Presidential candidates leading polls at this point in the campaign have almost always won

[DonViejo]

by Andrew Prokop @awprokop Aug 11, 2016, 10:10a

-snip-

So when, you might wonder, should we really start trusting the polls again?

The answer: right about now.

We are two weeks out from the final day of the Democratic convention. And according to historical research by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, this is usually the time that the convention fog finally lifts and the polls become more predictive.

"Although the convention season is the time for multiple bounces in the polls, one party ends up with an advantage when the dust clears. And this gain is a net convention bump rather than a bounce," Erikson and Wlezien write in their book The Timeline of Presidential Elections.

-snip-

Polling two weeks after the convention tends to look a lot more like the eventual outcome

-snip-

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/11/12426346/trump-polls-today

[question everything]

1. Sadly, I think that Dukakis broke this rule in 1988

but, let's hope that this really was an aberration.

[snooper2]

2. Gore had Chimpy by 8 or 9 points at this point in time

[MFM008]

3. Bush got a bump

But then it disappeared.

[uponit7771]

5. crap, I thought the only exception was dukakis

[uponit7771]

4. That's about when the candidates define themselves and then enforce it by time debates come