538 NowCast: Hillary - 91.6% & Toupéd Fucktrumpet - 8.4%!!!!!!!!!

[MohRokTah]

If the election was held today, Hillary would almost assuredly win. Look at the map, too! Georgia and Arizona are completely white meaning complete TOSSUPS! South Carolina is turning a light pink!!!!!

The Polls Plus and Polls Only forecasts have her in the 70's, too!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[think]

1. Love trumps hate.

[SticksnStones]

2. Florida keeps getting bluer and bluer

[oberliner]

3. External events between now and election day

Will make the difference.

[SunSeeker]

21. Funny, that's what Trump's people keep saying.

The "outside events" they're hoping for are terrorist attacks and, as Trump recently said out loud, an economic crash "soon," before he would take office, so he doesn't get blamed for it. Because what's most important is how the event affects Trump, not us little people. So patriotic.

[oberliner]

23. That's definitely what they are hanging their hats on, so to speak

A terror attack, an economic crash, or some kind of additional email dump occurring close to Election Day.

[NurseJackie]

4. #StrongerTogether (Kick!)

#StrongerTogether

Go, Hillary! Beat Trump!

[Wounded Bear]

5. The popular vote number for Clinton is approaching 50%...

if she tops that, it could be game over.

[KMOD]

6. K & R

[sheshe2]

7. Woot!

[6chars]

8. A couple of close states still pink

Georgia: 48.6% Clinton, 51.4% Trump
Arizona: 50% Clinton, 50% Trump (but still pink)
and more potentially in play.

What states does Trump have locked up with more than 80% chance of winning?

Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Indiana, West Virginia. A solid base of 66 electoral votes by my count.

[6chars]

32. they're light blue now, what a relief

Last edited Fri Aug 5, 2016, 10:56 AM - Edit history (1)

Georgia Hillary 60.3-39.7!!
Arizona Hillary 55.5-44.5!

(just checked again and updated; also total 92.9-7.1)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[workinclasszero]

9. I want the white house and...

Congress too!!!!

GO DEMS!!!

[jodymarie aimee]

10. nate silver

nate silver is a god to us, but how could he predict the exact opposite just last week? If election held last week, Trump wins, today HRC. Perhaps best to abstain from all polls, even the genius one.

[MohRokTah]

12. Your concern concerning this concern is concerning. eom

[Johnny2X2X]

13. You realize he uses 3 different models right?

Only 1 ever had Trump winning and that was barely better than 50% at that.

[geek tragedy]

14. his model depends on its data, garbage in garbage out nt

[IronLionZion]

19. Welcome to DU!

[Maru Kitteh]

22. Welcome to DU. Hope you can stay a while!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. YAY for the good guys!

[ffr]

15. We need more if HRC & BS are going to pass progressive bills

We need a congress to support them. GOTV. Volunteer. Work your precinct. Work phone banks. Get that brother or sister to vote for democrats this election and take them to vote if you can.

Every vote counts.

[amuse bouche]

16. Keep it going HRC

[rtracey]

17. DONT FALL FOR THIS

Ok great, numbers look great, KEEP PUSHING THE VOTE.....KEEP GOTV PUSH... Complacency will destroy this country this time. We are seeing voter rights cases being sent to the trash heap where they belong, we are seeing Trump get extremely low support from Latinos, Blacks and other minorities, and thats great, but we still have 3 months and that is a lifetime.....keep up the pressure.....

[Xipe Totec]

18. The entire body politic leans Clinton, except for the Derp Belt. nt

[packman]

20. Wow, The Don took a hellofa hit in August

second chart down - that is amazing - talk about the bottom dropping out.

[mountain grammy]

24. While I'm relieved and happy to see this..

the fact that trump gets any more than the 14 million idiots who already voted for him makes me sick. I don't know what to think of people anymore.
We've got to win big down ticket too, and turn this country around.

Love trumps hate!

[SunSeeker]

25. If we really GET OUT THE VOTE we can flip the House!

[liberal N proud]

26. We just have to make sure everyone gets out and votes.

[beachbumbob]

27. This is they way it should look...Can trump sound less crazy?....nope...

He will keep reinforcing the opinion of not being fit....as he has no humility or humanity inside....so it will be more crazy with inciting violence at the voting booth....this will be only resort left and it's real...

[underpants]

28. A BLUE east coast? Hold it - Mississippi is light red?

MISSISSIPPI????

[6chars]

29. 92.0 - 8.0 now!

I want to see a blue Georgia

[AgadorSparticus]

30. Very nice.