TPM: Clinton leads Trump by 10 points in PA, her second double-digit lead in four days

[misterhighwasted]

Talking Points Memo ?@TPM
Clinton leads Trump by 10 points in PA, her second double-digit lead in four days

http://bit.ly/2b3BWuT

[Moostache]

1. Public Service Announcement: GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!!!!

Things are never as great as they seem on the wings of good poll #'s and never as dire as they seem on the anvil of bad poll #'s. There is a ton of time left in this race and complacency more than anything else is the threat to guard against.

Get Out The Vote!!! THAT we can control and if we do, we win, period.
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!
Get Out The Vote!!!

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Yup

PA and not OH or FL is the must get for Trumpsky. Without PA he has to sweep the 10 swing states including places like NV, VA, and Iowa.

[CobaltBlue]

3. A 2008 Barack Obama carried Pennsylvania by +10.32

He won nationally, in a Democratic pickup year, by +7.26.

My guess is that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump nationally be being able to reach +10. (It could be +9. But I think, with three months from today being Election Day, there is still room for that national margin to grow.)

Whatever will be Hillary Clinton's popular-vote margin…add up to +3 for the margin by which she will carry Pennsylvania.

If she wins nationally by +10…Pennsylvania would end up +12 or +13.

[kimbutgar]

4. I think Cheeto will win PA unfortunately

I have seen too many videos showing voters of all ages in PA saying they'll vote for cheet. Only one person featured in these videos said they would vote for Hillary. I think it was on full frontal and the young Turks show who interviewed people who said Cheeto is their man.

But the election is 3 months away Cheeto could implode or have a Face in the Crowd moment which finishes him off. I really hope that happens. It would be delicious to savor him eating crow.

[CobaltBlue]

6. kimbutgar—No.

The last time a Democrat won the presidency while Pennsylvania carried for the losing Republican was in 1948.

That year Thomas Dewey's Republican-carried states were some which routinely carry nowadays for Democrats. (Back then, the Democrats' base states were today's Republicans'.) Among those Dewey carried: his home state New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland, and Oregon.

Since after the 1940s, Pennsylvania has voted with a Democratic tilt. During the 60-year time frame of 1952 to 2012, Pennsylvania's margins have been more Democratic than the nation's. The winning Republicans who carried the state—Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Richard Nixon (re-election, 1972), Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984), and George Bush (1988)—all won Pennsylvania lower than their national margins.

The Republicans are not going to carry Pennsylvania unless they win the U.S. Popular Vote by about +5 or +6. (The Rs have not won the popular vote by more than George W. Bush's +2.46 in any of the last six presidential elections of 1992 to 2012.) And doing that would mean pulling in Pennsylvania to carry it by less than that +5 or +6. And if that were to happen, a number of other states—now referred to as "Blue Firewall" states—would flip with Pennsylvania.

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. Cute anecdote, but did you not read the scientific poll data before posting?

[Dawson Leery]

5. PA is hers. The state is changing.

The older Trump voters are being replaced by a younger and more diverse electorate in the eastern half of the state.