In Illinois, Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away

[morningfog]

By NATE SILVER

A quick glance at the map might tempt you into thinking that the Republican nomination is roughly an even battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, with Mr. Romney tending to prevail in the Northeast and the West, and Mr. Santorum in the Midwest and the South.

Do the math, however, and you’ll find that the nomination isn’t all that close. Mr. Romney hasn’t done that well in the South — but he also hasn’t been shut out there, winning Florida and its 50 winner-take-all delegates, and Virginia, where only Ron Paul was on the ballot alongside him. The Southern states that were poorer for Mr. Romney still tended to split their delegates in a relatively proportional way, and some of the anti-Romney vote there has gone to Newt Gingrich rather than Mr. Santorum.

In the Northeast and the West, on the other hand, Mr. Romney has often carried his states by clearer margins — like in Arizona, Washington or New Hampshire. Mr. Santorum narrowly beat Mr. Romney in Colorado, and Mr. Paul nearly did in Maine, but that has been about the extent of their incursion onto his turf.

Then, there are the delegates that few people pay attention to. From the five U.S. territories given a primary or caucus, including Puerto Rico on Sunday, Mr. Romney won 54 delegates, and Mr. Santorum won none. Mr. Romney has been endorsed by roughly 30 super delegates so far, and Mr. Santorum 2.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/in-illinois-santorums-chance-at-nomination-is-slipping-away/#more-29181

[Kahuna]

1. Rick doesn't want to be president. Between his remark about not being concerned

about the unemployment rate and his war on porn, he is officially DOA.

[morningfog]

2. I think it has come down to Rick and Newt having blinding hate for Mitt.

MItt is reaping what he sowed.

[Cosmocat]

3. Romneys primary campaign is a lot like BOs

campaign in 08.

He knows the math, and is just grinding away.

He has had the good luck of being strong in the right places to get the big winner takes all states, and also has had the financial strength with his superpac to go scorched earth just enough to make up his deficits in the important states where he was down.

Personally, he is not a great candidate, but he LOOKS the part, and his campaign is pretty well run. Good strategy and very effective.

[Arkana]

4. If his campaign was better run he'd have put away Santorum and Gingrich by now.

And his one strategy is "scorched earth": burn the state to the ground with attack ads until the people vote for you just to shut you up.

[Cosmocat]

5. His campaign is the best by far in the primary

he is fundraising better than the other candidates combined, he has the best organization by far, they use their resources the best.

Functionally, it is a good campaign.

The candidate is tough sell to the audience of republican primary.

[LisaL]

6. Yes, he doesn't appeal to their base.

But I am not so sure that's a negative.

[Cosmocat]

10. LOL

I hate that he has gone the same exact route that McCain did - totally selling out personally in his bloodlust to get to the presidency.

You keep repeating the nonsense that the Rs spew, you come to believe it.

Before he fell into that black hole, he was not a completely abhorrent republican.

[morningfog]

8. His fundraising, though, depends on large donors who have mostly capped out.

He is running a deficit.

[Cosmocat]

9. Yeah

part of the reason to hope Santorum continues to drag it out.

[DCBob]

7. If nothing else, the Romney campaign is methodical and relentless.

They have a plan and they are executing it. The question is whether they will have the numbers by the time they get to the convention. I suppose they will but it could still get ugly with so many in the party who cant stand him.