Does anyone have the truth about what's going on in PA?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

I've seen polls all over the place, and one or two with the race tied.

Where are you guys seeing the latest news?

[Alleycat]

1. I live in PA

even I don't know the truth. I doubt very much that Romney will carry PA. If "W" didn't do it with all the love people showed him, I don't think Romney will do it. Nobody likes Romney even those voting for him!

[rayofreason]

14. The truth is....

....no one knows the truth.

It really depends on the voter model you use to convert the raw sample into a poll. The "margin of error" is a pure statistical concept assuming that you are dealing with a normal distribution for the data, and it is completely disconnected from the voter model you use. So a poll with a margin of error of 2% could be much farther off if the voter model is wrong. That is why you have to look under the hood to see what assumptions went into the model. And we won''t know if those assumptions are correct until after the vote. So no one really knows.

The Susquehanna poll has Obama and Romney tied. But the details of the voter model are not available from their site, so I have idea how to interpret that result. What I do know is the level of pro-Obama enthusiasm is less than in 2008, so if a poll uses a 2008 voter model it will overestimate Obama's share of the vote.

One way to read the tea leaves is to look at early voter results, but since PA has no early voting, there is no way to compare now to 2008 until the election is over.

Ohio does have early voting, and the current numbers are facts, not suppositions. In 2008, McCain actually won the vote total on election day, but the early vote was strongly in Obama's favor, giving him the state. Obama is winning the early vote total again, but by a smaller margin than in 2008. So margins will be exceptionally tight, and if there is a flood of GOP voters tomorrow.....

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/1105/Early-voting-results-point-to-Obama-lead.-Does-that-matter

[mzmolly]

2. See here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

[blue neen]

9. Of course, the only poll that has them tied is Richard Mellon Scaife's rag, The Tribune Review.

Scaife is such a POS. He loses tons of money on those "newspapers" every year, just so he can spread hatred.

What a waste of good inherited money!

[MadBadger]

3. Axelrod bet his Stache on it

We are winning PA

[onehandle]

4. We got PA. nt

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. Thanks! Seems really close but I'll take it!

[tweeternik]

6. PA will go for Obama ...

take it to the bank ... AND stop fretting!

[zebe83]

7. Angus Reid poll just announced....

Obama 51 - Mittens 47

I live in Pittsburgh and I know that no one in my office has changed their vote from the last election. The same people that were for PBO in 2008 are voting for him tomorrow and the same that voted against him in 2008 are against him this year.

[Jennicut]

8. Pollster has it as 50.2% to 44.2% for the average

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-pennsylvania-president-romney-vs-obama

Obama won it by 10.3% in '08. In a closer election, 5 to 6% does not seem that off.

[AlinPA]

10. The TV and radio are completely blanketed with Romney ads. I don't think anyone is paying attention

to them anymore, though. I've seen a lot of elections and these are the most ads I have ever seen. It's absurd. The SuperPACs must have dumped $100 million to Romney's campaign.

[zebe83]

11. Agreed.....they came in way too late for anyone to pay attention...

All they did was replace the Rofus/Crist and Smith/Casey commercials.

[Cosmocat]

12. imo

The state went BIG to him four years ago. I think his margin was going to be a little lower, but still pretty big, and neither campaign did much before the last few weeks. So, when Romney got desperate looking for a way to make up for not getting Ohio and dumped more ads into PA, he got movement.

It still probably is functionally a 5 point margin, give or take a point.

Like pretty much any other key state, the President has a MUCH better ground game in the state.

I think it will reflect the same overall drawback he will see nationally, relative to what it was the first go around.

Again, not 9-10 points, probably 4 if it isn't a great night for him, to 6 if he does OK.

[Condem]

13. I think Pennsylvania will set the tone, Tuesday night.

If it's called early, like '08, it will be a short night for Mr. Romney. He's spent a ton of $$.