2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/05/pundit-accountability-the-official-2012-election-prediction-thread/Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread
Posted by Brad Plumer on November 5, 2012 at 4:39 pm
There are a lot of predictions floating around out there about who will win the presidential election on Tuesday. So why not round them all up in one place?
Place your bets, folks.
Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening. And yes, this will be a fun thread to revisit the day after the election:
Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235. In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, {Obama has} made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1.
Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212. The accuracy of my election forecasts depend on the accuracy of the presidential polls, Linzer writes. As such, a major concern heading into Election Day is the possibility that polling firms, out of fear of being wrong, are looking at the results of other published surveys and weighting or adjusting their own results to match.
Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223. Both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who dont identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, arent likely.
Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republicans campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaigns last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?
Josh Putnam, Davidson College: Obama 332, Romney 206. Everything above is based on a graduated weighted average of polls in each state conducted in 2012, Putnam wrote in explaining his methodology. The weighting is based on how old a poll is. The older the poll is the more it is discounted. The most recent poll is given full weight.
Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory. For two reasons, Cost writes. (1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again. (2) Romney leads among independents.
Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261. Ive given Romney the states that are essentially tied, in which hes led in at least some recent polls. But in states where Romney has trailed in nearly all polls, and in some cases by a comfortable margin, Im giving them to Obama.
Ross Douthat, New York Times: Obama 271, Romney 267. In general, I think that the political class tends to overestimate the power of the Hispanic bloc, whose influence is growing more slowly than many pundits and strategists acknowledge. In general, I think that the political class tends to overestimate swing voters sympathy for strident social liberalism, and to imagine a lockstep support for legal abortion among female voters that doesnt actually exist.
Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect: Obama 303, Romney 235. {I}f Obama wins on Tuesday, the political science on debates will have won out; they can shift the short-term situation, but they dont fundamentally change the direction of an election.
George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217. I guess the wild card in what Ive projected is Im projecting Minnesota to go for Romney. Now, thats the only state in the union, because Mondale held it native son Mondale held it when Romney was when Reagan was getting 49 states the only state thats voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections. But this year, theres a marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.
Ben Domenech, The Transom: Romney 278, Obama 260. In sum, I see the bottom slipping out from under Obamas feet, and a campaign hoping to hold on just long enough to salvage a slim victory, one where he is almost certain to lose the popular vote. He is underperforming among whites and independents, and particularly among those likeliest to vote. I have never believed in running the prevent defense, and Obama has been running it for months.
Dick Morris, FoxNews: Romney 325, Obama 213. It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history, Morris said. It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romneys going to win by quite a bit.
Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98. Heres a tweet from Cramer: No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin. Believe me.
Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com: Romney 311, Obama 227. Many others in the media project very favorable maps and projections for Obama but those doing so fail to realize or accept how heavily-skewed polls distort any average or analysis that relies on them.
Did we miss any notable predictions? Let us know. And be sure to add yours in comments.
dracutfire
(4 posts)I am a bit concerned about the last minute efforts of Christian Evangelical groups, which includes an big under-the-radar attempt to mobilize working class white Christians who might not have shown up in polling otherwise, and also spread their message virally through Facebook. Where I live a lot of people are voting for Romney, and I am in northern Massachusetts..
Here is my post about this.
http://bluemassgroup.com/2012/11/last-minute-romney-surge-nmb-fmwb-poll/
My guess is that Obama wins, by a margin of 20 votes and the results are not known for 3 days after the election!
babylonsister
(171,091 posts)reflection
(6,286 posts)What a great first post. This is a theory floated by Rush Limbaugh, that Christian Evangelicals for some reason don't show up on polling cross-sections. I know because the dittohead I have to sit near listens to Rush.
You must sit next to one also.
corkhead
(6,119 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)and that was when he was trying to say something unique.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)DCKit
(18,541 posts)and compared to the actual, final numbers.
I'm sure Fox Snooze will finally be vindicated of all the evil things we've ever said about them.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Cha
(297,655 posts)bookmark this to compare after all the Votes are actually counted!
Thanks babylonsistah
courseofhistory
(801 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060
Get yours in before it is too late!
I'm not sure about Indiana nad Missouri at this point, because the polls say i am wrong. But, I thought we would see a powerful anti-rape, anti-Alkin/Mourdock vote coattail for the Dems. In AZ, polling under-represents the Hispanic vote, which can help Obama in Florida and other states too.
spooky3
(34,476 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)Supersedeas
(20,630 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)Cha
(297,655 posts)leftlibdem420
(256 posts)Fuck the 1%.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)The 332 figure accounts for the shift in electoral votes from the 2010 US Census
plus the potential loss of IN, NC and 1 EV in NE (Note: I strongly believe those two states will flip back). All of the other states would remain the same as 2008. I don't honestly thing there are any states Obama can flip and if it did happen it will be a complete surprise like in 2008 (NC was the big shocker in that one).
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=97721