Trump's other polling headache

[cali]

Another traditional Republican advantage may be going by the wayside this year: Donald Trump, falling perilously behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, isn’t getting the standard “likely voter” bump that usually boosts GOP candidates in the closing weeks of the election.

Every four years around Labor Day, the major national pollsters begin an effort to discern which voters will actually show up at the polls and cast ballots in the presidential race. And when the polls switch from measuring the preferences of all registered voters to those most likely to turn out — a smaller pool of voters — it typically results in improved standing for the GOP candidate.

That’s because established Republican constituencies — namely older voters, but also sometimes whites, wealthier and more educated voters — turn out at higher rates than some core Democratic demographic groups, like younger voters. According to the Census’ Current Population Survey, only 45 percent of U.S. citizens aged 18 to 29 cast ballots in 2012, compared with 68 percent of those 45 to 64, and 72 percent of senior citizens 65 and older.

But while the switch to likely voters in public polling is just beginning, all indications are that Trump won’t run better among the voters who will actually turn out this fall, compared with the universe of all Americans on the voting rolls.

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What’s more likely happening is that Trump — viewed unfavorably by nearly two-thirds of voters — isn’t motivating enough Republican or Republican-leaning voters the way previous GOP nominees have. Polls show Clinton supporters and Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about participating in the general election as Trump backers and Republicans — if not more so.

That’s a big turnaround from four years ago, when despite President Barack Obama’s overall advantage among the electorate, Republicans and voters who said they supported former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were the more enthusiastic and motivated group.


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read:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888

[riversedge]

1. Polls show Clinton supporters and Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about participating in the g

......... Polls show Clinton supporters and Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about participating in the general election as Trump backers and Republicans — if not more so.

[cali]

2. Yeah, I think this is quite significant- but we'll know more after Labor Day

Of course dog only knows what Trump will do in the intervening weeks between now and then.

[beachbum bob]

3. we have trump to thanks who is driving up democratic support for hillary along with

independents and dissatisfied republicans. every time he speaks he creates more hillary voters and he is so narcissistic he ignores the reality...

awesome....all gop has to throw at hillary are emails and Benghazi .......the list of trump's weaknesses/errors is so fricken long....it becomes difficult at time to zero on just a few

[Hortensis]

4. So new, more dependable voter turnout figures mid September,

and current indicators suggest Republican numbers will not be good.

Oh my! Please, please... Can't wait. Lower conservative turnout would of course mean everything to down-ballot races.