Poll: Trump ahead by 3 in SC.

[RandySF]

PPP's newest South Carolina poll* finds that the state is trending toward being competitive in the Presidential race this year, just like in neighboring Georgia. Donald Trump has only a 2 point lead with 41% to 39% for Hillary Clinton, 5% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein.

The closeness is a function of Democrats being a lot happier with their party's candidate than Republicans are with theirs. Clinton is winning 84% of the Democratic vote, compared to Trump's 77% of the Republican vote. Although neither candidate is well liked by voters in the state Trump's favorability, at 38% positive and 56% negative, comes in slightly worse than Clinton's at 38/55.

Whether Democrats end up winning South Carolina in the Presidential race this fall or not, the generational differences in the state portend well for the party in the decades ahead. Trump is only ahead because of a massive advantage among seniors in the state at 58/30. When you look at everyone in the electorate below the age of 65, Clinton leads Trump 41/36. That suggests the potential for the Palmetto State to become much more of a battleground in the years ahead, just as in migration and the increasing diversity of the electorate has done in Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clintontrump-race-tight-in-south-carolina.html

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. I can't understand why anybody would support

Trump. It makes no sense, he's an obvious fraud and defective merchandise.

[Frances]

2. South Carolina is one of the most conservative states in the US

It's incredible to me that the Republican is leading the Democrat by only 3 percentage points

This is good news!

[Person 2713]

5. Agree!

[Kaleva]

8. People can trick themselves into believing most anything.

It's human nature.

[whatthehey]

3. SC putative purple status was dangled last time too

It's not much more likely this time either.

[lancer78]

4. That was 4 years ago

every month, 90,000 minorities turn 18 around the country. Demographics have always been the future, and demographics are on our side.

[apnu]

6. Yup! Women and minorities are going to save America from white men

And I say this as a straight white male.

[whatthehey]

11. But the youth turnout sucks and the gap we need to close is huge

2024 maybe, but I don't see 16 happening in SC.

[GoCubsGo]

7. No. It really wasn't "dangled" last time.

There was little doubt that South Carolina would stay bright red. I say that as a long-time resident of the state. This time, it may happen, however. There are still plenty of uneducated, racist rubes here who will vote for Trump, but a lot of the republicans here are retiree transplants from the Northeast. They are more like the Romneys and Bushes than they are the blatant racist/misogynist types. They are embarrassed by Trump, and there is no way in hell they are going to vote for him. Trump will likely still win this state, but I am not in the least bit surprised that the race is this close.

[whatthehey]

10. Au contraire

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002681664

It's fairly typical for a deep red state (and it must be said a deep blue one too) to be polled much closer a few months ahead of the election and get people overexcited.

Will demographice help? Of course, but given how red it generally is, into double digits, and the poor turnout of the younger blocs where diversity is increasing fastest, it would take Trump crapping on both US AND Confederate flags while proposing closing the VA and defaulting on military pensions for him to lose SC this time, and I'd not be too hopeful for 2020 either.

[GoCubsGo]

15. Karl Rove & Co.? Really?

That's what you're going by? And, Business Insider is a clickbait site. Sorry. Not buying it. As I said, I live in South Carolina. I saw what went on first-hand. I don't need some cherry-picked polls from Turdblossom to tell me otherwise.

[GoCubsGo]

17. I know what the polls said. I saw them 4 years ago.

Nobody here is going to take seriously anything with KKKarl Rove's name on it. And, I sure as hell am not going to waste any more time on you and your nastiness. Good day.

[RandySF]

9. Obama never really tried for SC

Though he could have made a play in 2008 if he wanted to. That was eight years ago and I'm sure tines have changed.

[Ace Rothstein]

13. It doesn't even need to be purple.

If South Carolina is Trump +5 or less then Hillary probably wins by 9-10 points nationwide.

[axiom3]

12. More bad news for the Don

He is already losing AZ and GA, which only reduces his chances of victory further. If he also loses SC, he can kiss the election goodbye. He needs to not only win all of the swing states, but must also flip several blue states too, which is pretty much impossible at this point.

[CobaltBlue]

14. Compare South Carolina to Georgia

In the last three presidential elections—2004, 2008, and 2012—Georgia and South Carolina have averaged 2.31 percentage points in their margins spread from each other.

Election 2004
• Georgia — R+16.60
• South Carolina — R+17.08
(Spread: 0.48)

Election 2008
• Georgia — R+5.20
• South Carolina — R+8.98
(Spread: 3.78)

Election 2012
• Georgia — R+7.80
• South Carolina — R+10.47
(Spread: 2.67)


Math: 0.48 + 3.78 + 2.67 = 6.93; and 6.93 divided by 3 = 2.31.


If Hillary Clinton wins a Democratic pickup of Georgia and carries it by D+4 … that may be enough to also flip South Carolina.

[book_worm]

18. As the old racists die off many southern states will begin to go purple

or even blue.