2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe 2016 Electoral Map that SCARES THE LIVING SHIT OUT OF ME!
Low chance given Cheeto Benito's meltdown, but this is the map the FREAKS ME THE FUCK OUT!!!!
2naSalit
(86,646 posts)I question its validity on a few levels.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Agreed.
This looks like one of those pro-tRump maps on Youtube, where I saw a Pro-tRump person said that tRump was more than likely going to win: Ohio, PA, Florida, NH, CO. and Virginia (Even though Hillary's VP comes from VA. knowing how popular Kaine IS there. Must not know that VA. is a purple state)
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)it's a kind of fun and educational thought exercise.
http://www.270towin.com/
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,855 posts)... that he'll continue to self-destruct.
I'm not getting complacent. I'm just looking at the pattern.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)NH will save us in that scenario.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,139 posts)She will definitely get all of the EVS from Maine. Mischief managed!
longship
(40,416 posts)And NV is moving toward Clinton these days. The latest polls in OH place Clinton up by a bunch.
Same with FL. She'll likely take that one CG district in NE, too.
And with notable red states close enough to be in play in play for Hillary -- AZ, GA, NC, MO, IA, fucking UT! -- Drumpf's path to victory is all but nonexistent.
Just have to work that GOTV! That's the answer.
kevink077
(365 posts)First, Colorado would go Red before New Hampshire ever would. If trump wins New Hampshire he will win in a blowout anyway.
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)kevink077
(365 posts)You missed my point? If Clinton cannot carry left of center NH she likely would have bigger problems in swing states. Clinton of course will likely sweep them all.
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)Jarqui
(10,126 posts)a lot of these states understate the damage he's done to his campaign because they're still averaging polls from before his convention and post-convention implosion.
But with those understated polls, he's behind in the following states you have him winning:
Florida (29) Clinton +3.6
Georgia (16) Clinton +0.3
Iowa (6) Clinton +0.4
Nevada (6) Clinton +2.3
New Hampshire Clinton +8.2
North Carolina (15) Clinton +2.0
Ohio (18) Clint +2.6
When the poll of polls weans New Hampshire of it's pre convention polls, Trump will be behind by 12 to 15 pts.
In all the other states you have blue, Hillary is up by 7 or more pts to clinch the electoral vote ignoring all the other states above where she is leading. She's in better shape than Obama ever was.
All Hillary has to do is shut up, hope the Clinton Foundation stuff doesn't get legs and Trump stays in the general election and she'll be the next president.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)TexasTowelie
(112,236 posts)it's obvious that Crooked Hillary cheated!
in case it is needed.
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)Iowa and NV will also be tough for Trump!
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,855 posts)rock
(13,218 posts)For a real scare. With no basis for reality, one is just as good as the other.
procon
(15,805 posts)While omitted -- and who knows why? -- the website is http://www.270towin.com/, and allows visitors to "customize" their own map versiobs by changing the states.
Their splash page presents the current data, and while not as sexy as the doctored map presented to us, Hillary is still beating Trump 217 - 164.
Blue Idaho
(5,049 posts)I don't get it... Why make a map that has no connection to reality and then post it on DU? What was the OP hoping this would do?
Imperialism Inc.
(2,495 posts)I mean as long as we are worrying about things that aren't going to happen we might as well go all out.
Squinch
(50,955 posts)TeamPooka
(24,229 posts)spooky3
(34,457 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)sobenji
(316 posts)We went Blue in 08, and Pence is despised here
MFM008
(19,814 posts)Every 4 without fail, someone does this scenario and it never happens .... I think we're safe.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)well-nigh unimaginable until it actually happened, too.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Then it's all over for Trump.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It could happen. Unlikely, but it's one possibility.
538 has a thing now on how Clinton could win without FL and OH.
First off, while it's an interesting nightmare scenario- particularly since the house would clearly vote to put Trump in- I think even in this worst case type deal it's unlikely that she wouldn't be able to carry at least one of the following: NH, NV, or IA.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,084 posts)NV is not going to suddenly switch back and at this point, if FL & OH voted twice for the "black guy", they are a shoo-in for Hillary.
And if Hillary plays up her Chicago roots, IA should be competitive again (Obama won IA in 2008).
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)The only pink states on there which Trump is likely to win are Utah, Mississippi and Missouri.
PierreBauvais_49
(1 post)First off, Trump is behind Hillary by over 10% in NH, a state that has been solidly democratic for the last 3 election cycles.
There's also NO chance Trump will win Nevada, seeing how many Latino voters reside in that state.
More importantly, recent polls from 538 show that typically red states like Arizona are starting to favor Clinton, which further restricts Trump's path to election victory.
If Trump keeps on screwing up his campaign, his electoral map will look like this:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLX14
Ideally, Hillary should get at least 450 electoral votes against that orange-haired fascist, but that's impossible in this day and age.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)It was basically a best case scenario, but was still possible.
And given how the media treats any misstep by Hillary compared to Trump, let's hope Hillary doesn't smear her lipstick on her teeth between now and November (quoting Samantha Bee here), or else this map could actually happen.