Trump +3 in Ohio, Trump +5 in Nevada

[woolldog]

Last edited Mon Jul 25, 2016, 09:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Ohio

Trump.....42
Clinton....39
Johnson...6
Stein.......2

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_72516.pdf

Nevada (Caution it's KTNV/Rassmussen

Trump.....43
Clinton....38

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/exclusive-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-trump-heck-with-post-gop-convention-leads-in-nevada

Edit: Nate Silver's polls-only forecast has Clinton 53% - Trump -46%. This is Clinton's lowest chances of winning the GE and Trump's highest, since Nate started tracking them. Jesus.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[vadermike]

1. Ugh

We are in Deep shit

[Squinch]

2. Oh, look. Tokyo Rose is back. Peddling Rasmussen.

[bettyellen]

12. Lol!

[uponit7771]

3. The spread so far nationally has Clinton up by 2 still... there's a thread on it (link)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512296534

[Cali_Democrat]

4. That means Hillary has at least a 3 point lead in Nevada

Take any Rasmussen poll and give 8 points to Hillary.

[uponit7771]

5. +1

[UMTerp01]

6. I honestly expected Trump to win Ohio

But I believe Clinton will carry Florida and lose Florida and possibly a couple others that Obama carried and still have 270+ so I'm not worried. Demographics in Ohio much more favorable to Trump.

[tman]

7. Rasmussen is a joke.

PPP is a little worrying.

[woolldog]

9. I sort of agree with you.

I usually completely disregard their national tracking poll. Not sure about this one since they teamed up with a local news station. I would not criticize anyone who disregards the Nevada poll.

[leftofcool]

8. That means she is up by six in both states.

[vadermike]

10. Ppp

Bad news We could be losing PA too I think trump may win this now unless Hillary gets a bump out of the convention which may not happen God help us

[book_worm]

15. Why don't you and wool take a break and see how the polls are after the Democratic convention.

[book_worm]

11. How come you only post bad polls? Also look at the Ohio poll...

As usual you don't point some things out like head to head it's 45-45 in Ohio--also see what the pollster wrote:

Clinton's actually seen some consolidation with her base as well,
going from a 76/13 lead with Democrats last time to now 84/11. Independents
have remained completely steady- Clinton was up 39/38 with them in June, and
she's up 41/40 with them now. Trump's 'bump' is the normal unification of his
party base following its convention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_72516.pdf

If HRC is up with independents and has gained ground with Democrats then this poll probably over sampled Republicans.

As far as Nevada--I won't comment on a Rassmussen poll.

[vadermike]

16. I hope you are right

Otherwise ugh we need to GOTV like crazy and have a successful convention !!

[book_worm]

18. It's not me it's the pollster who says this is a normal bounce after the GOP convention

and that head to head it's 45-45. Either way Ohio is a swing state and it's all within the moe. Yes, GOTV will be important and as already has been established HRC is way ahead with that as well.

[woolldog]

17. Why I typically only post bad polls?

Mainly because there are always plenty of people posting the good ones. Somehow those polls are always posted on here within minutes of hitting the wire, whereas the bad polls linger for hours and hours without being posted.

I see more information as a good thing. I don't see it as a bad thing for DUers to be informed about all the polls

[book_worm]

21. Yes, but you also seem to panic quite a bit

and it brings down other people who are pumped up regarding the convention and it makes no sense to look at post-GOP convention polls when the Democratic Convention is just starting.

[Squinch]

19. Funny, that, isn't it? Who among us can ever understand why woodog leaves that information out?

And only posts bad news.

There's another poster here who does the same thing, and the two seem to have joined at pretty much the same time.

Whatever can it mean?

[guillaumeb]

13. Three words:

Post convention upsurge.

[woolldog]

20. *fingers crossed*

this convention has to close strong.

[guillaumeb]

22. And, as has been stated many times,

people who generally agree with Democratic positions do not vote in non-presidential elections in numbers to offset the racist, bitter old white base of the GOP.

That is why the GOP is able to stop Democratic Presidents. All they need is control of one Chamber.

When HRC is elected, if the GOP still controls the House there will be endless hearings into HRCs alleged misbehavior and crimes.

[vadermike]

14. Ppp

Ppp is democratic leaning poll she could be down 6 or more omg

[StevieM]

24. PPP's polls are legitimate and not slanted towards the Democrats.

The Rassmussen poll is meaningless. Not all GOP firms' polls are cooked--but his are.

[StevieM]

23. The Rassmussen poll is meaningless. So we know nothing about Nevada. (eom)