If Americans Perceive A World In Chaos, Will They Turn To Trump? - By Nate Silver

[DonViejo]

Sorry about the table in the article below; it wouldn't post the same way as it appears in the original article -- Don

-snip-

Donald Trump’s campaign, of course, has also struck a foreboding tone. It’s typical for the opposition party to dramatize the country’s problems, as a critique of the incumbent president’s performance. But not since Richard Nixon has a major-party candidate so explicitly run on a law-and-order theme, or so determinedly argued that the world is spinning out of control.

Polls suggest that many Americans agree with Trump: About 70 percent of them say the country is on the wrong track, and the percentage has gradually climbed this year. There’s also some contradictory evidence. A plurality of Americans say they’re better off personally than they were eight years ago, for instance, and President Obama’s approval ratings are decent, the highest they’ve been since after his re-election in late 2012.1 But put those doubts aside for a moment and assume that most Americans really do agree with Trump’s diagnosis of the problem and that they’re anxious in a way that they haven’t been since the Sept. 11 attacks. Does that mean they think Trump is the solution? Or will there be a flight to the safety of Hillary Clinton? It isn’t so clear.

I compiled data from the most recent telephone polls by ABC News, Bloomberg Politics, CBS News, CNBC, CNN, NBC News, Pew Research Center and Quinnipiac University, all conducted since the California primary on June 7. Each of them asked respondents whether they preferred Trump’s or Clinton’s approach on a series of major issues — for instance, terrorism and immigration. The items that were mentioned in at least three surveys are included in the table below.


Who will Americans trust if the world is in crisis?

ISSUE PREFER CLINTON PREFER TRUMP MARGIN
Race relations 62% 27% Clinton +35
Foreign policy 57 33 Clinton +24
Health care 52 34 Clinton +18
International crisis 54 36 Clinton +18
Middle class 48 36 Clinton +12
Immigration 50 41 Clinton +9
Trade 46 42 Clinton +4
Guns 43 41 Clinton +2
Terrorism 44 47 Trump +3
Economy/jobs 41 48 Trump +7

-snip-

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-americans-perceive-a-world-in-chaos-will-they-turn-to-trump/?ex_cid=newsletter-significant-digits

[pampango]

1. "But not since Richard Nixon has a major-party candidate so explicitly run on a law-and-order

theme, or so determinedly argued that the world is spinning out of control."

It is weird that Clinton leads on trade but Trump leads on jobs/economy. If Trump led on trade AND jobs/economy that would be consistent. But who thinks Trump would be good for the economy in any conceivable way other than possibly on trade.

[L. Coyote]

2. Reality vs. perceived reality. Who controls perceived reality? Big factor.

[treestar]

3. If they think in terms of "turning to"

someone making them safer, Hillary would have to kill him. He's so unstable. Impulsivity, ADD. That's making things more dangerous.

That the world is spinning out of control is pure spin.