examples of both of those recently.”

“In swing states, the race ranges from showing Trump up by 1 point in Iowa to a Clinton lead of about 6 points in her best states, such as Virginia. That’s a reasonably good position for Clinton, but it isn’t quite as safe as it might sound. That’s because the swing states tend to rise and fall together. A further shift of a few points in Trump’s favor, or a polling error of that magnitude, would make the Electoral College highly competitive.”


.............SNIP"

[democrattotheend]

1. I am just as happy to have the race be too close to call

Enthusiasm is on their side this election, not ours. The sad reality is that Trump's supporters are more excited to vote for him than most Democrats are to vote for Hillary. I am very afraid of Democrats getting complacent and either not voting or voting third party. So I am very happy to have the race "too close to call." I would rather be pleasantly surprised on Election Night.

[applegrove]

2. Oh I agree the left needs to think it is close to get the vote out. In fact I believe the Dems lost

the 2004 election because exit polls announced Dems were ahead by the early afternoon and so Dems stayed home (dems being people who have to feed the kids, get a babysitter, pay them, in order to get to the polls after work).

[democrattotheend]

3. But I thought most Dems were welfare queens?

Who vote early in the day because they, unlike Republicans, don't have jobs that keep them busy until the evening?