Hillary Clinton got a big boost from the convention. What happens next?

[riversedge]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/14/hillary-clinton-polls-convention-trump-election-data


Hillary Clinton got a big boost from the convention. What happens next?

The Guardian analyzed RealClearPolitics polling averages from three previous election cycles to look at what could affect her lead over Donald Trump
Note: Poll results may not reflect an event until about a week later. Source: Real Clear Politics

Lauren Leatherby on the Guardian US interactive team

Sunday 14 August 2016 07.00 EDT
Last modified on Sunday 14 August 2016 13.47 EDT


“I love polls. I love polls,” Donald Trump told a South Carolina audience in December, while he was still one of many contenders in the Republican primary. But, he hedged, “if they turn negative, I don’t like them.”

Sure enough, Trump has been singing a different tune in the general election, during which he’s mostly trailed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

Even his moment in the spotlight during the Republican national convention in mid-July was cut short by the Democratic convention just one week later. Trump briefly surged to a one-point lead over Clinton soon after the RNC. But Clinton’s convention bump – which put her seven points ahead in polling averages – not only wiped out Trump’s short-lived lead but built upon her previous dominance.

The Guardian analyzed RealClearPolitics polling averages from three previous election cycles to look at what could affect Clinton’s lead. How the candidates fare in the polls before election day may yet defy all expectation; this has been a tumultuous election season to say the least. But if history is any guide, Clinton’s current lead hinges on her performance in upcoming debates, the ability to avoid (any more) scandals, and bigger-picture issues like the economy and national security, which are beyond either candidate’s direct control.
The convention bump: what does it mean, and will it last?
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The candidates’ next chance to shine: the debates

Clinton and Trump will go head to head on 26 September..........................
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GRAPHS at Link:

[liberal N proud]

1. What's next?

We get out the vote!

Get involved, make calls, canvas and volunteer for the campaign. We cannot thing that this is going to be easy. We will need to make sure to get voters to the polls, get them registered if they are not.

Even if you are not in a swing state, which they may all be swing states this year, we have to make sure the voters get to the polls.

[DemonGoddess]

2. Good article! k&r!

[JCMach1]

3. Stay on message, watch Donald tweet/speak, repeat wash

Donald can't win.

[Hortensis]

4. Hugely influential: Obama's approval rating.

I've read that -- all else aside -- the single factor that correlates most strongly with a party's national election victory is the approval rating of the incumbent president. At least in "normal" elections.

President Obama's is currently 54% -- Nicely high, though not outstandingly so. Higher than Reagan's average, lower than Bill Clinton's average. George H.W. Bush averaged higher still.

[vinny9698]

5. Hillary's Ultra Secret Weapon: Trump

The gift that keeps on giving. In this case super giving