Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings) NateSilver 2012

[Her Sister]

By NATE SILVER DECEMBER 11, 2012 10:38 AM December 11, 2012 10:38 am
Let’s start by stating the obvious: Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016.

Mrs. Clinton’s credentials as secretary of state, as a United States senator and as a politically engaged first lady would be hard for any of her Democratic or Republican rivals to match. She would have little trouble raising funds or garnering support from the Democratic officials, and she might even come close to clearing the Democratic field of serious opposition.

Mrs. Clinton made some tactical errors during the 2008 campaign — particularly, in her staff’s failure to understand the importance of contesting caucus states. But she improved considerably as a candidate over the course of the long primary, and the experience she gained would undoubtedly help her if she were to run again.

But if Mrs. Clinton runs for president in 2016, one thing is almost certain: she won’t be as popular as she is right now. Recent polls show that about 65 percent of Americans take a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while only about 30 percent have a negative one. Those are remarkably high numbers for a politician in an era when many public officials are distrusted or disliked.

But part of the reason for Mrs. Clinton’s high numbers is that, as secretary of state, she has remained largely above the partisan fray that characterizes elections and fights over domestic policy.

Over the course of her long career, the public’s views of Mrs. Clinton have shifted along with her public role. When she has been actively engaged in the hand-to-hand combat that characterizes election campaigns and battles in Congress, her favorability ratings have taken a hit, only to recover later.

Mrs. Clinton might be the most polled about American in history, other than those who have actually become president. Between the PollingReport.com database and other publicly available polling archives, I was able to identify about 500 high-quality telephone surveys that tested her favorability ratings with the public.

In the chart below, I’ve taken a moving average of Mrs. Clinton’s favorable and unfavorable ratings dating back to 1992. (The average is based on the 10 surveys that were conducted closest to the given date). The chart also highlights some of the most important moments of Mrs. Clinton’s career.

more in link: NYT: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/why-hillary-clinton-would-be-strong-in-2016-its-not-her-favorability-ratings/

[Her Sister]

1. Article written in 2012! Woah!

[Her Sister]

2. KnR!

[Cosmocat]

3. Her popularity runs in directly relation to her running for POTUS

or being a threat to run for POTUS.

This is reflective primarily of one thing, and one thing only.

Republican's putting their hate machine in full gear, directed toward her.

This is the one primary truth of politics and political discourse in this country that simply does not get recognized.

Republicans go scorched earth on whoever is the Ace of Spades for the democratic party - Bill and Hillary in the 90s, Gore once he was the nominee for 2000, Dean, then Kerry in 2004, Hillary first, then BHO in 2008, BHO full time until Benghazi, Hillary and him off and on from Bengahzi until 2015, Hillary since (and you see BHO slowly increasing in popularity now that they have their full effect on Hillary).

The media enables it 100 percent, it is always blamed on the democrat and the public gets so worn down about it they tune out to the fact (the lack of particularly) and generally side with the republicans, with democrats far to often just letting it go or, like with the 100 percent bullshit e-mail thing actually getting on board with it.

So, it isn't republicans throwing shit at the wall endlessly in out and out partisan attacks, it is because Hillary is "decisive."
So, it isn't endless race baiting and stirring of racial tensions by republicans, it is "race relations are worse now than before because of Obama!?"

Hillary is not awesome, but she is not even remotely as bad as she is made out to be. But, Rs are doing what they do, the media enables it, democrats passively allow it, this dumb as shit country goes along with it.