people are acting as if hillary is guaranteed to win in a landslide

[unblock]

people on both sides are acting as if trump is more of an electoral disaster for republicans than we had in 1972 or 1984, when republicans won *49* states each time.

i'm certainly enjoying having the better candidate and being ahead in the polls, but let's keep it real:

trump is down by about *5* percentage points. not 15%, not 25%, just *five*.

if trump manages to win all the "toss-up" states, in most forecast models, he wins.


most likely, republicans will manage to get trump better handled and trump will hold it together long enough to get through election day. he'll have his share of gaffes and outrages, but they'll dress him up to look somewhat respectable.

i'm still comfortable predicting a victory for hillary, but it will be nothing like the disaster for republicans that many now seem to think trump will be.

at least not an electoral disaster. a branding disaster, sure; but that's a whole nothing ballgame.

keep in mind also that winning the senate is crucial to hillary's effectiveness, certainly with respect to appointments, particularly to the supreme court. that was widely seen as quite possible long before trump clinched the nomination and that remains hardly a given.


we've still got work to do.

[BobbyDrake]

11. Not as big a mistake as excessive anxiety and demoralizing displays of fearmongering.

"Some" people need to stop trying to bring Democrats down already. The fake concern is beyond fucking obvious by now!!!

[TeddyR]

26. What "fake concern" are you talking about

And what are you accusing the OP of? I think this post is simply a dose of realism.

[BobbyDrake]

31. Nope. It's useless negativity intended to make DUers afraid and depressed.

Leave or stay, but support the nominee. Which does not include going around talking about how she'll lose.

Plenty of splinter sites for HRC haters to get their nut off at, if the urge to badmouth HRC becomes too great for "some."

[tonyt53]

2. Yeah, I've noticed that too. People still have to go vote, and not just talk about it.

[treestar]

3. she is

even they are able to fix him up somewhat, there are already examples of his bad behavior. All we have to do is GOTV and we always do that. I don't see why it's "overconfident." Or why it could lead to a loss to be so far ahead.

[unblock]

7. even models that confidently predict hillary winning don't have her winning by much.

we'll do well to get 300 electoral votes; no way are we getting 350.

the popular vote margin could be 5%, but it's very, very unlikely to be 10%.

in other words, she'll likely win, but not by a landslide.


which makes all the talk about trump dropping out seem ridiculous.

he has his chances and is very unlikely to be electorally embarrassed beyond merely losing.

[Beartracks]

4. Right. Don't gloat - Vote!

That's the corollary to "Don't boo. Vote!"



===============

[emulatorloo]

5. People are acting as if DU'ers are stupid and won't bother to GOTV

I think you underestimate the majority of DU'ers. Yes there is cause for optimism, but as far as I know most of us are taking nothing for granted. GOTV!

[unblock]

8. oh, no, i know du'ers will work hard.

but republicans are talking as if the sky is falling for them. it's not, they're merely behind.

and democrats and the media are drolling at the prospect of trump dropping out -- not gonna happen.

[emulatorloo]

10. Yeah Trump will never drop out. He seems very convinced that his strategy is working.

Happy and optimistic is what I see when I watch recent vids of him. I have no clue why folks think he will quit.

[stopbush]

6. I think Trump will lose by historically huge margins.

See, we all have our opinions.

[StraightRazor]

9. Your concern is noted...

and absolutely right the fuck on.

Nothing is a lock and anyone who thinks that things can't change in three months is nuts. Yes, he's awful and yes he's had a bad week, but he beat 16 other Republican candidates (about four of whom had serious, adult, well-funded campaigns).

Trump is no joke and American voters can and will make some dumb decisions on occasion.

I still say that which ever team gets their base out to vote wins - it will be close.

[Dem2]

12. I'm not laughing much at the jokes

Is the election over? No? Then stop acting as if it is. Hillary has had issues in the past when leading early. I think you're being a bit melodramatic, but your point is valid.

[liberalmuse]

13. Let us have this.

This election has been so horrific in so many ways that we need to have at least a moment to laugh and relax for just a damn minute. I think liberals already know how crucial it is that we get out the vote and get out and vote. We aren't stupid and we aren't going to get lax just because Trump is having a bad couple of weeks. We know the tide can turn and aren't taking anything for granted.

[unblock]

22. my post wasn't directly (only) at democrats, but also at republicans and the media

i don't know if rinse pubus really is "apoplectic", but either the media and/or rinse is exaggerating the situation.

i'm enjoying the situation, but i'm not overstating it either. it's simply nice to be in the lead and to have republicans playing defense.

[Binkie The Clown]

14. Many people undecided, on the fence, not paying attention, etc. vote for who they think will win.

It's much more accurate to ask people "Who do you think will win?" rather than "Who will you vote for." The perceived winner is virtually always the eventual winner, and people are waking up to the fact that [font size=1]t[/font]rump is a loser.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. You can not overestimate the Bandwagon Effect....

It is much more important than the complacency effect...

[Orsino]

15. Trump is falling to pieces.

So are the voting blocs we would expect to support a real GOPer.

Clinton will win in a landslide, and Trump won't stick around to see it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. Exactly! And we ought not kid ourselves: All these ReThugs bitching about Trump **WILL** still vote

for him!

We must work like HRC is 20 points behind!!

[MineralMan]

18. Of course we have to turn out and GOTV.

Who's saying anything different?

However, I'm seeing this now as more like the 1964 election, not a more recent one. You might not remember that election, but I do. The 2016 election has the potential to be almost as large a landslide. At a minimum, I expect Clinton to with with 350+ electoral votes, but it could be even higher than that, depending on how bizarre Trump ends up being between now and the election.

[unblock]

23. 350+ is a pipe dream. possible in theory, but i really can't see it happening.

i think the most plausible scenario includes us winning georgia and utah.

ok, possible, but still not at all likely.

[unitedwethrive]

19. People also hold Hillary to a much higher standard, so even a small mistake

By her campaign, or an attack by the repubs could send her numbers down. If this election has shown us anything, it's that there are many more hardcore racists in the country than most people imagined.

[unblock]

24. yes indeed. racists and sexists.

[vi5]

33. This point cannot be overstated enough....

This very scenario you laid out can and will happen. And when it does the way to counteract is to be sure there is enough of a buffer in her numbers, to be sure we have our GOTV ready so that even an issue or gaffe that causes her to drop a few points will not be disastrous.

And when this happens we will accomplish nothing by sitting on here whining about the media and unfair standards or what Trump said that was worse. That gets us nowhere and does nothing to help us win.

[lillypaddle]

20. Many of the crazies are digging (WILL dig)

their heels in the more shit they think is being thrown Donnie's way. Don't get complacent folks. Hurry up November 8th!

[MyNameGoesHere]

21. Sometime you get to look a gift horse in the mouth,

And it's a real gift. I'm taking it.

[TeamPooka]

25. Our GOTV effort is not just about the White House now. We have an opportunity to take back

the Senate and maybe even the House if the big Cheeto keeps this up for 95 more days.
GOTV and win!
Phone banking as a volunteer, canvas house to house, donate to campaigns, get it done!
We can do this.

[stopbush]

27. Guaranteed and extremely heavily favored are two different things.

We're at the extremely heavily favored stage.

[unblock]

29. it's not even just about likelihood, although yes, that's looking quite good at the moment

it's also about margin of victory in popular vote and electoral vote.

this is not going to be a blow-out and exogenous events like a terrorist attack could throw things.

at best we're ahead about 5% with around 320 electoral votes. a win is a win, but still not a landslide.

[stopbush]

36. I knew - knew - that Hillary would win the nomination after she won NV.

That's right, Nevada.

The fact that Bernie couldn't turn his NH win to his advantage in NV spoke volumes. He had no ground game, his campaign was wasting money doing stupid things (the list goes on).

In like fashion, I am very comfortable about stating that Hillary will win, based entirely on what I'm seeing happening.

[unblock]

39. hillary had the nomination sewn up before the first primary.

bernie did very well to get as far as he did, but hillary is just such a heavyweight he never really stood a chance.

i don't think her camp was ever really worried about the nomination, they just wanted it wrapped up earlier because they were looking forward to the general election.


in many ways i agree that Hillary's win in november is already baked into the process. i've argued in the past that one of the reasons republicans ended up with a nominee like trump is precisely because hillary's a shoo-in. why send your best people and a ton of funding if they're headed for a loss? same reason democrats won in 2008. absolutely no way a republican was going to win after the shrubpocalypse.

still, it's not a done deal, and a major scandal and/or a terrorist attack or something could upset the apple cart.

in any event, our lead is not huge. many states and electoral votes will still go red.

[brooklynite]

28. "most likely, republicans will manage to get trump better handled..."

Or...not.

They didn't get him "better handled" when he won the nomination in June.

They didn't get him "better handled" in the aftermath of his convention.

It's POSSIBLE that he'll change, but that would be inconsistent with every behavior he's exhibited for the past year.

[unblock]

30. trump himself made a stupid joke early on, "oh, i can do presidential"

and made as if to walk in a slow, stately manner, as if that's all being presidential is.

but it shows that, part of him gets that there's a role to play, and he knows enough about celebrity and he can see the drop in his polling numbers. i think he'll get the message and *try* to change.

the question is whether or not he can succeed.

[cutroot]

32. Everyone laughed at the stupid stuff reagan used to say

I never even dreamed that he could win. They use that as a strategy now. We need to remain vigilant. That cold November morning was a slap in the face.

[unblock]

35. i was appalled that shrub got elected, then thought for sure we'd had enough by 2004.

but oh, no, he hadn't screwed things up nearly enough, let's give him another 4 years.

sigh.

[Philly-Union-Man]

34. Always act as if we're five points down.

Fight like mad and GOTV.

No rest until the final poll closes.

[DCBob]

37. Very possible and there is nothing wrong with being optimistic.

In fact the feeling of winning generates enthusiasm plus a possible bandwagon effect.

[Starry Messenger]

38. Ever since The Terminator won my state (twice!) I take nothing for granted.

[JoePhilly]

40. Trump will NEVER win all of the "toss-up" states.

Having said that ... I do not think ANY real democrat on DU thinks we should sit back and relax.

What you will see are DU members dismissing some of the more ridiculous "OMG, TRUMP is going to win" OPs and posts that show up from time to time.

These are the posts that state some "urgent concern" and yet propose no action to deal with it ... they are just "concerned" about something.

See ... those of us who are by nature, "action oriented", might be concerned about something, but we never stop there. We immediately turn to what action we think should come next.

So if there is a "concern", or a set of concerns, state each specifically ... the propose actions ... then, we can all have a discussion.

And that's how we decide what "work to do".

[Go Vols]

41. I tend to look at what the moneyline is

If bookies are wrong, it cost them money,pollsters not so much.

Hillary is at -325 today which is a little over a 76% chance of winning.Trump is at +250 which is a little over a 28% chance of winning.I know it doesn't add up to 100,but that's how the moneyline is.

The line: https://sports.bovada.lv/politics

converter:http://www.covers.com/sportsbetting/money_lines.aspx

[Go Vols]

49. Hillary winning at 77.7% today

Trump at 26.6%

[Hekate]

42. A few days of comic relief won't cost us the election. There is lots to do, but if we ...

...become suicidally depressed -- well, crawling into a hole will also lose us the election.

[okieinpain]

43. the way it's going im really thinking he will be replaced. n/t.

[DFW]

44. Big Republican money is going to down-ticket races

They figure, probably correctly, that they have a better chance of thwarting a Democratic agenda on Capitol Hill than in the Oval Office.

[unblock]

45. They're in no real danger of losing the house

The real fight is for the senate. Hillary plus a democratic senate would be awesome for the Supreme Court!

[glennward]

46. No, we are not. That's the media. Don't fall for it. They know what they are doing.

Hillary is campaigning like she is way behind and rightly so. There are a lot of folks out here who support Trump.

[unblock]

47. A lot of replies show this is being taken personally

I wasn't referring to du in particular, and even said people on both sides. Republicans are acting like the sky is falling, and yes, the media is playing up the drama as they usually do.

[The Second Stone]

48. If they don't somehow lose Trump, they are in danger of losing

all 50 states. His meltdown has just started during the week of the Democratic convention. Since then he has insulted babies, parents of dead military members, called for Russia to hack our systems, forgotten that the Ukraine is under Russian occupation, called for sucking up to Putin, it has come out that he doesn't know why we can't use nuclear weapons. Republicans are longing for the days when Trump was lusting after his own daughter.