Revised Prediction for the Rep. Primary: Bitterness, Gnashing of teeth, Years of Recrimination.

[grantcart]

Early on based on the new proportional delegate rules, an appreciation of just how terrible Romney is as a candidate, and familiarity with just how much the Evangelicals distrust Mormons I predicted a brokered convention.

While the NYT Times and others are coming closer to my original prediction, and I still would hope that is the case and think it will be very close, a closer look at the half way mark, I revise my prediction;

I now predict that it will go down to the wire and though Santorum will coalesce the anti Romney vote and get some big victories in Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia and maybe even California, it won't be decided until the very last state. There will be Bitterness, Gnashing of Teeth and Years of Recrimination. Lots of quotes from the Bible too.

DemconWatch, now DemocraticConventionWatch, reports that at the half way point (that's right this clowns are approaching half time) Romney has only 40% of the delegates.

Details here: http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/5229/official-rnc-delegate-count

The totals are

Romney 416
Santorum 170
Gingrich 133
Paul 26
Unbound 304

While still rooting for a classic donnybrook at the Republican convention it actually looks like Romney is going to just squeak in before the bell.

Dear Santa, All I want for Christmas is a three day fight with Credentials Committee at the Republican Convention where every slate of delegates is challenged by large well founded groups of lawyers. Well the other thing is I would like the Republicans to take atleast 118 ballots to decide on their nominee, and I have been a really good boy all year long.

But if I can't have that could you please arrange it so that one side gains momentum and almost takes out the rich establishment droid but that it comes down to the very last state, and that state will determine whether or not there is a great and lasting fissure in the Republican Party that would last for years ?

Pleaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase?


While Romney's 40% and his declining momentum would SEEM to indicate that he will fall short the real story is the stunning incompetence of Santorum. Wikipedia shows that Santorum is doing better the longer the process goes on;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

Early Contests Romney 8, Santorum 4, Gingrich 1
Super Tuesday Romney 7, Santorum 3, Gingrich 1
Mid March Romney 5, Santorum 3, and Ron Paul 1 (evidently he won the Virgin Islands)

It appears that Romney is slowing and that as we get into April where the rules switch back to winner take all, the non Romney faction would seem to be able to stall Romney short of the 1144 needed before the convention.

There are two problems.

The first is: Santorum is an idiot. His campaign never mastered the arcane rules of delegate husbanding that requires that you register delegates in each state by the particular rules of each state so in some places he will win votes and lose delegates. The second is his hubristic centric campaign where he is so determined not to pander that he goes out of the way to antagonize people. He goes to Puerto Rico and insults their fidelity to Spanish and ends up giving Romney all of the delegates, where if he had stayed and insulted the Puerto Ricans from Illinois he would have improved his chances.

The second problem is that after Illinois and Louisiana the Republicans return to winner take all either by state or congressional districts.

Here is the fucking irony.

It could very well come down to the last Primary.

The future leader of the Republican Party could very well be determined by the votes in the last winner take all primary. The other side will be embittered and angry. If Romney loses now then Mormons and his supporters will have a permanent mark of rejection on their soul. If Santorum loses the Evangelicals and the anti Romney MAJORITY of the Republican Party will be bitter.

My latest prediction; Bitterness and gnashing of teeth with anger and recriminations for years to come.

It will come down to that last final vote in a winner take all.

On June 26th the Republican Primary process ends with one final state.

Utah.

And some people say that there is no such thing as a Santa Clause.

Its begining to look a lot like Christmas.

[grantcart]

1. kick for the morning

[ThisThreadIsSatire]

2. I've been telling my wife...

I'm not lucky enough for this to happen, but hopefully the President is...

[grantcart]

3. I don't know if you have seen this but if you like satire

then you will love this guy


http://desperateblogger.com/

[RZM]

4. People say this almost every cycle

Primary fights in both parties are often bitter and primary season is always rife with predictions that this fighting will irreparably harm the party. Yet that rarely happens, because when all is said and done, all of the candidates still want to defeat the other party in November.

2008 got pretty nasty on the Democratic side, yet little real damage was done to the party. The same will be true here.

[grantcart]

5. In 2008 the campaign was between two competent politicians that got down to exsquisite arcane

discussions about policy and leadership style.

This is completely different.

The Democratic Party is comprised of various groups AA, Union, GLBT, Environmentalists and so on who have different interests but a common world view.

The Republican Party is comprised of various factions, security conservatives, economic conservities, neo cons, Evangelical/pro life, and establishment factions. These people have different world views and don't really like each other.

Democrats argue all of the time except for the short time before the election. Republicans follow their leader except when no clear leader exists and they go for fraticide like Reagan challenging Ford in 1980.

The Republican grass roots don't see this as simply an election process to win the White House but an effort to capture the leadership of the party for the future. For the Evangelicals who believe that Romney is just another version of Obama they would rather see the party go down in defeat and rebuild it, just like what happened after Goldwater. In their view by returning to ideological purity they were able to lay the foundation for the 'glorious' Ronald Reagan.

This is nothing like 2008.

[RZM]

6. Wow. I totally disagree with your characterization of 2008 as at all about 'policy'

That's of course besides your main point about the parties, which I generally agree with (though I do think that AA and GLBT have serious differences over 'world view').

The Hillary-Obama contest struck me as being very much about anything BUT policy, because the two candidates had remarkably similar policies. To me it was mostly about identity and also partly about party leadership (establishment vs. the new guy).

[grantcart]

13. Think back and I think you will remember that besides health care there were vast amount

of time spent at the debate over exactly what policy was the best for Iraq, Immigration and so on. They were two policy wonks competing for each other and there wasn't a lot of daylight between a lot of the policies but there was a lot of policy discussion.

The Republicans have yet to have a single important policy discussion at all.

Compared to 2008 the Republicans have had no policy debates at all, just trying to outcompete each other with nonsensical tax reduction and competing with who is the most 'anti-Obama'.

The world view of the leaders of the AA and GLBTs have come into much closer harmony but you are right that there remains distance on the issue of 'marriage' at the grass roots level, but that too is changing, but on the more general question of equal rights and the role of government, etc. there is commonality.

But my larger point was that the Evangelicals really hate people like Donald Trump and people like John McCain really despise people like Ron Paul and vice versa. Those kinds of divisions don't exist in the Democratic Party.

[Arkana]

16. Well, the labor unions aren't fans of the environmental lobby.

That's the only big one I can think of.

[Major Hogwash]

11. John Kerry had enough delegates by St Patrick's Day to be the Democratic nominee in 2004.

In case you didn't know that.
Kerry won a primary on March 14th that put him over the top and clinched the nomination in 2004.

[RZM]

12. I was talking more about 2008

I remember the 2004 campaign well. Kerry never really had a serious challenge.

But 2008 was different. Some people were arguing that the party was being torn apart. Remember PUMAs?

In the end it really didn't matter much. Bill and Hillary endorsed Obama, spoke at the convention, and that was that.

[olegramps]

14. Yes, but this involves religion and racism which go far beyond economics.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. I disagree. I think there are a lot of Corporate Media that has already coronated Mittens

as the nominee.

It doesn't help that Rick Santorum is an idiot!!!

I do want a brokered convention but I think it's wishful thinking at this point. Santorum screwed up with registering for the entire slate of delegates in some of these states.

We'll see, though. Anything can happen...

[briv1016]

8. Follow the money.

Once Foster Friess quits the game is over.

[denem]

9. Utah!

[grantcart]

10. Who thought that the Utah primary could bring so much joy to Democrats.

[Arkana]

15. Santorum isn't going to win the nomination--he'll lose California and probably Texas

and since California is winner take all it will put Mittens too far ahead to lose.

If Santorum had Gingrich's ego, he could upend the convention, though.

[grantcart]

17. You do realize that California has millions of bat shit crazy folks

Santorum is closing in and could win California. This is from March 8th and only has him down 6 points. He is going to win a whole bunch of other states between now and then and CA's media market is so expensive that it is unlikely that any candidate will be able to have much of an impact with ad buys.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2012/03/santorum-california-poll.html

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum is nipping at Mitt Romney's heels in the California Republican primary race, while President Obama is well-positioned to win the general election in the state, according to a recent poll.

The Public Policy Institute of California found 22% of likely Republican voters in the state back Santorum, just behind the 28% who support Romney. Santorum has gained 18 percentage points in support since December.

As the Groundhog Day-like GOP presidential primary grinds into the spring, there has been some speculation among politicos that California may finally have a role to play during its late June 2 primary. If that's so, the Republican electorate is still up for grabs: Nearly one-quarter of the state's GOP voters have


Edited to add that this poll in Texas shows Santorum up 8 points on Romney

•The question was asked, “If the Republican primary election for United States President were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were RANDOMIZE Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul ?”
◦Rick Santorum 35%
◦Mitt Romney 27%
◦Newt Gingrich 20%
◦Ron Paul 8%
◦
Undecided 10%


http://www.wparesearch.com/polling/wpa-releases-gop-presidential-ballot-in-texas/

[morningfog]

18. That would be delightful, but I think Romney will reach 1144 earlier than that.

It's all over but the personal animosity between the candidates.

[grantcart]

19. Santorum leads in Texas and is gaining in CA, both winner take all states.

[morningfog]

20. Neither are winner take all states.

CA is winner take all by district, 3 delegates per district, with a bonus 10 for the winner of the state.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/CA-R


TX is proportional based on statewide results.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R