2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAre you concerned about the millennials?
Millennials helped give us a Republican Congress when only around 22% of them voted in 2010 and 2014, and a surprising share of those who voted chose Republicans (55% D, 44% R). My concern is that millennials are a strangely sexist group. When you consider that at least 60% of them look at porn and two of the top search terms for porn is MILF (Mother's I'd Like to Fuck) and step mom, I think it says something rather negative about them.
A Harvard Business Review article said that millennial men are just as sexist as their dad's, citing a recent study that showed they tend to overestimate men's intelligence and underestimate women's intelligence.
A study in Australia showed that millennials, more than their parents, are more likely to support traditional gender roles (35% said men should be the primary breadwinner, compared with 24% of older people) and millennial moms spend 2x as much time on childcare on millennial dads.
At least based on their tone in reddit and in this forum during the primary, their dislike for Hillary in many ways was as great as that of Trump supporters. It was often over the top and even used sexist depictions and reliance on right-wing memes. Now, part of that was of course the nature of a tough primary, but I do fear there could be something different.
Reuters most recent poll assumes a very low turnout by young voters (13%), and I certainly hope that's not accurate. But, there is cause for worry. I suppose in the next few weeks, as college resumes, we'll begin to get a sense of whether there is real enthusiasm among millennials for Hillary. Polls show that millennials favor Hillary by 2.5:1 over Trump, and Sanders supporters support her by over 6:1 over Trump, but I have no doubt that millennials were more progressive than the results showed in 2010 and 2014, which means that Republican millennials turned out in disproportionate numbers compared to Democratic leaning ones. Further, millennials are more likely than other groups not to vote even in the best of years, and if Obama couldn't turn that around, I doubt if Hillary can.
Now, don't get me wrong, I certainly recognize that millennials are progressive. When it comes to socialism and civil rights for most groups (gays, transgendered, people of color), they are beyond progressive. After all, their support for Bernie, an elderly New York Jew with a heavy Brooklyn accent, was startling in many ways. But, millennials do have strange form of sexism that even exists among women of that age group.
The way I could see Hillary losing is if progressive millennials are less motivated to vote than conservative ones and if people of color turn out in disappointingly small numbers. Can we count on millennials? What does the Hillary campaign need to do? What do we need to do? Or is Trump awful enough to motivate millennials to unit en masse and use their power to liberate our nation from white nationalism?
Sources:
https://mic.com/articles/121846/11-unexpected-things-you-didn-t-know-about-millennials-and-porn#.jIEJ0gEf5
http://www.ibtimes.com/elections-results-2014-213-percent-millennial-turnout-about-same-previous-midterms-1719624
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512395848
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/06/17/harvard_business_review_declares_that_most_millennial_men_aren_t_feminists.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/relationships/11822387/Millennial-men-are-more-sexist-than-their-middle-aged-fathers.html
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/16/millennials-match-baby-boomers-as-largest-generation-in-u-s-electorate-but-will-they-vote/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pr/2016/08/15/poll-finds-millennials-favor-clinton-over-trump-wide-margin/88757778/
molova
(543 posts)Zero.
In fact, you strangely mentioned only years when no presidential elections were held. Odd. Very odd.
I did mention that millennials favor Hillary by 2.5 to 1 and Sanders supporters favor her by 6:1, but forgot to put in the link. I added it (the last one).
grubbs
(356 posts)It would be nice if more young people voted, but i believe we can win with a low youth turnout as they aren't going to vote for trump.
Squinch
(50,954 posts)surprising to me. Though I never saw the articles about their leanings as a group, individual interactions with some millennials here showed a great deal of sexism among some millennial men and a booming silence on the topic from millennial women.
That coupled with the common statement that there is no sexism any more and we older women are just stuck in an old fight make it clear that the pendulum has swung and it will be a while before young men AND women wake up to it.
Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)No, I am not concerned.