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Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 07:30 PM Sep 2016

Most accurate pollsters since 2014 per 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/
snip
Finally, let’s take a look at how some of the more prolific pollsters have performed recently. The following table contains our Advanced Plus-Minus scores for polling firms that released at least 20 total polls between the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential primaries. Advanced Plus-Minus measures a poll’s error as compared against others that surveyed the same race, controlling for factors such as the number of days between the poll and the election.5 Negative scores are good and mean the pollster performed better than other polling firms under similar conditions.

The best-performing polls recently have been those from [font color=red]Monmouth University and those from Marist College.[font color = black]Both apply “gold standard” methodologies, using live telephone interviews and placing calls to cellphones as well as landlines, and both participate in the AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Quinnipiac University, another “gold standard” pollster, has also performed fairly well of late. So has Fox News, which switched to new polling partners in 2011 and has gotten good results since then.6

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Most accurate pollsters since 2014 per 538 (Original Post) Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2016 OP
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