My revised map. Feel free to laugh.

[RandySF]

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/3L813"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/3L813">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

[Glimmer of Hope]

1. I dig it.

[MineralMan]

2. Oh, hell. As Kansas goes, so goes Texas.

438 Electoral votes. Might as well go for broke, eh?

[rock]

12. I like your thinking

I personally believe we are being too (maybe way too) conservative on predicting the electoral votes split.

[brooklynite]

13. I heard John Podesta talk about this yesterday...

Texas is potentially winnable, but is it worth the investment of resources?

[MineralMan]

15. For me, that would depend on whether we could pick up some

House seats in that state with a strong campaign. That would make it worthwhile.

[brooklynite]

16. My book says that only TX-23 (Gallego-Hurd) is remotely competetive

[cannabis_flower]

36. I'd like to see

a poll on Texas. Last one I saw on 538 was taken before either convention and that was also before Trump stared shooting himself in the foot daily! That one had Trump 7 points ahead (June 10-20 - 32 Clinton, 39 Trump and 7 Johnson - that leaves 22 undecided I guess http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/ ) I don't know if he's that far ahead now. Of course, it could be all the Cruz people went to Trump but I'm not so sure.

[liberal N proud]

3. Take Missouri and it would be coast to coast

And a full divide of the red

[mopinko]

4. works for me.

[LAS14]

5. Sure, why not go for Missouri?

[Curtland1015]

6. Where's all the states Jill Stein will win?

and Evan McMullin?

[Fla Dem]

17. Lol!

[Dawson Leery]

7. Very possible.

Gary Johnson could give us Montana and Alaska also. Missouri could happen too.

Iowa could be trending GOP. The state is rural and is stagnant on the matter of population growth.
I would not be taken aback should Trump win there.

[sheshe2]

8. I am on the east coast....

And I love the swath of blue!

Thank you Randy!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. What makes you think Kansas and Arizona will go blue?

I find it hard to imagine either state that color in November. Are you thinking that Jill Stein and Garry Johnson will take so many votes from the Trump column that Clinton will win in those places?

[LonePirate]

10. An internal poll by incumbent GOP Rep. Yoder in KS-03 has Clinton +6 in his district (KC suburbs).

Romney won the district by 10. It's reasonable to assume Clinton has a small lead in KS-02 and KS-04. Trump is probably leading KS-01 by 10-12, though.

[dbackjon]

18. Possibly multiple polls showing Clinton leading Trump in Arizona...

If we could match the turnout among Hispanics as to whites, Arizona should always be blue.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

21. Oh, good. I didn't realize that.

[Hokie]

11. I can see Iowa before South Carolina and Kansas

We don't even know what states are going to have McMullin on the ballot yet do we? I think he is a sure thing for Utah though and that's where he could hurt Trump the most. If he could get 20% in Utah Clinton could win.

[whatthehey]

14. And just a bit high...in Major League parlance

No chance 15EV:

KS
SC

Little chance 33EV:

UT (only if the Maguffin catches fire with Mormons and splits the vote)
GA (yes I've seen the polls but there's always one "ooh a Dixie state could flip!" red herring every cycle)
IN (08 was a fluke with record youth/minority turnout)

Will need luck but plausible 55EV:

NC (demographics and HB2 backlash?)
AZ (demographics finally come through?)
FL (never easy to call)

Likely but some risk 31EV:
OH
VA

Good news though - she'd have to lose every single one of all the above to lose, and with the best political minds in the country running the campaign with an unmatched data arsenal, if they start seeing two, much less 3 or gods help us 4, of OH VA NC and FL looking like likely losses you can guarantee a GOTV and last month push for votes like you've never seen.

Weird shit happens, but losing this one should be akin to predicting the horse Incitatus becoming Consul.

[lancer78]

44. If you don't live in a heavy red area

you don't realize how weak Trump is. My county went for Romney in 2012 85%-15%. I have YET TO SEE A SINGLE TRUMP CAMPAIGN SIGN, but have seen several Clinton/Kaine.

[whatthehey]

55. I'm in a exurban/rural NC R+8 (147/435) red district

He's not weak here. Trump signs are the ONLY signs for the GE visible yet and have grown since the primaries. I'm sure a few brave Dem signs will crop up later but his have been loud proud and ubiquitous since 2015. I pass 3 private houses with Trump FLAGS for chrissake on my commute, many more signs and countless bumper stickers. It's truly good news your deep red area is less obnoxious at the moment, but no polls have indicated that is universal. He's a weak candidate for sure, but by now most should have worked out his goal is not to expand his support or persuade the vacillating. His only, slim thank Vishnu, path is what he's doing - energizing and frothing up his angry know nothing white knuckledragger base so that they all miss a bit of happy hour at the local dive and get off their saggy asses to vote for once. He's just betting there are 70 million of them. I think he's a bit optimistic, but by fucking Enlil however many there are will drag themselves over hot coals to vote for their Fuhrer who has made ignorance, bigotry, racism and misogyny politically acceptable again. He's never been talking to us. He's not talking to the centrists now. He's screaming for the mallingering deadenders, the Aryan Brotherhood, the feckless anti-intellectuals with their inferiority complexes, the MRA kids with chips bigger than a gorilla's shoulders, the jingoistic mouthbreathers who think imaginary lines on a distorted map confer special qualities and divine approval. 65-70 million of them is what he needs, and he'll get every damned blessed one out there. All we can do is bet the under.

[Bok_Tukalo]

54. She could lose all of those and still win with 272

As long as she keeps Iowa and Nevada. And I think Virginia is stronger than those two.

[Maru Kitteh]

19. Nebraska's 2nd district will go for Hillary.

1 more electoral vote for Madam President!

[Adrahil]

20. Dude... I would love if Indiana went Blue....

But I honestly can't see it. This place is full of conservative idiots. Bayh will probably get elected, and MAYBE Gregg will take governor, but....

[DemonGoddess]

24. I'm donating directly to Gregg this month

I hope like hell he wins. We do NOT need another R governor. I figure Bayh will get it. He's well respected on both sides of the aisle.

[Adrahil]

26. I'll be volunteering for Gregg this fall. Hillary too!

Hopefully we can reverse some the damage Pence has caused this state.

[DemonGoddess]

28. I hope so!

You know, him and the jackass in KY, have both pissed off the women something fierce. I don't know ANY woman, Dem or Rep who would've voted for Pence. Not a ONE.

[oberliner]

22. Zero chance for Kansas

Not going to happen.

[MoonRiver]

23. Well, I live there and we're hearing it's in play, although still a long shot.

People are boiling mad at Brownback, and we did vote for Sebelius, twice.

[oberliner]

25. Romney won it by over 20 points

And Brownback was elected to a second term as governor just two years ago, in spite of the destruction he wrought on the state during his first term.

Trust me, we aren't winning Kansas.

[MoonRiver]

33. There was significant voter fraud two years ago. That's the only way he "won."

But I do agree that it probably won't go Dem.

[citood]

40. Here in Kansas, we're suckers for name recogntion

That's really all there is to it. Don't believe me, ask 5 people who Brownback ran against both times...and I mean involved, voting people. I bet at least 4 won't know without looking it up.

[MoonRiver]

48. It's not just in Kansas.

But I do believe the pain here is becoming so acute, that people are waking up, just a bit.

[chillfactor]

27. love your map....

hope it holds to be the truth!

[gademocrat7]

29. I like your map.

[RKP5637]

30. Looks good to me! n/t

[Thinkingabout]

31. Texas will probably end up in the Red column but I think Houston will be blue again.

[tom_kelly]

32. A lot of plain dumb in the middle! n/t

[forest444]

34. I like it.

But I'd substitute Iowa for Kansas.

Other than that, I think you're on to something here Randy.

[geardaddy]

35. I think Iowa would go blue before KS.

[democrattotheend]

37. Do you give Trump Maine's 2nd Congressional District?

I know it is more conservative than the state as a whole but I don't think Hillary will lose that if she wins South Carolina, Kansas and Utah. Obama won all 4 electoral votes in Maine twice, as did Kerry and Gore.

[citood]

38. I live in Kansas

Its not going Blue for the foreseeable future. I think Nebraska splits delegates like Maine, and li8kely will this time. The rest seems feasible.

[ananda]

39. Looks good to me!

I hope to see even more blue in November!

[lunamagica]

41. Not laughing here... I LOVE it!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

42. Thanks for turning Ohio blue this time.

I think that's right.

I'll be surprised if Clinton wins Kansas. She'll more likely win nearby Iowa and Missouri.

Time will tell.

[Wounded Bear]

43. Love the optimism...

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

45. Kansas but not Iowa?

Or Missouri?

And why the fuck would Maine split?

[CobaltBlue]

46. RandySF—Trade Kansas and Iowa (same-numbered electoral votes)

If you want “400” exactly—this would be more realistic.

It needs to be noted that, since 1984, Iowa has had a Democatic tilt. The Republicans who carried the state were Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, with their 1984 and 2004 re-elections, and they won the state with lower percentage-points margins than the ones they received in the U.S. Popular Vote.

If a Democrat is winning the presidency…Iowa carries. Along with New Mexico, Iowa was the only other state which carried for popular-vote winners Al Gore (2000) and George W. Bush (2004)—and did so very closely to the popular-vote percentage-points margins. It tilts to the Ds by about +2.

Donald Trump is not going to win a Republican pickup of Iowa without winning a Republican pickup of both the Electoral College and the U.S. Popular Vote.


These recent Iowa polls are not comporting to the recent presidential election cycles and how the state has performed. I dismiss them.

[phleshdef]

47. I would trade Iowa and Kansas and give her 1 more EC vote from Nebraska.

[Demsrule86]

49. It is within the realm of possibility.

Hell, we could get Texas too...and I don't think Trump will get Iowa.

[Peacetrain]

50. I think Iowa will swing blue also

If we are going bold..lets go all out

[Botany]

51. Texas, Missouri, and Iowa might go blue too

Texas is almost 40% Hispanic.

West VA, KY, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Idaho are Trump's firewall.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

52. Ranking the possible pickups

Clinton's base is 242 EVs, representing the 17 states plus D.C. that have gone D in every election since 1992: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, WA and WI.

Likeliest Clinton pickups (in order)
VA (13)
NH (4)
CO (9)
NM (5)
FL (29)
NV (6)
OH (18)
NC (15)
IA (6)

That's 105, bringing Clinton to 347.

Longer shots:
AZ (11)
GA (16)
UT (6)
IN (11)
NE 2nd CD (1)

Another 45, with a 392 total.

Longest shots:

SC (9)
MO (10)

411 EVs. Possible -- maybe a 15% chance at this point?

[kaiden]

53. Switch Kansas and Texas and you're good to go.