Beautiful: Clinton +16 in VA

[Recursion]

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_aug_2016_politics

803 VA likely voters ("likely" is generally worse for us than "registered&quot . It's a beautiful thing to see.

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters (64%) said they were very interested in the campaign (27% were somewhat interested), and 88 percent said they care a good deal about who wins the presidential election. Democrats (71%) are now more likely to be very interested in the campaign compared to Republicans (61%), and more likely to care a good deal about who wins (93% of Democrats; 67% of Republicans).

Clinton has improved her standing among Democrats since May (91% support her now compared to 78% in May), and Trump's support among Republicans has declined slightly from 80 percent in May to 78 percent in August. Clinton holds strong leads among both political Independents (43%-25%) and self-described moderates (57%-22%). About half (49%) of Clinton supporters said their vote was more of a vote for her than against Trump (38%), while Trump backers were more likely to say their vote is one against Clinton (49%) rather than for him (35%).

Clinton's favorable ratings, though not good, have improved from May (39% favorable; 45% unfavorable compared to 35% and 50% in May), while Trump's numbers are very poor and marginally worse than in May (23% favorable; 63% unfavorable down from 23% and 56%).

We asked how voters would feel if either candidate was elected president in November. One-in-five (20%) respondents said they would feel proud, with another 32 percent satisfied, but 28 percent would be disgusted if Clinton wins. Those numbers are largely unchanged in three months. Again, Trump's numbers are even worse and very similar to May (7% proud, 27% satisfied, and 49% disgusted). While party affiliation has a large impact on those numbers, 2 percent of Democrats said they would be disgusted with a President Clinton (43% would be proud), while 8 percent of Republicans would be disgusted with a President Trump (only 17% would be proud).

[geek tragedy]

1. Even if it's an outlier, this is way, way outside the margin of error.

And it's hard to see NC being THAT different from VA.

[apcalc]

2. Isn't southern Va pretty different from northern?

I'd think, except for the research triangle, that NC is more like southern Va. Educate me, please.

[geek tragedy]

3. Yes, NC is more conservative than VA.

But not 10 points more conservative. The demographic trends that made VA turn blue are present there, just not to the same extent quite yet.

[Recursion]

4. And accelerating (nt)

[oswaldactedalone]

5. Add Greensboro, Charlotte, and Asheville

to the RTP as the saving graces of NC. The rest of the state is Southern Virginia.