Cook Political: Can Trump Catch Up?
Hillary Clinton has a solid lead in the national polls. Donald Trump is trailing in every swing state and is underperforming in states easily carried by past GOP nominees such as Georgia and Arizona. The question now is whether Clinton’s lead is durable and insurmountable.
First, we look at the data. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton leading Trump by 9 points, 47-38 percent. Of the seven polls they’ve taken this year, Clinton has averaged a lead of 8 points. The closest this race has been was in May when Trump was just three points behind Clinton 43 to 46 percent. So, what changed between May and today?
As you can see from the chart, Trump’s biggest drops came among some of his staunchest supporters - white men (he dropped 17 points), white voters without a college degree (he dropped 14 points), and Republicans (he dropped five points). Among swing voters, Trump lost big among moderates (21 points), and lost five points among white women. His drop among white women and whites with a college education were less drastic than the swings among white men and white non-college voters. In other words, his biggest drops came from those who are the easiest for him to get back.
However, even if he gets these voters back to the May level, he’s still running behind. If he brings back the white non-college men, he’s still got big problems with moderates and whites with a college education. Moreover, Clinton has solidified her base (she’s now getting 90 percent of Democrats), while Trump still can’t get his party behind him (he's getting just 81 percent of Republicans). In fact, if you plug the best college margin for Clinton (her +7 in August) and best non-college margin for Trump (his +27 from May) into the fivethirtyeight.com demographic model, Clinton picks up every single swing state, plus Georgia, and has a 363 electoral vote margin. Even if you give Trump his college margin from May (tied), and his strong showing among non-college, Clinton still easily carries the electoral college - winning every single swing state.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9830
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