We cannot get complacent

[Cane4Dems]

These recent polls have been great. Sec. Clinton seems to be in very favorable position- prime position to deliver Trump an ass-whooping come election time.

But we must remember that these are just polls- it means nothing if people do not go out and vote. Plus there are still roughly 3 months left- polls always go up and down in presidential races.

We must continue to fight on- volunteer, donate, educate....do whatever you can to help us win this election. I plan on going to a phonebank this weekend.

[emulatorloo]

1. We are not complacent.

Have fun phone banking this weekend! Thanks and

I expect most everyone here will be doing GOTV, we aren't complacent and we know this election requires us to help our voters register and get to the polls on Election Day.

[prarie deem]

2. I so agree with you.

So many here are resentfull of any posts that are not in the vein of "RAH, RAH, we are winning - everything is rosy". Yes - today we are winning but three months is an eternity in politics. I am sorry if I am a downer, but I really think that taking our eye off this guy for a moment is a mistake. Gee I hope I am wrong. Do I think we will win? I hope so. Are we ahead now? Absolutely. Can it change? Yes it can. Do we need to work right up until the finish line? Yes, yes, yes.

[helpisontheway]

3. I'm happy but not complacent

It motivates me more than ever to GOTV in November.

[Delphinus]

4. Yes!

Everyone I have conversation with I tell this we cannot think this is in the bag - we must continue to work.

[DawgHouse]

5. I doubt anyone here is the complacent type

but I agree with you that polls can change.

[democrattotheend]

6. Amen

Especially since the election is so far off and there is a very real chance Trump will not be the nominee. Hillary is very vulnerable against anyone else. We need to focus on building her up and rebutting some of the talking points against her, as well as pushing her ideas. This will help her win even if Trump drops out, and if she can win on her own strength rather than on opposition to Trump, she will have more of a mandate for her ideas.

[prarie deem]

8. Agreed!!!

I don' think they will remove him but I can easily see him getting angry and stomping off the ticket. And you are right - she would have a harder race against anyone else.

[glennward]

7. Hillary can go home for a while and prepare for who she thinks will be the real GOP candidate.

Fighting Trump anymore is a waste of time. Just let him keep talking. Let PACs and the media handle him.

[CobaltBlue]

9. Polls give context…

They are meant to give a picture, to some effect, of what may play out.

I focus on the percentage-points margins, nationwide and state-after-state, more so than percentages.

Knowing the results of Election 2012—that Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney nationally by +3.86 (you can call it +4)—plays a role in what may be the apparent 2012-to-2016 national shift.

Donald Trump needs to shift +4 and above to win a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote. (That would yield the 2012 map of the 24 states carried by Mitt Romney, worth 206 electoral votes, and win D-to-R pickups from the combined 69 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, Virginia and, the tipping-point state in both 2008 and 2012, Colorado—for a minimum of a winning 275.) Some of these national and state-after-state polls are indicating the opposite—that we are in for a national Democratic shift. This is reflected by the likes of Georgia and Arizona—both carried by Mitt Romney by an estimated +8 and +9—being in play. The first R-to-D pickup state would be North Carolina. It’s going to be the next bellwether state. Romney flipped it, in 2012, and carried by only +2.

The point of this topic thread is not lost. It is very valid. But, it is also highly encouraging for the Democrats. And that should not be denied.

[Orsino]

10. We are Democrats. We can accomplish anything!

Seroously, I think that the GOP clown diarrhea show is likely to keep us motivated, and if they somehow manage to replace Trump on the ticket the toxic fallout will do them in.

We do have a long tradition of complacency, but TrumpFear looks to be our 9/11 this year, and seems likely to drive turn-out.