2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumYabba Dabba Doo Clinton 46% Trump 31%
July 30, 2016By Taegan Goddard9 Comments
The new RABA Research tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, 46% to 31%, with Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein sits at 2%.
A similar poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed Clinton ahead by only five points.
https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/30/clinton-opens-up-wide-lead-over-trump/
P.S. EVERY POLL IS A DATA POINT. I KNOW IT IS TEMPTING BUT BETTER TO NOT GET TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)It's an online poll, but they have methodologies that make this a legit data point.
Please let some of the more known polls come in Hillary +10, we all probably need the sleep.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Somewhere a Trumpist is seeing that poll and is depressed or in disbelief.
Lefthacker
(264 posts)Maybe a Trumpuppet sees this and gets depressed or dismisses the polling. However if their so called team has any, and I mean even the tiniest bit of internal organization they should have seen this coming. If they haven't expected numbers in this ballpark their camp is even more of a Keystone Cops type effort than I thought.
Hillarys team has gobs of data and internal numbers.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)same with Reuters/Ipsos
oberliner
(58,724 posts)From a group that has only been around since March of this year.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)Silver must be OK with their methodologies. And online polls were accurate in 2012, they compensate for demographics now.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think it gets 2 out of 5. As opposed to, say, PPP, which gets 5 out of 5.
Just something to consider.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)But more established polling companies tend to be more reliable for the most part. Also, online polls are often problematic.
That is not to dismiss the results of this poll entirely, but to consider the above factors.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)And I do like our chances in November.
I'm just one of those "the polls don't really mean much right now" kind of people.
treestar
(82,383 posts)who answers the house phone? That's got to be a demographic that would not be representative any more.
Mr Maru
(216 posts)We live in the backwoods of Montana. Only have a cell signal because of the booster. When the electric goes out - no cell.
treestar
(82,383 posts)I drove through some of the southernmost part of Montana on a trip out west some years ago - saw the site of Custer's Battle, Yellowstone, Devil's Tower, Mt. Rushmore. It was amazing. I really loved all the open space and the blue sky and endless yellow fields.
Mr Maru
(216 posts)A surprise snow in the night when we camped at St. Mary. It was all melted (in the lower elevations) by 9am - but just crazy beautiful. I think the high ended up being in the 50's or 60's that day.
And this a great kayaking spot.
And this is one she took on one of the trails we did a couple weeks ago.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)And I'm sure the rest of the polls coming out will look similar...YES!
TheBlackAdder
(28,209 posts).
Note: The Yabba Dabba Doo song didn't fit, so here's a funner song with dinosaurs in it.
.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)(doing my happy dance)
Go Clinton/Kaine!!!
JSup
(740 posts)...a gift horse in the mouth, but this poll (unless I fudged the addition) leaves 14% unaccounted for and, during the primaries, the unaccounted for could surprise us.
I won't be completely non-paranoid until Hillary is over 50% (which I 100% believe is possible).
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)Because if so, YAY!!!
Democat
(11,617 posts)But that doesn't mean it's right.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,123 posts). . . to keep what shouldn't be close a tight race.
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)I don't trust that this crazy jerk and his minions won't try lots of dirty tricks. GOTV GOTV GOTV
unitedwethrive
(1,997 posts)But this is way better than the other way around!