Hillary Clinton Takes The Lead in Trump's Favorite Presidential Tracking Poll (LA Times)

[Democat]

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Donald Trump and his right wing supporters have been promoting the pro-Trump USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll because it was the last major poll that showed Trump in the lead.

Today, Hillary Clinton took the lead in that pro-Trump poll as well.
Clinton: 44.8
Trump: 44.2

This poll uses the same group of people for the entire election and has shown a strong pro-Trump bias compared to other polls. If Trump is behind in this poll, his internal numbers must be very bad.

Watch for Trump and the media to call this poll a "tie" now that Clinton has taken the lead.

[John Poet]

1. Good.

[LenaBaby61]

2. Tbh.....

I've never heard of this particular poll, and I've lived here all of my life in Southern California, I follow most things political and I do a fair share of reading about politics, and of course living here all my life I KNOW about USC. I've asked others if they've heard of this poll and no one has. Not that I know everyone in Southern California , but NO ONE I've asked about this poll has ever heard of it

[HarlequinErsatz]

3. Fwiw

As I had the poll explained to me, it's a voter volatility poll where 1/3 of the same 1000 people are asked the same questions repeatedly. Any bias is baked in, so if it was "Trump heavy" at the onset, it will continue that way. It's used as a measure of opinion change as you can see actual motion as they always ask the same people.

[groundloop]

4. Looking at the linked graph, Trump +1.5 Clinton +4.5

The graph on the linked page starts on July 10. In that time period tRump is up 1.5 (although he peaked on 7/27 at +4.7 and is now trending downward) and Clinton is up 4.5.

I'd wager that tRump doesn't realize this poll is intended to measure 'volatility'. I'm sure he's been clinging to it because he thinks it meant he was winning.