Kicked old thread: Electoral College predictions from August & October (optimistic!)

[Bucky]

Last edited Wed Nov 16, 2016, 12:57 AM - Edit history (4)

Original Thread Title: Drop your Electoral College predictions in this thread. We'll check back here in November

{FYI - Originally posted in August 2016}

I'm using this site http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map as an EC calculator tool.

My prediction is a 347-191 Clinton victory in the Electoral College.

For popular vote I'll predict...

49- Clinton
41- Trump
[font color="#f0f0f0"].[/font] 8- Johnson
[font color="#f0f0f0"].[/font] 2- Stein

(Updated on 10-19-16)

I'm now gonna adjust my prediction:

50.1- Clinton
42.8- Trump
[font color="#f0f0f0"].[/font] 5.3- Johnson
[font color="#f0f0f0"].[/font] 1.5- Stein

EC: Clinton- 352 - Trump-186

[Buckeye_Democrat]

1. Landslide

EV: 404-134, Clinton.

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 38%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 2%

[SCantiGOP]

2. Around 380 electoral votes

About a 8% margin in popular vote

[Grown2Hate]

3. Clinton 392, Trump 146; Popular vote Clinton 49, Trump 39, Johnson 10, Stein 2.

The real "surprises" being Clinton flips AR, AZ, GA, and IN (while coming AGONIZINGLY close in SC).

And for extra credit, 54 to 46 advantage for the Dems in the Senate while NOT QUITE being able to flip the House (coming within 5 seats).

[link:|

[greymattermom]

21. Love Georgia blue

that will be my prediction. Remember our Republican governor vetoed the bathroom bill and the guns on campus bill.

[Stargleamer]

4. Clinton - 374 Trump 164 n/t

[AgadorSparticus]

5. Here is my prediction: Dem 407 Rep 131

Last edited Mon Aug 15, 2016, 01:28 PM - Edit history (2)

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/jyjgE"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/jyjgE">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

I am optimistic. I gave SC, AR and IN to Hillary along with all the swing states. I think it will be a blowout. And some hard core red states will turn pink.



Done. Went back to split NE.

[StevieM]

12. Did you want to give her one electoral vote from Nebraska? You can do that on 270towin. (eom)

[AgadorSparticus]

13. Yes. How do you do that?

[StevieM]

14. Go to the 270towin site. Off to the side on the bottom right of the map you will see icons for

Nebraska and Maine. You can click on one of their congressional district tabs to change Nebraska to purple and signify that you are giving one electoral vote to the losing candidate.

[AgadorSparticus]

15. Ok. Thank you!

[StevieM]

16. I think you may have done it wrong. It looks like you gave 4 EVs to Clinton and 1 to Trump.

You have to have just one blue tab clicked on the Nebraska congressional districts and leave the others red.

[AgadorSparticus]

28. You're right. I did. Ok, I went and corrected it.

Thank you, StevieM!

[Bucky]

17. Utah? Arkansas?!!

I like your optimism

[AgadorSparticus]

20. I think the Mormons are going to surprise us. They really don't like Trump

Besides, the church has made a stance against the anti religion they see from Trump. From their history, they are a little sensitive to religious persecution. I am seeing #nevertrump from the Mormons on my fb. So, while I am not sure they will actually vote for Hillary, they may sit it out.

As for Arkansas, I am not as sure about that. I went back and forth on that one. I know it has gotten progressively more red. Bush beat Kerry 54-45. McCain beat Obama 59-39. Romney beat Obama 61-37. But my rationale is that if Hillary can be tied with Trump in Indiana with Pence as Trump's VP, then I am staying hopeful she can make a dent in those Arkansas numbers.

[Bucky]

23. If it gets near that bad, I think you'll see a tipping point to Johnson

I submit to you that the Mormons a DUer knows does not provide a representative sample of all Mormon voters

[AgadorSparticus]

30. Here. Check out this article on the Mormons so far in this election.

It is an interesting read on the group in general.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/donald-trump-gop-mormon-vote-utah/474819/

Here is a poll from the desert news with a 4.5 MOE.
http://m.deseretnews.com/article/865650513/Poll-Utah-would-vote-for-a-Democrat-for-president-over-Trump.html?ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fpolitics%2Farchive%2F2016%2F03%2Fdonald-trump-gop-mormon-vote-utah%2F474819%2F

I don't know. But with some switching parties and others voting for Johnson or just sitting out, I am going to bet on Hillary taking Utah. Fingers & toes crossed.

[Bucky]

32. That's good news. But I think Johnson is more likely to benefit from distaste for Trump

Here's a poll from late July that has Johnson at 26%, just behind Trump
https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/poll-gary-johnson-26-utah-three-points-overtaking-trump/

Since then, Johnson's numbers have tapered down. But in the most recent polls, Trump is ahead of Clinton by 9-12%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5962.html

[AgadorSparticus]

35. Well that's interesting! Didn't realize Johnson is up 26% now.

It looks like it may go to him afterall. But it will still help Hillary. She was never expected to take Utah. Trump needs Utah. In a 3 way, Johnson can do some serious damage to Trump which according to that 1 article, Johnson can inflict some damage in the swing states which means he could really stop Trump. We can hope, anyways.

All this means, we just have work to do. Time to GOTV.

[gopiscrap]

6. Clinton 390 Trump 148

Clinton 52% Trump 37% Johnson 7% Stein 3% Others 1%

[RandySF]

8. Here's mine.

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/R6Xlp"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/R6Xlp">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

[StevieM]

11. Did you want to give her one electoral vote in Nebraska as well? The site will let you do that.

eom

[StevieM]

9. Clinton 52, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 1.25, others 0.75. HRC 408 EVs, Trump 130 EVs.

Last edited Wed Aug 17, 2016, 02:20 PM - Edit history (1)

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/pDxAz"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/pDxAz">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

And I also think Hillary will come very close to winning South Carolina.

[lovemydog]

10. Clinton 356 Trump 182

Popular vote:
51 Clinton
42 Trump
6 Johnson
1 Stein

Democrats fall one short of re-taking the Senate

Democrats pick up 2 seats in the House

And I remain dismayed by how many 'progressives' don't vote.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. 362-176

8 points in the popular.

[yellowcanine]

19. I have Clinton at 405.

That includes all of the Obama 2008 states plus Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Arizona. And I think there might be at least one surprise gift for Clinton such as Utah or Mississippi with an outside chance at Texas. I see no bad surprises for Clinton.

[Capt. Obvious]

22. 417 EV's for Clinton

For that to happen, Clinton 52%, Trump 36%

[sofa king]

24. 271 Clinton - 267 Ryan

That's right, I said it. Even though I was spectacularly wrong about Trump dropping out last Friday, I'm still convinced he'll be escorted out of the race "soon," and I further guess that he will be replaced with Paul Ryan.

Republicans will crank up the vote-theft Wurlitzer again and try like hell to kick it into the House. But even stealing Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire won't be enough to get there.

[Bucky]

27. Someone woke up with his crystal ball all polished

Not unplausible, tho I think you overestimate Ryan.

[sofa king]

37. Hee hee!

I have been wildly, spectacularly wrong all year. It's as if Donald Trump's reality distortion sphere somehow warps my usually reliable predictive powers.

Part of it, I am sure, is that neither Trump nor the Republican Party has an actual plan anymore; neither knows what they are going to do next, and both are completely consumed with the metacrisis of reacting to individual crises of their own, constant creation.

In military terms, this would be called "loss of initiative," and it's one of the fundamental ways that one defeats an enemy, by forcing them to focus on stabilization rather than dictating the pace of events. But it usually takes a--well, a flaming narcissist to completely fail: a Hitler, a Mussolini, a McClellan, a Custer. Fortunately for us we happen to have one of those on the other side.

Anyway, we're sort of in the "breakout" phase of this campaign, where success is limited primarily by the leader's vision and limits of endurance. I'm pretty sure that Hillary Clinton knows how to visualize total success, so perhaps my future predictions should be guided not by what Trump does, but by what Mrs. Clinton does--and does not--do.

[StrictlyRockers]

25. My current prediction

Dem 374

Rep 164


http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=2816

[citood]

26. 358/180

[Imperialism Inc.]

29. Clinton 342 - 196. 7.5% popular vote margin

Basically going with the current polls but not giving Clinton AZ, GA, or IA

[megahertz]

31. Clinton 335, Trump 203

[lordcommander]

33. Clinton 414 Trump 124

""

[st17011864200074656]

34. 347-191

[Maru Kitteh]

36. Clinton 396; Trump 142

Popular vote:

Clinton 50%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 1%
Other <1%

[Orangepeel]

38. 358 to 180

[Bucky]

39. kick for other updates

[Bucky]

40. kicked for your amusement