2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIt’s Too Early for Liberals to Gloat About Trump - By Michael Tomasky
Trump could calm down, Hillary could stumble, and who knows what nasty surprise Putin could uncork in October. In this election, all we know is that there is no sure thing.As I commit these words to screen, Nate Silver has Hillary Clinton at 77 percent likely to win the White House. Shes cruising toward 330-plus electoral votes. And as for Donald Trump, they havent invented a word for how bad his week has been. And that was before we learned hes married to an illegal immigrant. Its a good week to gloat if youre a liberal, but gloat weeks are exactly the weeks that make me a little nervous. Three reasons:
First, every week isnt going to be like this week. Life just doesnt work that way. Trump will have weeks when hell calm down a little. Hell always be obnoxious, of course, but he wont always launch gratuitous attacks on the infant-American community. I know we all agree now that Trump cant help himself. But I continue to suspect that there may come a time when he can help himself, and hell spend October comporting himself like Atticus Finch. In addition to this, Clinton will surely have her own bad weeks. Shell say something off-key, make a big blunder. Maybe someone will find an email from her saying, Hey, heres an idea, lets pay Iran ransom money! (More seriously, given her generally tough-minded foreign-policy posture, it seems to me just as likely that theyll find an email in which she raised concerns about paying Iran this 40-year-old debt.) And finally, who knows what Putin is holding back for an October Surprise? Im not really joking about that, alas.
Second, even with Clintons convention bounce and Khan bounce, this thing is still closer than it should be, reflecting the reality that one-third of America thinks she belongs behind bars and a significant portion of the middle third kinda-sorta agrees (the third third, of course, is in Clintons corner). And there isnt much Clinton can do to change that unless she rescues a falling baby or something. In addition, Clinton hatred will really rev up by October, and I assume that the TV ads from the anti-Clinton PACs will be numerous and brutal.
Third, theres one way at least in which the Trump campaign has finally normalized. It raised more than $80 million in July, almost as much as Clinton. Now, the question is, what in the world is he going to spend it on? He doesnt really need to buy television ads. He gets 50 of those every day for free.
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/05/it-s-too-early-for-liberals-to-gloat-about-trump.html
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... right now its just a blip because most people don't watch the US primary races
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)We are in the GE and the conventions are over. On September 17th, 2012. David Corn posted the Romney 47% comment. That ended Romney's campaign in my opinion. I think some who may have doubted Hillary in the past are surprised that she is a way better candidate than you thought she would be.
Va Lefty
(6,252 posts)The anti-Clinton PACs and Trump will get desperate and go low. The "Hillary hate machine" will amp up in October.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Glorfindel
(9,734 posts)ArtieBoy Donating Member (248 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 01:43 AM
Original message
Election 2004 = Cakewalk. Relax.
My post is a post of optimism and hope, because there are two Americas. One is the Bush America, right? Where everybody loves Bush and he could never be beaten. Then there's the other America, the one where you and I live. And where about 75% of America lives, according to a recent poll.
In the REAL America, Bush has engaged us in a war for weapons of mass destruction that his own inspector and Secretary of State now say never existed. He's taken us from a budget surplus to a deficit in the hundreds of billions. He's spent billions to launch us to Mars when here in Atlanta they're increasing taxes 120% to save the water system. His number one propagandist is up on illegal drug charges, and my mom said even Rush was bashing Bush today about sending us to Mars while we have a deficit! And his constituency is scratching their heads over this illegal immigration plan.
So in conclusion I would like to say that we're wringing our hands for nothing. I get the feeling we could run a mossy rock and win against Bush this time. And we're gonna beat him, and we'll beat him again, and we'll beat him again! That's what we're gonna do! That's what you and I will do together!
:toast"
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No offense intended to DU'er ArtieBoy. Most of us were still feeling that way the day before the presidential election in November 2004. We can't ease up or take anything for granted. The Repukes will crawl through hell and/or high water to vote. They will lie, cheat, and steal. The only thing that matters to them is beating Democrats. Relax for a single minute, stay home and pout instead of voting, and we wind up with President Trump.
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)Libby2
(4,629 posts)until HRC is sworn in. But I am enjoying watching the Donald implode.
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)Why is good news always met with this sort of post?
Kathy M
(1,242 posts)Last night on Rachel Maddow show she was wondering why Don went to Maine . I happened to be scanning net last night , okay.... Don's twitter , there was a picture of don and group of people that were volunteers for Gotv . One thing I am not sure of is what type of grass root volunteer his campaign has that may not be on radar ...............
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)But, not saying you, some post this stuff because the don't like Hillary Clinton and can't admit she is doing well...get tired of it.
Kathy M
(1,242 posts)My eye has stopped twitching since numbers changed to their benefit ....... There are 3 more months and I hear negative comments from some people around me ( brother and sister in law , a friend ) then the concern starts for election day . Main reason I joined this year , have lurked off and on for a few years
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Until then, GOTV
Orsino
(37,428 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)MrScorpio
(73,631 posts)And never lose sight of the prize.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)her down.
I'm not sure where he's seeing this gloating from.
If anything, we liberals have a habit of being very pessimistic. And I'm sure most of us know and understand very well that we need to work hard as if the polls have HRC down by 10 or 15 points.
Right now it's fun to laugh at Trump and make fun of him. But I don't know anyone who really believes this election is already won.
peggysue2
(10,839 posts)No gloating or pretending this fight is wrapped up. But . . . personally I and other Hillary supporters deserve to briefly enjoy the moment.
The 90+ days left in this campaign is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen. And probably will which is why Hillary keeps doing the exhausting work of manufacturing tours, rallies and fund raisers. She's not taking anything for granted.
The Putin connection is worrisome because Putin would lo-o-o-ve himself a Trump presidency, a chance to see the US humiliated and weakened, while his own interests are courted by an arrogant dunce. Frightening scenario.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)most people seem cautiously optimistic to me
flamingdem
(39,321 posts)for the fear factor that Trump will exploit
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Trump will never "calm down" because he's literally incapable of doing so. Trump has not been any more out of control this week than he was in every other week of the campaign. Anyone who thinks this is just an act on Trump's part, or that he's capable of acting differently, is at this point clearly an idiot.
What we have here is another pundit who's insisting that the race is close no matter what the actual numbers say, because if the race isn't close there's no reason for anybody to listen to pundits talk about it.
treestar
(82,383 posts)or any conceivable Hillary stumble that will cause people to change from her to Trump. Anything bad that happens in the world - it will be seen as what would Trump do or he will say something stupid. He is not going to "calm down."