First Read: The Clinton Bounce Is Real
The Clinton bounce is real
A spate of new polling shows that the initial evidence of a significant post-convention bounce for Hillary Clinton is looking like it COULD become a sturdy lead for the Democratic nominee. A new Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with an 11 point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of Michigan voters finds a nine point lead for the former secretary of state, 41 percent to 32 percent. And a fresh WBUR/MassINC poll this morning shows Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over the GOP nominee in New Hampshire, 47 percent to 32 percent. Add that to national polls this week from NBC News|SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8), CNN/ORC (Clinton +9) and FOX News (Clinton +10). Bottom line: Trump couldn't have picked a worse week to have a DISASTROUS week. Clinton was already in the midst of a convention bump, and Trump exacerbated it with his series of unforced errors and unnecessary fights. The next question: How does the Trump campaign react in the next week, when even more national and state polls are likely to show a similar gap between the two candidates?
Will it stick until November?
Our friend Amy Walter over at the Cook Political Report had some smart observations yesterday when she noted that, for all the GOP hand-wringing in the last 24 hours, this race isn't over yet for three reasons: Both candidates are still widely disliked, Clinton's standing in the polls could be swayed either by events outside her control or by an unforced error, and plenty of voters still aren't glued to every development of the campaign. And it's been such an unpredictable few months that it's even easier than in past cycles to imagine a single development - a potential terror attack, another damaging hack, or another avoidable blunder by Clinton on handling the email scandal, for example -- shaking up Clinton's lead. Her victory depends on solidifying this post-convention bounce and holding on to it for three months. That said, the data we're starting to see suggests that she's entering the general election mode with a robust advantage.
Can Trump change? And is it worth trying?
As we reported yesterday, allies of Donald Trump - including Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani -- have been plotting an intervention with the candidate to try to convince him to drop his feud with the Khan family, stop lashing out at fellow Republicans and reset the campaign with a laser focus on Hillary Clinton. Outwardly, the campaign is trying to project a sense of normalcy, touting their good fundraising haul and new charges that the Obama administration paid a $400 million ransom to Iran for four American prisoners. (More on both of those stories below). But there's also a sense of realism within the campaign about the 70 year-old candidate's seeming inability to change the demeanor that propelled him to his celebrity. Just check out this quote from Newt Gingrich: "He can't learn what he doesn't know because he doesn't know he doesn't know it," Gingrich told the Washington Post. ""You cannot allow yourself to be drawn into fights that aren't relevant to winning the presidency." By the way, don't miss the latest reporting from Benjy Sarlin, Katy Tur and Ali Vitali on how the folks around Trump are trying to sound the alarm before it's too late.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/first-read-the-clinton-bounce-is-real/ar-BBvfDxt?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp
