So, do these latest polls mean Hillary's bounce is going away?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Not sure how to analyze the drop from say, +8, +9, +15

[Jarqui]

1. Shifting from registered to likely voters

probably explains some of that.

This report was premature but tries to explain the typical LV vs RV effect that they had not seen yet when they wrote the article but might be showing up above
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Thanks J !! This is very interesting

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Trump’s numbers among likely voters are unlikely to grow until Republicans are motivated to start telling pollsters they will cast ballots. In Monmouth’s new poll, Murray said, 79 percent of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with only 61 percent of GOP voters.

“For one thing, [Trump is] not a Republican,” Murray said, when asked why Republicans are saying they aren’t certain to vote. “As we’ve seen particularly over the past couple of weeks, most voters feel that he’s temperamentally unfit for office, and that’s being reinforced by leaders of their own party.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888#ixzz4H45LeNbJ
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[geek tragedy]

2. Bounce is subsiding, but the equilibrium of the race has been changed from where it was

before the conventions.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. That is what I was thinking. Got to be the effect of Trump crazy/mean talk.