2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver of 538.com speculates on what a huge Clinton landslide would look like
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/?ex_cid=2016-forecastWhat A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like
By Nate Silver
AUG 12, 2016 AT 1:40 PM
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But theres another possibility staring us right in the face: A potential Hillary Clinton landslide. Our polls-only model projects Clinton to win the election by 7.7 percentage points, about the same margin by which Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. And it assigns a 35 percent chance to Clinton winning by double digits.
Our other model, polls-plus, is much more conservative about Clintons prospects. If this were an ordinary election, the smart money would be on the race tightening down the stretch run, and coming more into line with economic fundamentals that suggest the election ought to be close. Since this is how the polls-plus model thinks, it projects Clinton to win by around 4 points, about the margin by which Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 a solid victory but a long way from a landslide.
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Perhaps the strongest evidence for a potential landslide against Trump is in the state-by-state polling, which has shown him underperforming in any number of traditionally Republican states. Its not just Georgia and Arizona, where polls have shown a fairly close race all year. At various points, polls have shown Clinton drawing within a few percentage points of Trump and occasionally even leading him in states such as Utah, South Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Kansas and even Mississippi.
Just how bad could it get? Lets start by giving Clinton the 332 electoral votes that Obama won in 2012. Thats obviously not a safe assumption: The race could shift back toward Trump, and even if it doesnt, Clinton could lose states such as Iowa or Nevada, where her polling has been middling even after her convention bounce. But as I said, were going to focus on Clintons upside case today.
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Ok, that is fun and interesting. Thanks, Nate. Now back to working hard to get Hillary elected, running THROUGH the finish line and pushing for a progressive agenda.
question everything
(47,534 posts)Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972.
Wouldn't it be nice if Trump would be known as "the big loser?" Oh, how he hates to lose.
And, on Inauguration Day, I think that Biden should transfer to Trump the baton of "big gaffer..."
liberal N proud
(60,344 posts)You know what it is...
Your FIRED!!
StrictlyRockers
(3,855 posts)Back to the golf course for you, Donnie.
shoo!
TexasTowelie
(112,417 posts)and the sea of blue stretching across the country to all corners.
StrictlyRockers
(3,855 posts)Let's make it happen! Work to convert your friends to vote for Hillary! Make them think!
drray23
(7,637 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)...is that wrong?
StrictlyRockers
(3,855 posts)You're alright.
Get yourself some Kleenex.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)jcgoldie
(11,645 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)The estimated margins, by which Hillary Clinton would need to win the U.S. Popular Vote, to flip and carry much-desired states (most especially and deliciously with Texas) are a helpful guide.
I would like to see, for 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, an electoral-vote score that reaches what neither Bill Clinton or Barack Obama achieved400.
The four winning Republican presidential elections of the 1970s and 1980s were never under the 400 range in part because the map was transitioning. California, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jerseyto name four double-digit populous statescarried Republican every time, including for the unseated Gerald Ford in 1976, before eventually flipping (and now regularly carrying) in the Democratic column beginning in 1992 (for Bill Clinton).
We are overdue. The historical percentage of states carried by presidential winners is between 34 and 35. Democratic presidential nominees, since 1992, have averaged 12 electoral votes per carried state. (Carriage of 33 states would do it.) I would like to see Hillary Clinton get this back on track. And, to be blunt, Donald Trump is unworthy of carrying any more than 10 states. (And, with that, I am being generous. I am thinking of a variation on the winning maps of a 1950s Dwight Eisenhower and a 1964 Lyndon Johnson.)
We still have plenty more time.