2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReminder: Exit-Poll Conspiracy Theories Are Totally Baseless (The Nation)
http://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/The exit poll conspiracies are now competing with the email conspiracies as the stupidest meme of this campaign season. To summarize this excellent article (from the oligarchic corporatist Nation).
1 What the conspiracy idiots are talking about, always, are discrepancies between the election results and the very first round of exit poll results, which as everyone except for conspiracy idiots knows, are highly unreliable preliminary numbers. The final exit poll results actually matched the election results pretty well this season, which is why conspiracy idiots don't talk about them.
2 The conspiracy idiots say that the reason the final exit poll numbers match well but the preliminary ones don't is because the exit poll company "adjusted" the numbers to cover up the fraud. Meaning that exit pollsters were in on the conspiracy (hey, why not, the more the merrier, right?). Which is insane, but it's also based on a lie. The original numbers aren't "unadjusted" either. All the numbers are adjusted based on demographics, just that there's more data with the final, more accurate exit poll results, and once live results start coming they can adjust to actual turnout numbers versus expected turnout numbers.
3 The conspiracy idiots say that in other countries they use exit polls to determine voter fraud, so this is evidence of fraud here. The first part is true, but (of course) people doing fraud detection don't use the inaccurate preliminary numbers (because they aren't idiots like the conspiracy theorists).
And also, even the final exit poll numbers in the primary elections aren't up to the same standards as fraud-monitoring exit polls, the methodology is too inaccurate. How do we know this? Because the guy who ran the primary exit polls also does fraud-detection exit polling in other countries, and in interviews has said very clearly that the exit poll methodology used for primaries is not up to the accuracy standards that would be required for fraud detection.
riversedge
(70,299 posts)BootinUp
(47,186 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Educate yourself...
http://electiondefensealliance.org/frequently_asked_questions_about_exit_polls
YouDig
(2,280 posts)of the same standard, according to the person who ran them, and who also runs the kinds of exit polls used to monitor for election fraud.
And especially not the preliminary numbers that the conspiracy idiots always cite for their conspiracy theories.
This shouldn't be so hard for you to grasp. You should really be able to understand it. Try. Give it a real effort. Try to grasp some of the facts. It will do you good. I believe in you.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)YouDig
(2,280 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Exit polling in the US is done be media outlets in select polling stations to be able to call races early. The methodology is completely different from elsewhere, where they are used to detect voter fraud.
Take your own advice from your title there, sport.