More State Polls, Please…

[CobaltBlue]

Last edited Tue Aug 9, 2016, 12:42 AM - Edit history (1)

Monday, August 8, 2016 | We are three months from the November 8, 2016 United States presidential election. And, over the last few days, and with both parties’ conventions now passed, the trajectory suggests a third consecutive Democatic Party victory—specifically a first term for Hillary Clinton to get elected the nation’s 45th president.

Since the U.S. Popular Vote was first recorded with the corrupt election of 1824, the national margins shifts for elections following a president’s second-term victory have tended to be more dramatic than the margins shift for those re-elected to a second term. We are looking at that taking shape here in 2016. Rather than a 3- to 5-point national shift, we are looking at numbers suggesting an additional +6 to +11; so, rather than +4 for a 2012 Barack Obama, we could get between +10 to +15 for a 2016 Hillary Clinton.

We are going to need every state poll we can get.

The ones I find most urgent:

• North Carolina

• Georgia

• Arizona

• Missouri

• Indiana

— Nebraska #02 (Omaha)

• Montana

• South Carolina

• Texas

— Nebraska #01 (Lincoln)

• Utah

• South Dakota

• North Dakota

• Nebraska (statewide and the 3rd Congressional
District)

• Kansas



I would like every state. But these stand out. Those plains states have carried the same as Indiana in every presidential election since 1920 (with the only exception 2008; Obama did flip Nebraska #02 with Indiana). South Carolina runs only about 3 points more Republican than Georgia. And if Hillary Clinton wins nationally by +13, Texas is on the verge of flipping. If she hits +15, I think it will flip.

[oberliner]

1. There are only 3 state polls that matter

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

If she wins those three, she wins the election.

[rjsquirrel]

2. Correct

You can virtually extrapolate non swing state results from the national average. Polls are expensive to do. That's why there aren't more of them -- it's a non-story most of the time. If Clinton remains even close in places like Georgia or Arizona, she's got it in the bag by a mile already with the foreseeing states.

There area few non-swings that are volatile given the candidates - Utah and New Hampshire, I'd say.

[Cicada]

4. If hillary wins any one of the three its winner winner chicken dinner

[onehandle]

3. The current state polls are even better for her and are far more indicative of a November win.

National polls are fun, but don't mean much until after Labor Day.

That being said, the national poll trend is massively in her favor.