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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Mon Aug 8, 2016, 01:56 PM Aug 2016

Harry Enten of 538 is jokingly pivoting from the GE after latest poll numbers

I'm going to have to write on the Senate a lot... Aren't I? https://t.co/kYcbt13z11

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/762695805706891264

In other words, the presidential election is looking like such a rout, that he will be forced to fill article and forecasting expectations by writing about down ballot races.

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Harry Enten of 538 is jokingly pivoting from the GE after latest poll numbers (Original Post) Godhumor Aug 2016 OP
This kind of confidence really scares me. Hassin Bin Sober Aug 2016 #1
This is a bit different Godhumor Aug 2016 #2

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,333 posts)
1. This kind of confidence really scares me.
Mon Aug 8, 2016, 02:03 PM
Aug 2016

I know it's a different time and we are closer to the election. But I remember Saturday Night Live skits before 1992 joking about which poor sap Democrat would run against Bush 1 when he was riding so high after the Gulf War. I guess the good news is it was a Clinton that beat him.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
2. This is a bit different
Mon Aug 8, 2016, 02:35 PM
Aug 2016

Statistically, Trump needed to be within 3 or so after both conventions to have a realistic "no major scandal involved" chance at the election. Multiple polls showing him down by 10+ leave only major, major events or a candidate resigning add enough to swing the margin all the way back to him (Normal ebb and flow of the campaign will see the margin tighten but probably not enough to make up the whole gap.).

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