Aug 1: PPP Polling: Hillary leads Trump 45-42 in Pennsylvania

[riversedge]

August 01, 2016


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-has-narrow-lead-in-pennsylvania.html


Clinton has narrow lead in Pennsylvania





PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll, conducted entirely after the Democratic convention, finds Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead in the state. She's at 45% to 42% for Donald Trump, 4% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein. In a head to head match up just with Trump she leads by 4 points at 49-45.

Both polls- in Pennsylvania and nationally- PPP has done since the Democratic convention basically suggest that the race is back where it was in June. In late June we had Clinton up 46-42 on Trump head to head in Pennsylvania and 48-44 nationally. Clinton now leads 49-45 in Pennsylvania and 50-45 nationally so it appears everything that happened in the month of July had minimal effect on the margins between Clinton and Trump, it just helped move some undecided partisans skeptical of their party's nominees off the fence and toward the candidates they likely would have ended up with anyway.

Hillary Clinton's seen a decent improvement in her image over the last couple months in Pennsylvania. At the beginning of June she had a -21 net favorability rating in the state at 35/56, and that's now improved 8 points to -13 at 40/53. Like we saw nationally Trump's had an improvement in his numbers too but it's not as good as Clinton's- he was at -25 at 34/59 in early June and has now shifted up to -20 at 36/56 for a net 5 point improvement..................

[Cosmocat]

4. I think this is more likely reflective of where PA is

than some of these crazy polls where she has these big leads.

[Demsrule86]

39. She will win PA.

In October Real Clear Politics average poll in PA was Obama was up by 3.8 %. Obama won by 5.4 %



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

[Cosmocat]

41. That want my point

I feel reasonably good she will win here, I dont believe for a second she is up 9 like the poll that came out over the weekend.

[Loki Liesmith]

32. Within MOE is a real lead

It's not significant at a 95% level of confidence but is at ~90% confidence.

People worry about MOE too much. A lead of a few points is likely a real lead.

[TeamPooka]

52. PA is going to be tough. I have relatives there and the "T" is full of racist blue collar types

that are hicks to the max.
They are right in the middle of that part of the state
They love Trump there.
It might as well be Mississippi with some of the vile shit I hear coming out of people's mouths when I'm forced to go there for visits.

[helpisontheway]

2. That is not good. Other polls had her with larger lead. NT

[get the red out]

3. Scary

That it is that close. Yes, it's fun to watch Trump's insanity, but it appears to not have the same effect on a lot of voters.

[timlot]

5. Too close for comfort. A lead is a lead though.

Obama won by 284K in 2012.

[VMA131Marine]

15. Not really ...

Most likely, she really is in the lead. If the difference is greater than the MOE then there is a better than 95% chance she is leading. Fivethirtyeight.com's Nowcast model gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning PA if the election were held today. The most conservative Polls Plus forecast gives her a 67.7% (or 2 out of 3) chance of winning PA on election day

[VMA131Marine]

20. There are other polls that show her leading

you don't have to just rely on the one.

[Loki Liesmith]

33. Not correct.

I am a stats guy. Even outside the MOE a lead might not be real. All MOE tells you is where you can be 95% certain it's real.

[auntpurl]

18. I believe POC are underpolled in PA.

I think Philly and Pittsburgh will carry the state.

[TeddyR]

7. And a Nevada poll

Had Hillary up 1 point. The race is going to stay close. If Trump supporters haven't given up on him already they aren't going to.

President Obama won PA by 5% in 2012 and I don't expect Hillary to do better than President Obama in any state.

[Demsrule86]

40. Real Clear only show 1 polls as of the end of the month with less than five

and that s Quinnipiac which has been unreliable...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

[TeddyR]

43. I was referring to the Nevada poll that had Hillary +1

Sorry for any confusion. I frankly think that the polls will be more predictive in a couple of weeks than they are now. And I really don't think the national polls are important, unless they show Hillary with a huge lead. PA, OH, FL, IA, NV, VA, CO are the states we need to focus on.

[Demsrule86]

48. One poll...why do you gravitate to bad news?

There is really good news out there...why?

[onehandle]

8. Sounds like the Green Party candidate needs to park their ass here in Pennsylvania for a few weeks.

Like Nader did in Florida.

[democrattotheend]

9. How is she only up 3 points?

With everything Trump has said and done this past week, how is she not up at least 10?

[TeddyR]

10. Because very very few Republicans

Are going to vote for Hillary Clinton.

[Stubborn]

21. She is also unpopular.

Unfortunately, thems are the facts.

[democrattotheend]

38. Believe me, I know that

But Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008, Central Pennsylvania and all. And that was despite a lot of people in Pennsyltucky who didn't want to vote for a black man.

[John Poet]

42. In 2008, Democrats were running against an unpopular incumbent party.

That won't be the case this time, obviously.

I expect they'll win PA in the end, but it may run very close.

[democrattotheend]

45. He won it by 5 points in 2012

I never understood why Romney ceded the state until the very end.

[apcalc]

11. Too close for me.

[writes3000]

12. Very, very good news! PA will go blue again. Thanks for sharing!

[geek tragedy]

13. Is Pennsylvania more conservative than the country as a whole?

Certainly seems it's been tilting that way.

[auntpurl]

17. As a native Philadelphian, I think POC are under-polled.

I believe Philly and Pittsburgh will carry the state, as they did for Obama. Young people will also be key - I hope Bernie does some stumping there.

The rest of the state might as well be Alabama.

[geek tragedy]

19. The Clinton campaign doesn't appear terribly worried--they're spending more money in Iowa and

Colorado than in PA.

Their polling is generally better than public polling.

[auntpurl]

30. Well, they do say

Republicans vote when they're ahead, Dems vote when they're behind. Republicans, because they are often authoritarians, get demoralized if they're losing and don't vote. So, if the polls are close and we do our jobs with GOTV, we will win.

[vadermike]

14. Also

Remember PPP a a little bit more R leaning I think by about a pint or so they are very conservative I still think she is ahead remember Suffolk said 9 pets so if u combine the two it sounds about right maybe 5 pts

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. PPP is NOT conservative. Also, PPP was the only poll that got 2012 correct.

[Loki Liesmith]

35. Believe they have been +R this cycle relative to other polls

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. I don't think this is good news at all. It should be nowhere near close. We've got work to do!

[Ryano42]

29. No Boasting, No Coasting...Work to Do!

?cb=1412859536

[DCBob]

31. That's a good sign. Clearly things are moving in Hillary's direction.

PA is an important bellweather state. If we win there is over. If not then we could have a contest.

[lancer78]

34. This poll also doesn't take into account

Trump's "Harrisburg looks like a war zone" comment.

[StevieM]

36. The fact that Pennsylvania and Ohio are so close, even when the national race is widening,

also indicates that Hillary is probably doing extremely well in other states, like Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

The map could look very different this year, even in a close race.

Of course, hopefully margins will widen across the board and HRC will win decisively.

[TeddyR]

44. Civitas/SUSA has Trump up +4

In North Carolina. Seems that state is reverting back to being Republican-friendly, which is disappointing since it is my home state.

[glennward]

46. That's not enough for me. Hope it improves. nt

[mvd]

47. Well, PA has a lot of racist and ignorant voters in..

the central part of the state, and he may be fooling some in the east and west parts with his trade talk. So I wouldn't be surprised if it is close. But I really think PA will be blue on Election Day. Trump is just going to implode more and more. Even if he did not, I think Clinton wins PA. PA has always been good to Hillary.

[ebbie15644]

49. The racism in PA is absolutely horrid

I'm not in Central PA, I'm about 13 miles east of the city of Pittsburgh and the HATRED of our president and Hillary is mind boggling. They will vote Trump no matter what

[TomCADem]

50. There is a reason Trump won GOP primary...

...going away. His build a wall rhetoric resonates.

[MFM008]

51. thought she was up by 9

Even if she isn't, why is it that here some
on DU we cant wait to get HRCs poll numbers out when they seem "TIED" ?
Every election cycle we tweak about those "battleground" states that NEVER go red
and another one is "what if the election is TIED electorally"
and its a blow out for us in the electoral
college?

pearls..............................clutched
smelling salts....................check
fainting couch.....................check

[LenaBaby61]

53. Not a big fan of PPP...

Probably spent too much time asking questions like:

1) Would you rather have head lice in your hair or eat them in your Spaghetti?

2) IF Jill Stein, Hitler or Donald Trump were drowning, whose life would you save?

3) Would you rather eat feces or have a meteorite hit your house with your family in it and they all die?