McClatchy/Marist poll: Clinton 48 Trump 33

[Kingofalldems]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93763582.html

Ouch.

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. This is probably the most accurate so far.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. 538

538 rates this poll an A with a slight Republican bias of 0.7.

[Kingofalldems]

3. Whoa!

[uponit7771]

5. :eek: ... that's starting to get into down ballots... how many house seats up this year? tia

[Johnny2X2X]

6. More than starting

All House seats are up for election every election, Dems need to pick up 30 seats.

We can do it.

[uponit7771]

7. +1

[Skoods]

9. I'm hopeful

But recent senate polls don't link up with the presidential race. I think there's going to be a lot of ballot party splitting

[House of Roberts]

4. I'd like to see her over 50%,

but with Johnson in the mix, the Rs vote is split nicely enough.

[CobaltBlue]

8. House of Roberts—That is likely

The combined Republican-vs.-Democratic presidential votes since 2000 were between 96.25 and 99.00 percent—leaving candidates outside the two major political parties to combine for between 1.00 and 3.75 percent.

If this essentially gets repeated, here in 2016, a +15 margin of victory winning the U.S. Popular Vote would be one of the following:

• Trump 41% | ✔️ Clinton 56%

• Trump 42% | ✔️ Clinton 57%


If the two-party percentages fall below 96.25 percent, but the R-vs.-D margin ends up with +15 … one would need to adjust the numbers accordingly.