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workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 01:47 PM Aug 2016

Republicans Set To Lose Senate Control

Republicans Set To Lose Senate Control
Democrats have a 78 percent chance of getting 50-plus seats in November, the HuffPost Senate model shows.
08/21/2016 08:07 am ET Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post


The biggest electoral question of the year is undoubtedly who becomes the next president. But just after that follows the issue of whether the Senate majority will flip again. Republicans took the chamber with a 54-46 seat majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Keeping that lead in 2016, however, will prove a more difficult task.

According to The Huffington Post’s Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, there’s a 55 percent chance that the Senate will swing completely over ― and a 23 percent chance that it’s tied at 50 seats for each party. That means there’s a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-78-percent-chance-50-senate-seats_us_57b8a525e4b0b51733a3cda0
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Republicans Set To Lose Senate Control (Original Post) workinclasszero Aug 2016 OP
In 2012, reports said that GOP would take it 2014, DNC would take it in 2016 and GOP would take yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #1
Meanwhile in the House.... Spitfire of ATJ Aug 2016 #9
I nominate Wendy Davis! lastlib Aug 2016 #13
That is a great choice! yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #17
I doubt Cruz survives a primary. SaschaHM Aug 2016 #23
Now this is the kind of stuff I love to read. Ligyron Aug 2016 #2
What we need to to get Democrats into state positions by 2020 csziggy Aug 2016 #6
Agreed and an interesting read too. Ligyron Aug 2016 #7
I know - I still don't know if any Democrats are running to replace Gwen Graham csziggy Aug 2016 #8
Those numbers will change if Trump keeps talking. Coyotl Aug 2016 #3
Thank Gawd! pandr32 Aug 2016 #4
Is it too much to hope for a 60/40 majority?? napi21 Aug 2016 #5
We've got gas in the tank and money in the bank bucolic_frolic Aug 2016 #10
The Rethug losers are gonna end up wishing they had confirmed Merrick Garland. 63splitwindow Aug 2016 #11
Exactly. This is what I am waiting for. Missn-Hitch Aug 2016 #19
I don't think any hearing happens. If I am wrong, I don't believe he would withdraw Judge Garland's 63splitwindow Aug 2016 #21
Yes, of course. Missn-Hitch Aug 2016 #22
From your lips to God's ears. Ellen Forradalom Aug 2016 #12
Supposing it happens, and hoping that it does, phylny Aug 2016 #14
I don't know if its strictly by seniority or not but workinclasszero Aug 2016 #15
Chuck Schumer (NY) was getting a lot of buzz last year SticksnStones Aug 2016 #16
I think it will be Schumer and I am okay with it. Missn-Hitch Aug 2016 #20
This is what worries me about a Hillary Clinton 'landslide' LynneSin Aug 2016 #18
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
1. In 2012, reports said that GOP would take it 2014, DNC would take it in 2016 and GOP would take
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 02:29 PM
Aug 2016

in 2018 and DNC taking it again in 2020. Big time changes during these times. Mostly has to do with amount of seats each party has to defend during the year of the switch. In 2018, GOP has 8 to defend to DNC 23 seats. However Texas has Cruz who is disliked so that senate contest will be national news. We need a good democratic nominee to possibly take that seat.

 

Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
9. Meanwhile in the House....
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 04:03 PM
Aug 2016

Republicans are doing auditions to see who gets to star in The Impeachment Show.

SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
23. I doubt Cruz survives a primary.
Tue Aug 23, 2016, 10:42 PM
Aug 2016

He only won his first primary in an even lower turnout runoff after the frontrunner Dewhurst failed to get over 50% (He was at 44 to Cruz's 34). He will face a opponent after his DNC antics if/when Trump loses and if it's someone strong, he's toast.

Ligyron

(7,639 posts)
2. Now this is the kind of stuff I love to read.
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 02:51 PM
Aug 2016

If the Dems do a good job in 2016 while taking care of their own districts then 2018 may not be such a problem. Esp being incumbents at that point.

csziggy

(34,137 posts)
6. What we need to to get Democrats into state positions by 2020
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 03:40 PM
Aug 2016

The Republicans did it in 2010. The strategy was to control the state legislatures when the census came out so they were in charge of redistricting. THAT is why it takes more votes for Democrats to win than it does for Republicans.

Rachel Maddow has done segments about this tactic and so has NPR. It was called Operation RedMap.

The Rachel Maddow Show 3/2/15
How Republicans set up a decade-long advantage over Democrats
Chris Jankowski former president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, talks with Rachel Maddow about the Republican implementation of "Project RedMap" to win state legislatures for greater control of redistricting in 2010.
Video at link: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/how-the-gop-gave-itself-a-ten-year-advantage-407234115988


Understanding Congressional Gerrymandering: 'It's Moneyball Applied To Politics'
June 15, 20161:36 PM ET
Heard on Fresh Air

This is FRESH AIR. I'm Dave Davies in for Terry Gross, who's off this week. Our guest today, Salon's editor-in-chief David Daley, has a new book that he says began with a simple question. When President Obama won re-election in 2012 and a Democratic tide gave the party a big majority in the Senate, why did the House of Representatives remain firmly in Republican hands? The result was even more striking since voters cast 1.3 million more ballots for Democratic House candidates than Republican ones.

The answer, Daley decided, was effective gerrymandering of House districts following the 2010 census. And it's state legislatures that draw most of the congressional boundaries across the country. The result of Daley's research is his new book, which details an effort by Republican strategists to put money and campaign resources into targeted state legislative races in key states in 2010, so Republicans could control the statehouses and control congressional redistricting. Daley's book has a title I can't say on the radio. It refers to a crude term for a political dirty deed done cheaply. I'll approximate the title as "Rat-bleeped: The True Story Behind The Secret Plan To Steal America's Democracy" [Actual book title is "Rat-F*****: The True Story Behind The Secret Plan To Steal America's Democracy."]

<SNIP>

DAVIES: And the critical link here, of course, is that in most states, it's the state legislature that draws the congressional boundaries. They do the redistricting after each census. So he's getting at Congress by going to statehouse and state Senate seats often little-known to voters. This was called Operation RedMap. Explain the idea.

DALEY: The idea was that you could take a state like Ohio, for example. In 2008, the Democrats held a majority in the statehouse of 53-46. What RedMap does is they identify and target six specific statehouse seats. They spend $1 million on these races, which is an unheard of amount of money coming into a statehouse race. Republicans win five of these. They take control of the Statehouse in Ohio - also, the state Senate that year. And it gives them, essentially, a veto-proof run of the entire re-districting in the state.

More with transcript and audio of full program: http://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482150951/understanding-congressional-gerrymandering-its-moneyball-applied-to-politics


This is why we need to get out the vote for ALL Democratic candidates at ALL levels!

Ligyron

(7,639 posts)
7. Agreed and an interesting read too.
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 03:53 PM
Aug 2016

To some extent it's a matter of money but in North Florida last election there were seats where no Dem was even running for instance. I have to imagine there are other states like that too.

Need to bring back the 50 state strategy.

csziggy

(34,137 posts)
8. I know - I still don't know if any Democrats are running to replace Gwen Graham
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 03:59 PM
Aug 2016

I called the Florida Democratic Party Headquarters a couple of months ago and they didn't know.

I'm no longer in her district - I'm in that little squiggle of Leon County that connects District 5 to Jacksonville and we have plenty of Democratic Candidates.

Oh wait! I have my sample ballot - now in District 2 there are Steve Crapps and Walter Darland for Congress. State District 8 has four candidates, while mine, District 9, has three. I don't know about the districts farther west. or the ones between here and Jacksonville.

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
3. Those numbers will change if Trump keeps talking.
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 02:58 PM
Aug 2016

Must be horrible to be a Republican today, nervously awaiting what your candidate says next and praying he says nothing

napi21

(45,806 posts)
5. Is it too much to hope for a 60/40 majority??
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 03:33 PM
Aug 2016

THAT would certainly shame the pubs into ineffectiveness! That and a slight majority in the house and a Dem President would finally enable us to clean up the tax code, reset the SCOTUS, overturn all the dumb rulings of Scalia & Co., start to repair our infrastructure, and on and on.

YES, I'm an eternal optimist!

bucolic_frolic

(43,280 posts)
10. We've got gas in the tank and money in the bank
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 04:18 PM
Aug 2016

question is, can we make anything of it in October ... can we throttle up
and gain traction, will we use issues as wisely as possible?

Accelerate your efforts, whatever they may be

Join with fellow democrats on and offline

Think on how you can make a difference and then do it!

Missn-Hitch

(1,383 posts)
19. Exactly. This is what I am waiting for.
Tue Aug 23, 2016, 09:49 PM
Aug 2016

How do you see this playing out? What is McTurtle thinking? Do you think he may go ahead with hearings after Labor Day? I think it would be awesome if the President withdrew his nom if they do it. Cheers.

 

63splitwindow

(2,657 posts)
21. I don't think any hearing happens. If I am wrong, I don't believe he would withdraw Judge Garland's
Tue Aug 23, 2016, 10:19 PM
Aug 2016

name because he knows this is a man's career we are talking about and I don't believe he would play it that way UNLESS it was equally OK with Judge Garland.

Missn-Hitch

(1,383 posts)
22. Yes, of course.
Tue Aug 23, 2016, 10:32 PM
Aug 2016

It would be sweet if Garland agreed. Too House of Cards I guess. Still fun thinking about it.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
15. I don't know if its strictly by seniority or not but
Sun Aug 21, 2016, 05:06 PM
Aug 2016

Sen. Leahy is the number one democrat followed by Sen. Mikulski

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
18. This is what worries me about a Hillary Clinton 'landslide'
Mon Aug 22, 2016, 01:30 PM
Aug 2016

If people think she's going to win then some of the marginal voters (those that only vote in 'hot' elections) might stay home and that could hurt some of these senatorial swing states.

Essentially we need to boot every 2010 GOP Freshman republicans (PA, IL, WI, NH), hold on to Nevada and possible steal back a seat in Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri or Arizona.

I think we have 4 wins pretty solid (the GOP Freshman 4 although if I am correct NC is also one but doesn't look good for us there). But if we lose Nevada that is going to make it tough - we would then need to pick up 2 seats from the Indiana, NC, Missouri and Arizona list. Evan Bayh is polling strong in Indiana but the other 3 are crap shoots at best.

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