Why the Democrats are likely to become the majority party for decades to come
HISTORY NEWS NETWORK
25 JUL 2016 AT 11:21 ET
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With the rapidly growing Latino and Hispanic population and vote in several “Red” states, the odds are increasing that the Democrats could add North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona to their total, particularly with Trump’s hostile attitude toward Mexico and Mexicans. His proposal of a wall and his vicious attack on the judge presiding over the Trump University lawsuit, who happens to be a Mexican American born in Indiana, insures that Mexican Americans, who are two-thirds of all Hispanics in America, will vote for Hillary Clinton in higher percentages than for Barack Obama in 2012. Add the growing Puerto Rican population, the second highest Hispanic numbers in America, and it seems likely that the total Hispanic vote percentage for Clinton could be higher than the 71 percent for Obama in 2012. Clinton could carry all three states, and add 42 electoral votes, making a total of 374 electoral votes against Trump gaining 164.
But a bit more long range, Texas is likely to transform back into a “Blue” state by 2024, while North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona will be even more heavily Latino and Hispanic than they are even in 2016. So add 38 Texas electoral votes and one reaches 412 electoral votes to 126 for the Republicans by 2024.
One can also add Indiana with its 11 electoral votes. Indiana, though likely to vote Republican in 2016, may become reliably “blue” by 2024 at the latest given its growing Hispanic population. In 2008 Indiana even voted for Obama (though not in 2012). That would make for 423 electoral votes for the Democrats to 115 for the GOP.
Additionally, Missouri had always been with the winner of the Presidency in the 20th century except for 1956 when it voted for Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight D. Eisenhower by a small margin of a few thousand votes. It then voted Republican for John McCain in 2008 (again like 1956 by only a few thousand votes over Barack Obama), and then completely broke the historical mode as a bellwether in 2012, when it voted much more heavily for Mitt Romney over Obama. But one must assume that Missouri might again return to the status of a bellwether state, with a growing Latino and Hispanic population, and the fact that all of its Midwestern neighbors are strongly “Blue” and have been for the last few cycles. Missouri’s ten electoral votes would give future Democratic Presidential nominees a grand total of 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republican Party.
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http://www.rawstory.com/2016/07/why-the-democrats-are-likely-to-become-the-majority-party-for-decades-to-come/
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