Sam Wang Now Puts Hillary's Chances at 95%...

[MohRokTah]

Sam Wang Now Puts Hillary's Chances at 95%...

By GayIthacan
Sunday Aug 21, 2016 · 11:49 AM MST



Sam Wang, over at Princeton Election Consortium, has switched his models over to the General Election Final Mode and set Hillary’s election odds of being elected at 92% current and 95% Election Day levels.

His lead article explains his reasoning and provides a brief history on the smallness of late-season shifts in polling results since 1992.

Remember — Sam outperformed Nate in both 2008 and 2012!

Enjoy!

Princeton Election Consortium

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/21/1562408/-Sam-Wang-Now-Puts-Hillary-s-Chances-at-98

[pandr32]

1. Woo-Hoo!

[oasis]

2. Humiliating landslide ahead.

[calimary]

12. A humiliating landslide is MUCH NEEDED!!!

It shouldn't be just a defeat. It should be a butt-fucking. Beat the frickin' SNOT outta them. As some orange man recently said - send them outta here "on a stretcher, folks."

[left-of-center2012]

3. I'd like to see Arizona go blue

I'm thinking they may be ticked off for Trump's comment about McCain not being a hero.

[NurseJackie]

5. I think Arizona AND Utah could tip over into the Blue column.

Wouldn't that be fun?!

[calimary]

13. It would certainly be lovely to ease the long-suffering John McCain into a nice, relaxing

retirement. He's served in many ways, for many years. Time to kick back, Senator. It won't be like you'd be sent out to pasture. You're still gonna get invited on TV for a helluva lot of face time. I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up as some network political analyst somewhere, and start a whole new career.

[FreeState]

14. Utah won't go blue

They may have their electoral votes go to Hillary, however it will be because they split the republican vote between two or more candidates, leaving Hillary to win by default, every other federal race will be its predictable red.

[Doctor Jack]

4. 538 does seem far too conservative

Not in a political sense but in how bold they are. They seem to hedge their bets and play up the "anything can happen" angle. It gets to the point where the movement in their numbers makes no sense. It seems like she can go from 7 points to 8 points in a poll from week to week, and her odds go down, or stay flat at 7 to 7 and go down, or go from 7 to 6 and goes down. I sometimes think they are too afraid to show any significant movement in their odds

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Trends

Silver has basically admitted his models have a flaw that is being exposed. They figure trends too much and they figure that the trends will continue. So if Hillary's lead goes from 8 to 7.5 his model puts too much weight into that trend continuing when it's really just noise.

I use the NY Times upshot that has several models combined. Been pretty static at 86-88%.

[localroger]

10. And that makes sense when you consider where 538's model came from

Before Silver got into politics he was doing sabermetrics and sports modeling, and there a decline in an athlete's performance could portend a real physical problem. In politics though that sort of thing is hardly ever the result of something like a pulled muscle or torn ligament; it's populations reacting to the news and changing their allegiances, and there is a lot more intertia there than there might be in sports modeling.

[Raine1967]

7. I am still with Obama on this:

"Strange things can happen in an election like this if we're not working hard, if we're not engaged, if we're not participating," Obama told donors at a fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee.

"I want us to run scared the whole time," he said.

Obama decried the clashes between supporters of likely Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and protesters on Thursday at a rally in San Jose, California.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-obama-idUSKCN0YQ00U

I REALLY like seeing this news, but I sure am going to work to GOTV.

[NNadir]

8. Regrettably, they did pretty bad in the 2004 election though.

I believe they had Kerry winning.

[Warren DeMontague]

9. and 538 has been shading AZ blue.

Picking up AZ or GA would be nice, too.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. My dad always said

never trust an egghead

Now doesn't matter

Election Day is all that matters

[SunSeeker]

15. K & R