According to 538 Clinton's chances of winning the GE have plunged 17 points in 10 days

[woolldog]

Wow.

It was 78 - 22 on July 10 (+56 Clinton)

It is now 61 - 38 (+23 Clinton)

That is Trump has made up 33 point in 10 days in the polls only forecast.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[bettyellen]

1. Lets see after the conventions are over.

[woolldog]

3. This data isn't even taking the convention into account.

I don't know that Trump will get a bump from the convention actually. It's been horrible. But this rapid erosion in Clinton's chances is odd.

[pnwmom]

4. It's taking the Comey smear job into account. And the Dallas police killings

which, sadly, many people are blaming on Democrats.

[Cosmocat]

43. Yep, he drilled her good

Nm

[bettyellen]

6. I think a lot of people weren't certain she was definately the nominee....

I think that was confusing for many.

[Hortensis]

25. 538 also said to not get excited over midsummer polls.

The data typically get weird before the conventions. Another 538 article explains how the candidate who's been ahead in certain periods almost always wins. Hillary has been ahead by every important measure in every period from the very beginning.

Another pollster's article pointed out how the candidate leading in June virtually always wins. That also was Hillary, of course.

[citood]

39. Long Road

After the conventions, people will quit paying attentuon...go to little league games....watch the Olympics The real election season starts Sep 25 at the first debate.

[giftedgirl77]

2. Lol

[MiniMe]

5. Some of this is thanks to Comey, and some just because of the convention

[pnwmom]

7. And the Dallas Police shootings and the "blue lives matter" people blaming Dems and gun control.

[NCTraveler]

8. I remember thinking of politics like this at one point.

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

Drove me crazy and was a waste of time.

[RandySF]

9. Her chances dropped 17 points.

Or is my math off?

[jcgoldie]

11. Your math is right

The OP was either deliberately obfuscating or mathematically illiterate.

[GoCubsGo]

17. Yep.

He also equates the change in point spread with the change in "chance of winning." Not the same thing.

[woolldog]

12. The spread went from being +56 Clinton to +23 Clinton

That's an increase of 33 points for Trump.

[jcgoldie]

14. WTF

I expect to see this sort of ignorance of science at the RNC not on DU.

[MohRokTah]

16. I suggest you take a remedial mathematics course. eom

[KMOD]

13. It depends on whose math you are using.

[jcgoldie]

10. Uhm

You are counting every point twice which is ridiculous. Her "chances of winning" which was the title of your post is down 17 not 33.

[MohRokTah]

15. I've noticed you REALLY LOVE posting these negative things.

[MohRokTah]

38. I disagree with everything you've said.

She is currently kicking and will continue to kick his ever loving ass.

[TheCowsCameHome]

18. She had better get busy, and soon.

This isn't going a good as it should be.

[Kber]

19. Maybe this could help?

http://www.tutor.com/subjects/math

[Dem2]

20. Oh, you again.

Weren't you pumping a negative poll a few days ago? Relax, this thing hasn't even started yet!

[zappaman]

21. this is concerning!

Concerned!

[BobbyDrake]

24. Concernucopia!

It's overflowing with concern!

[DesertRat]

22. Concern noted

[Grassy Knoll]

23. ...

[chillfactor]

26. it will rise again...

when Hillary announces her VP pick and as the Democratic convention unfolds.

[John Poet]

40. I can't speak for elsewhere, but Hillary's "Trump in his own words" ad

was playing here in Michigan in-between the convention coverage... That ad is pretty devastating, and it's all Trump being Trump. ("blood coming out of her-- wherever" etc). Saw it several times the other day.

Earlier it had been said that she would be running few ads here, so that's changed. I expect they must be running many other places as well.

[LenaBaby61]

27. Uh uh...

They'll KEEP plunging if those leaning WAY-right Rasmussen, Gravis and Q-polls are thrown in there also.

Rasmussen continues to have tRump at least 7-8 points ahead of her in daily tracking.

PLEASE

[woolldog]

31. The 538 model adjusts for those house effects. nt

[LenaBaby61]

44. You can only....

Adjust only so much to those numbers.

Yeah, I'm going to stay not too concerned for now, and wait until after Hillary picks her VP, until after the conventions and post their first debate.

But, you're free to worry all you want right now

[NurseJackie]

28. Should I be worried? Or frightened? Or merely concerned?

So many choices.

[book_worm]

29. Oh boy! Here you go again!! panic attack.

Why don't you wait until after our convention and then see how things look.

[lapucelle]

30. Hillary's liklihood of winning will go up and down again and again

as the weeks progress. It's much too early for this to mean much.

[woolldog]

32. It's the lowest her chances of winning have been since 538 started forecasting this year's election.

[nolawarlock]

50. And it's awful numbers. Just awful.

She's already lost. Let's face it.



(I can't even with this hate)

[leftofcool]

33. You again?

[jamese777]

36. Obama beat Romney by 3.9%

That was good enough for 4.6 million more Obama votes and that would certainly be good enough for me.

[dubyadiprecession]

37. The democratic convention is going to make trumps look like amateur hour...

This ass clown show will flatline for trump in the polls.

[postatomic]

41. And this is relevant........ why?

Did you read all of the information that you linked to? There is much more to this than 'polls'. Just wondering.

[Squinch]

42. You better panic.

[Doctor Jack]

45. He's already explained why

He said that Clinton has a clear and fairly solid lead. The reason why is that its still early and anything less than a massive lead right now isn't considered to be a sure thing. His entire model is based on mathematical formulas that are very conservative, in that it refuses to say that a 5 point lead in July is insurmountable. Instead it has a lot of "lets wait and see" type of thinking behind it. However, the closer we get to the election, the more meaningful any lead in the polls will be. He says she is right around 4 or 5 points ahead right now. Obama was up by less than that in October of 2012 but was hovering around 90% in his model because of how late it was. The longer she maintains this lead the more her odds will increase.

He says that she has a pretty good lead over Trump but more time is going to have to pass before he says her lead is real and that is isn't going to fluctuate or fade. We are getting there but the middle of July isn't quite to that point yet.

[SticksnStones]

46. I think Camp Clinton is using a light touch now against Trump

...to make certain the Repubs don't pull a last minute "holy crap! We can't nominate this guy" and find a way to nominate say, Paul Ryan instead. No sense in using her biggest bombs before he's locked in.

Now that he is the nominee, now that the final window has closed for the Never Trump camp, I expect to see Hillary & Co. really turn up the heat on Trump.

And it's way to soon to worry about the numbers.

[shireen]

47. hard to take that seriously

The general election is 4 months away. I'm guessing that some folks are messing with the pollsters. There is no way in hell that 17% of the sample would change their minds in 10 days.

[RAFisher]

48. The complacency in this thread is very scary.

[nolawarlock]

49. Really?

61.8% to 38.1% in favor of Hillary is just terrible. Terrible I say. She's sure to lose with numbers like that.

[DemonGoddess]

51. Wow

I guess I must take to my fainting couch

[stopbush]

52. That's good news, actually. No one wants to peak early.

Hillary's numbers will go back up and the media will say she's surging. It's inevitable.

Better there's a lull now than in October.

[MFM008]

53. Email

Lies from the republicans.
If she can hold where she's at. She will only gain.