2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBefore you panic about today's polls, look at this map and some 538 numbers.
I put together the following map using 538 percentages as of right now. In dark blue, I put the most likely states for Dems to reach 270 EVs. The "crossover state" is NV, meaning that NV is the lowest probability state among the dark blue states on the map. Nate currently has NV at 68.5% for Dems. The light blue states are states where the Dems are favored by less than 68.5% (i.e. less than NV), and the light red states are where the GOP is favored by less than 68.5%.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/a0KOn
A few comments. First, the "bad news" polls from today are from FL, OH, and IA. On top of the usual warnings about giving too much weight to any individual poll numbers, especially from Quinnipiac, notice that those states are not even part of the current minimum winning coalition according to Nate's numbers. That is, we can win even if we lose all three (which I don't believe for we will). Also notice that those states are still light blue, even after todays polls, FL and OH are running about 60% Dem.
Here are the raw 538 Numbers, sorted in order of absolute probabilities. The last two columns are the cumulative Democratic and Republican electoral votes, assuming that every state from the given row and below (i.e. the states with greater certainty) goes the way that 538 predicts. So, for example, if we consider 80% the cutoff for a "lock", then Hillary starts off with 213 locked EVs, and Trump with 121, and so on.
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State Lean % EV DEM REP
1 North Carolina D 51.4 15 347 191
2 Arizona R 57.3 11 332 191
3 Ohio D 59.6 18 332 180
4 Florida D 60.4 29 314 180
5 Iowa D 61.8 6 285 180
6 Missouri R 64.5 10 279 180
7 New Hampshire D 65.4 4 279 170
8 Nevada D 68.5 6 275 170
9 Georgia R 68.5 16 269 170
10 Pennsylvania D 69.5 20 269 154
11 Virginia D 71.3 13 249 154
12 South Carolina R 71.4 9 236 154
13 Colorado D 72.7 9 236 145
14 Kansas R 76.2 6 227 145
15 South Dakota R 77.0 3 227 139
16 Alaska R 77.5 3 227 136
17 Maine D 77.7 4 227 133
18 Minnesota D 77.9 10 223 133
19 North Dakota R 78.0 3 213 133
20 Mississippi R 78.4 6 213 130
21 Montana R 78.6 3 213 124
22 Wisconsin D 80.2 10 213 121
23 Texas R 80.5 38 203 121
24 Indiana R 80.6 11 203 83
25 New Mexico D 82.3 5 203 72
26 Utah R 82.9 6 198 72
27 Oregon D 83.0 7 198 66
28 Connecticut D 83.7 7 191 66
29 Kentucky R 84.3 8 184 66
30 Michigan D 87.2 16 184 58
31 New Jersey D 88.1 14 168 58
32 Tennessee R 88.5 11 154 58
33 Washington D 88.8 12 154 47
34 Nebraska R 90.2 5 142 47
35 Delaware D 90.7 3 142 42
36 Arkansas R 91.7 6 139 42
37 Vermont D 92.2 3 139 36
38 Louisiana R 93.1 8 136 36
39 Rhode Island D 93.2 4 136 28
40 Alabama R 94.1 9 132 28
41 Wyoming R 95.1 3 132 19
42 Illinois D 95.3 20 132 16
43 Idaho R 96.1 4 112 16
44 California D 97.8 55 112 12
45 New York D 97.9 29 57 12
46 West Virginia R 98.1 5 28 12
47 Massachusetts D 98.4 11 28 7
48 Oklahoma R 98.8 7 17 7
49 Hawaii D 99.5 4 17 0
50 Maryland D 99.8 10 13 0
51 D.C. D 99.9 3 3 0
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liberal N proud
(60,339 posts)The media has taken any poll (1) and proliferated it as the one true poll.
They tend to do that anyway to boost ratings and they need to boost rating for the Clown Show in Cleveland.
Every time one of these polls comes out showing Trump catching up or leading in a state, the first reaction is "oh, my god!" The second reaction is "Wait, look at Hillary's lead." Frankly, Hillary isn't leading by enough. Frankly, I won't stop holding my breath until she piece of work, the Donald, concedes. I'm scared. Having said that, I expect to see her numbers improve in the next week, following Bernie's gracious and effective endorsement, then go down following the Republican convention, then go back up following the Democratic convention.......Then we muddle down the road to the debates. Now, THAT is something to look forward to.
ismnotwasm
(41,998 posts)Or concerned--which shouldn't suggest I don't think we have a hell of a fight on our hands
Thank you!
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)I think a lot of us who have been through this media bullshit with polls for the past few election cycles know what's up...but it's the impact on younger/first time voters that scare me.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)What the MSM's attempt at making a horse race is doing to me instead, is making me more DETERMINED to do whatever I can do to help any Dem.
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)riversedge
(70,283 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Anyone who appears to be exhibiting it falsely will earn their Ignore.
FailureToCommunicate
(14,020 posts)raven mad
(4,940 posts)A really great sig pic!!
Squinch
(50,993 posts)to be even more bad polls around the R convention, but this is a very nice reminder that we are in an excellent position.
I find myself wondering if everyone is just keeping their powder dry these weeks to ensure that Trump is the nominee, and we don't give the R's any encouragement to oust him during the convention.
We've got this.
OldHippieChick
(2,434 posts)I frankly think they do the Dems a favor in the hopes we will not stay home and yawn. We must GOTV and if we don't, it will be at our peril. Unfortunately many Dems are lazy and do not fully realize what is at stake. But if they continue to think Trump could win, they may get out of bed.
ailsagirl
(22,898 posts)...otherwise, I'd be practically complacent now. (I said practically)
IronLionZion
(45,514 posts)Demographics give us an advantage but our people need to be enthusiastic enough to turn out in big numbers. We can't take anything for granted.
I was very happy to see Hillary's people registering voters in the most liberal part of VA on Monday. We need more of that.
George II
(67,782 posts)"National Poll":
Clinton - 47.8
Trump - 42.9
Clinton up only 4.9%
Electoral College:
Clinton - 323 (60.1%)
Trump - 214 (39.9%)
Clinton up 109 or 20.2%! That's more than FOUR TIMES the margin of the meaningless national poll.
Remember folks, the Electoral College is the important thing to keep in mind!
Finally, 538 gives Clinton a 70.6% chance of winning, Trump only 29.4% chance of winning.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Those are the big 3, every 4 years.