2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSenate GOP on edge over Trump’s falling polls
New polls showing Hillary Clinton opening up big leads over Donald Trump in two key battlegrounds has sparked alarm among Republicans who worry he will sink their Senate majority. Trump has had a bad two weeks, and the damage is starting to show in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, two crucial swing states.
Republican strategists and neutral political experts say if Trump loses by eight points or more in states with competitive Senate races, he will likely take Republican incumbents down with him. If Trump can keep it close then Senate Republican incumbents have a good chance of winning but if he craters, its end of story, said one Senate Republican strategist.
A WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters released Thursday showed Clinton beating Trump by 17 points in a head-to-head matchup in the Granite State and by 15 points in a four-way race with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. The same survey shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) trailing Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said it will be difficult for Ayotte to win if Clinton carries the state by eight points or more.
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http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/290474-senate-gop-on-edge-over-trumps-falling-polls
gopiscrap
(23,765 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Holding onto the Senate would be a tall order for Repugs even without Trump as the nominee just based on the electoral map. But a bad enough landslide could put the House in danger even in spite of the gerrymandering. That's still a longshot, but if Trump's collapse continues all the way to November it'll be possible.
In the event that does happen I really hope Dems do what they were accused of doing in 09 & 10, and just ram through every item on the Democratic platform without any regard for bipartisanship. Let the Repugs reap what they've sown.
liberal N proud
(60,344 posts)Years of obstruction, killing government and divisive rhetoric and then the extremism of the teabaggers has bread the Trump supporter.
Trump embodies all they have represented for decades.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)the question is how many more seats will they lose....
MineralMan
(146,331 posts)underpants
(182,879 posts)W's disastrous Presidency brought them really to rock bottom in 2006 when the Dems took the House. The media simply couldn't hide the incompetence anymore.
In 2016 the media can't help but put Trump on all the time. It drives ratings and, frankly, it's good bad TV reality. It's no longer the case that the media can't hide Trump, they created the daily MUST WATCH escapades and exhibits of life in his bubble, they have to show it. Add in that he fuels the fire with tweets and you have a perfect storm.
It's gotten to be like "The Truman Show" - How will it end?