2016 Postmortem

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts) Wed Aug 3, 2016, 01:48 PM Aug 2016

538: Is Donald Trump Blowing It?

Here is a very interesting podcast from 538 today. They seem to believe that that attacks on the Khan family, the shitty convention, and the general lack of any coherent campaign are signs that Trump is in a death spiral. Its a much different tone than usual from 538. Typically they are very cautious and conservative ( not in the poltical sense) when it comes to their analysis. This one they think trump may be at the hitler in the bunker stage ( my words not theirs). They seem to be seeing something in the trends or numbers that indicate that trump is going to have an extremely difficult time closing the gap at this point.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-donald-trump-blowing-it/

7 replies

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538: Is Donald Trump Blowing It? (Original Post) Doctor Jack Aug 2016 OP

The debates are going to kill him. treestar Aug 2016 #1

If there are any, it will likely be only one, and it might not be completed. tonyt53 Aug 2016 #2

Carter refused to debate in 1980 and it hurt him in the election Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #3

I believe that Donald will appear onstage lapfog_1 Aug 2016 #4

it would be hilarious to see him being tackled drray23 Aug 2016 #5

He's had no clue about what he's doing. Of course he's blowing it. Orsino Aug 2016 #6

I think trump confuses his rallies as representative of the general population Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #7

treestar

(82,383 posts)

1. The debates are going to kill him.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 01:50 PM

Aug 2016

He already has made himself into a fool.

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)

2. If there are any, it will likely be only one, and it might not be completed.

Reply to treestar (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 01:52 PM

Aug 2016

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

3. Carter refused to debate in 1980 and it hurt him in the election

Reply to treestar (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 02:02 PM

Aug 2016

Hes damned if he does and damned if he doesnt

lapfog_1

(29,205 posts)

4. I believe that Donald will appear onstage

Reply to treestar (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 02:05 PM

Aug 2016

walk over to Hillary (to shake her hand)... and...

Try to handcuff her and perform a citizens arrest.

drray23

(7,634 posts)

5. it would be hilarious to see him being tackled

Reply to lapfog_1 (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 02:09 PM

Aug 2016

by secret service if he attempted that. I think he will just show up, make a fool of himself, attack the moderators and complai that the debate was not fair

Orsino

(37,428 posts)

6. He's had no clue about what he's doing. Of course he's blowing it.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 02:16 PM

Aug 2016

He's used to things being done for him, and perhaps his small circle of hangers-on are competent to run his real-estate interests and other hobbies. That's not a polutical machine, and without a candidate interested in the subject, none was ever going to just happen.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

7. I think trump confuses his rallies as representative of the general population

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 02:49 PM

Aug 2016

He likey says "why would i change things? Look at how much people love me." His supporters are his yes men now and i bet very little criticism or complaints actually make it to him

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