Nice. PA +11, MI +9, NH +17(!), and McGinty +1 vs. Toomey

[Recursion]

Those are poll numbers I like waking up to

[C_U_L8R]

1. Trump... Meet Tipping Point

And Dems, eyes on the path and GOTV

[Lochloosa]

2. Without PA...he can't win.

[Funtatlaguy]

12. Hillary needs to win Penn by

at least Ten points to help McGinty beat Toomey.

[MoonRiver]

3. I've started looking forward to waking up and turning on the news!

These polls keep getting better and better!

[livetohike]

4. Looking good! Three more months. We will do this.

The down ticket Republicans are running scared. Trump will drag them down the drain. The Hillary ad with the children is a devastating ad.

[Cosmocat]

5. They might be a bit inflated

There are too many PA polls now to not believe Hillary has a firm lead, but hard to see double digits.

I am skeptical that McGinty beats Toomey, he just is so under the radar and the state tends to keep one D and one R senator, and she really is not the best candidate, but if there is a big Hillary wave maybe she can get it.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. She will win PA

PA has not gone R in a Presidential election since 1988. Obama beat Rmoney (a moderate R) by 5.4% in 2012 and this go-around, the candidate's race will not be an excuse for the Pennsyltucky voters. We have some teabagger types (and Toomey is one), yet Toomey is not supporting Trump so that is something to hang on him while the more sane Rs decide to go elsewhere (and not vote the top of the ticket).

What would put McGinty over the top is if Ds vote straight D ticket here in Philly (where we consistently provide the "extra" 300,000 - 400,000 vote margin towards the Ds in state totals) and call it a day. There are 600,000 registered Ds in Philly alone.

[RobinA]

10. I'd Prefer

it if McGinty were further ahead than that. It's early, though. I take polls at this point with a grain of salt. I do wish she were further ahead... Traditionally the Dems have done a piss poor job of getting down ticket people elected statewide. I've seen plenty of Toomey ads and no McGinty ads, so I hope they are just saving money for when it counts and not up to business as usual.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. +infinity

Although I'm not watching much local TV, I am an avid radio listener and Toomey (along with his PACs) has saturated the Philly area with ads. He will NOT get the Philly vote but the fact that McGinty's ads are missing is a concern. From what I understand, she is actually from Philly, but you could have fooled us! There is an old political tactic of "defining your opponent" early in the game and Toomey's ads are spewing outright exaggerations, lies, and other fabrications to do that. McGinty may be thinking of saving it up to blast out starting in September or later, but something needs to happen. I am not on the western side of the state so have no idea if that is where the ads are (which is possible) but I think a couple "baiting" ads tying Toomey to Trump as the GOP standard bearer, needs to happen.

This was my biggest issue with Sestak as well (both times - in 2010 and during the primary this year) - the lack of ads here in the Philly market, which covers the rim counties that have more indies who could be convinced to vote D.

[Cosmocat]

13. I did not post that Hillary won't win PA

I am well aware of PA I live here and have been active for some time.

It may be trending and may eventually be a blow out Hillary win, but if the election was today she would probably win by that 5 point BHO win at best.

McGintey is swimming upstream. She is not a great candidate, she is a women and we have yet to have a woman break through at the governor or senator level, and again she isn't great. Toomey is a first class POS, I have had heartburn for the last 6 years because I was a big Sestak supporter and it burns my ass we could have had a honorable, thoughtful decent progressive like him instead of Toomey.

But, Toomey has flown completely under the radar, and gerrymandering or not, this state still have 12 of 17 reps as Rs, and big R majorities in the state senate and house.

I do agree on your last paragraph, the big Philly turnout has to pull the lever for to have a shot.

Again, if it were today I would put $100 on Toomey winning, but if things hold up Trump continues to be Trump, there is no major event that allows the media to trash Hillary like the e-mail bullshit or no major terrorist attack or anything like that, she has a shot at getting past him in November.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Didn't suggest that you did say that

I am multi-generational Philadelphian and also active.

Only emphasizing that I think the margin will be higher than what happened with Obama here. And a justification as to possibly why is because of what happened with the Wolf/Corbett race -

http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/pennsylvania-elections (almost a 10% difference).

My issue with Sestak is that I saw little or no engagement by him in Philly itself. There is a problem with some of these folks actually coming into a city that will throw the whole state their way if you engage them. You can't just phone it in and expect people to know who the heck you are. And that goes for McGinty too.

And regarding our state assembly - the corruption has hit the Democrats particularly acutely but I think that we could try to build the state Senate back to D with effort. There will need to be a big GOTV push in 2020 (and get Wolf re-elected to be in during 2020) because that is the census year, and we need to get some say in drawing the lines.

[Cosmocat]

17. OK

sorry to be reactive in the reply.

I live in the middle of the state, so I am a little more attuned to the heavier "conservative" presence, though I wretch at the philly/pittsburgh with Alabama in between quip, totally unrepresentative of the overwhelming majority of the our Rs. They are koolaid drinking, drop dead R voters, but it just isn't like that deep south thing.

The Wolf/Corbett vote is an isolated incident that should be viewed as any kind of trend.

Corbett managed to be wrong on PSU on BOTH ends - didn't prosecute Sandusky because he knew it would hurt him with the strongly R PSU fan base, then turned around and interjected himself against PSU when it broke. He had VERY strong and ardrent repubilcans turn on him from that who worked hard against him.

I hold out no hope that our comically drawn district lines - congressional and state house/senate will see any meaningful reform during our lives.

The dirty secret here is that while Rs drove it, the Ds who are protected by it give lip service to how bad it is, but really have no interest in changing it.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. I hope the central PA GOP are aware

of the Trump spew just this week (while flying over it) about the Harrisburg area looking like a "war zone"!!!

The reason why I bring up the Corbett thing is that outside of the Sandusky mess, Corbett & Toomey seem to have the same "low-keyed" teabagger personality (i.e., a checklist of talking points and legislation that they dutifully support but they are not like a bombastic Cruz or Cotton or Gowdy). I remember Corbett was in office for almost a year before he even had a first major press conference.

I think what happened to Corbett was not that the PA GOP voted for Wolf, it was that they didn't vote the top of the ticket at all... And I am thinking the same is going to happen here with both Trump and possibly Toomey - but for Toomey, only if he is directly tied to Trump (even though he purportedly doesn't support him).

And regarding the districts - this is a friggin disgrace (one of my sisters lives in this district - the 7th congressional) -



The state party really needs to consider something along the lines of a "67 county strategy". I know there are some Philadelphia rim county districts that have Rs that were D and could go back to D with some GOTV (despite the line redraws).

[DanTex]

6. Good times!

[democrattotheend]

7. Who is the pollster?

[BumRushDaShow]

9. That is from various Polls

Here in PA, the new Franklin and Marshall one just came out yesterday.

[KMOD]

14. +17 in NH?

Wowza!!! Keep getting out the vote, but these polls look terrific.

[Recursion]

16. WBUR poll; probably an outlier

But still