My new list of Senate pickup prospects (in order of likelihood)

[brooklynite]

1. Wisconsin

2. Illinois

3. Indiana

4. Pennsylvania

5. New Hampshire

6. North Carolina

7. Ohio

8. Florida

9. Missouri

10. Arizona

Assuming we hold Nevada, we need 4 pickups for control.

[BzaDem]

1. I would put Indiana somewhere above North Carolina. n/t

[brooklynite]

2. My mistake...put it in third place

[Hortensis]

7. Grain of salt report, but an 18-point lead for Evan Bayh

is reported as a result of a poll by Democratic Senate Majority PAC. I know. I only mention it because it is the most recent and comes after the hoorah about whether Bayh is actually an Indiana resident.

A week earlier Monmouth reported his lead had dropped to 7 points after a barrage of well funded attacks, including whether he's really still a Hoosier. Like so many DC politicians, his big home's back there and he has a condo in Indiana.

[MADem]

3. Ayotte is on the ropes in NH--Hassan is popular and

her ads tout how "business friendly" she is, which is one of the things that the NH GOP expresses "concern" about.

Apparently she has thrown enough bones (with red meat attached) at the business sector that they are warm towards her.

There's an issue ad running against Ayotte that asks if she's such an "independent minded" legislator, why doesn't she denounce Trump? It's pretty rich!

[blue neen]

4. We are seeing a lot of ads in PA.

The Republicans are throwing tons of money at Toomey's campaign. I hope your prediction is right!

[Hortensis]

5. HuffPo has NV's Republican Heck about 3 pts ahead

of Dem challenger Cortez Masto (would be first Hispanic Senator and another woman). Heck supposedly has significantly more money and currently is considered likely to win. But, 3 points sure isn't an insurmountable lead. In fact, with standard deviations, what are their real standings?

[CK_John]

6. IMO, a pickup of 2 would be a good day. You are underestimating the GOP.

[NCTraveler]

8. I think we have a really good shot in Florida.

The last poll was in July and had Rubio up 4. Here is the thing. That poll doesn't reflect voter turnout. It is a simple question of whom one supports. We need to drive Trumps turnout into the mud.