Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump in several swing House districts
Down-ballot races are always driven by the presidential race, with performance in House races closely tied to presidential performance. With the country getting more polarized overall, this trend only increases. As Dave Wasserman notes, “Today, rates of split-ticket voting are at all-time lows and House candidates are defined by their party and the top of the ticket more than ever.”
For example, in 2008 and 2012, the national average difference in support between the top of the ticket and the House was only 1.9%. In 2014, 93% of the outcomes in House races followed the 2012 presidential result.
The 2016 election is a nationalized race defined by Donald Trump, and the national polls have Clinton in a clear lead […]
Recent DCCC polling shows that this reality is also playing out in the swing districts:
In CA-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 6 points
In CA-25: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 12 points
In CO-06: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points
In FL-07: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points
In FL-26: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points
In IL-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 31 points
In MN-03: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points
Donald Trump’s likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country.
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