National polls don't show gains for Trump per se. More about Clinton losing ground to Johnson/Stein/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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National polls don't show gains for Trump per se. More about Clinton losing ground to Johnson/Stein/undecided.
Back to national overview
National polls
Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
Who will win the presidency?
Chance of winning
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton
66.2%
Donald Trump
33.7%
FiveThirtyEight
ALAKAZARCACO FLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAME MIMNMSMOMTNENV NMNYNCNDOHOKORPA SCSDTNTXUT VAWAWVWIWYVTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC
Key
50%
60
70
80
90
Clinton
Trump
Tipping points
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton
310.3
Donald Trump
226.9
Gary Johnson
0.7
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
47.3%
Donald Trump
43.3%
Gary Johnson
8.1%
How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.