Why is the Main $tream Media calling it for Hillary today? ...

[aggiesal]

There are 4051 total pledged delegates.
The Democratic National Convention requires the nominee win 2383 pledged delegates to win the nomination.
That 58.82% of the total pledged delegates.

You see, the Democratic Party wants the strongest candidate possible heading into the general election,
so they wanted a candidate that can win the party delegates by a margin of at least 17.65% (58.82% - 41.17%),
to show that the party has unanimous support behind its' nominee.

Hillary current has 1,811 pledge delegates and needs 572 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates.
So Hillary would have to win 80% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.
I'm not saying that she can't win 80%, but it's highly improbable.

So, what happens at the convention after the first ballot is taken and Hillary does not reach the
2383 pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination?

If the nomination is not secured after the first ballot, then pledged delegates are released from their
pledged obligation and are free to vote for any candidate.

This is where the super-delegates come in.

Now I don't know if the super-delegates are allowed to vote before the pledged delegates are released
from their pledged obligation.
If not, then Hillary will definitely reach the milestone 2383 needed to secure the nomination.
If they are, then it becomes a contested nomination and anything can happen.

It will be fun to watch.

If anyone knows more details, please provide so I can understand the convention when it happens.

In the mean time, I will not trust the M$M.

[tonyt53]

1. If you think that a socialist is the stronger candidate, then you really are naive.

The GOP would have a field day with that one. Few over 55 would vote for a socialist. The call was made based upon reality and is the same call that was made in 2008. A combined total of pledged and SD's is the presumed nominee. Why would any SD change to Bernie after he has ridiculed them? hell hasn't frozen over, so it won't happen.

[aggiesal]

3. Who mentioned anything about supporting a socialist? ...

This was about the M$M announcing a nominee before they've actually won.
Why?

[laserhaas]

6. If you think a $100 million oligarch who wants to get them

to heel first ....is a real Democrat

You are full of bull

Progressiveness and socialism are hand in hand

Getting $100 million while Sec. Of State

isnt representation of the people

[tonyt53]

31. Okay, how about this, a progressive or a socialist can never win over voters over 55

It is very evident that most of Bernie's supporter discount that age group as well as most minorities. We know he and they discount blacks. Also, please provide the documentation where Hillary received $100 million while SoS. Not some link to somebody's website, but absolute truth.

[laserhaas]

33. Thats a statement making too many assumptions

Of facts not in evidence.

Bernie has landslided..including getting Repubs votes

In Vermont

If the choice was Bernie or Trump...making the statement that 55+ ( and I'm one of them btw) would choose Trump

is very disingenuous

[laserhaas]

36. Sec of State dollars are deemed admitted..as a matter of law

Once she returned to the Foundation..upon leaving SoS

It is the quid pro quo conflict if interest item Bernie spoke about...Sunday

And it is extreme disigenuous to argue the amounts

Others attacked me on it and apologized as the Foundation admitted violating agreement with the administration

If you would take a step back and look at the massive baggage...without this premeditated "I'm with her" (no matter what) mindset

You would clearly see you are backing a stubborn selfish mule

Instead of a magnificent horse (that you claim is so superior to Bernie)

[HappyinLA]

2. The superdelegates vote with the pledged,

at the same time. There are plenty of youtube videos of past conventions where you can watch it work. There is absolutely no DNC rule that says that you have to win 2383 delegates from the just the pledged delegates. It's 2383 out of all delegates, pledged and unpledged.

[TimPlo]

15. Wait but back in Jan most Clinton supporters

Defended Howard Dean when he said he votes as he wants not as voters do. He said he votes for how he feels best for America. This was after VT primary and no clear winner was shown. So why did this attitude change now? Is Dean just a corrupt person for claiming SD vote as they see fit? Also back in March I saw a DNC deputy chair say that SD vote at the convention any way the wanted.

[HappyinLA]

24. They vote with the pledged,

as in "at the same time", not as in "for the person the pledged voted for".

The OP wrongly stated that first the pledged vote, then if no one wins the supers get to vote. They all vote together at the same time. So if you have a state with 30 pledged and 10 supers, when the roll gets to them, they cast 40 votes.

[eastwestdem]

4. I believe you are falling into a common trap. You can't mix and match delegates.

Last edited Tue Jun 7, 2016, 05:34 PM - Edit history (1)

You either look at total delegates, which is that 2383 number, or just pledged delegates. This includes both pledged and super delegates. So to use this number as your objective, you have to include both. This is what the AP is looking at when they called the race.

Many people don't want to consider super delegates until the convention, which is fine. But then the total number of delegates needed to get a majority of the pledged delegates is 2026, since there are 4051 total pledged delegates. So, since Hillary has 1811 pledged delegates, she needs 215 delegates more to get the majority in just this category. (With 714 left, that is 30%)

It doesn't make sense to require someone to get to a threshold which is meant to include numbers that they can't even get yet, if you don't want to consider supers. So, you either have to include them or not.

[Stuckinthebush]

25. ^^^This

Well said.

[aggiesal]

35. Thanks for your input ...

From the wikipedia page on Democratic National Convention, it states the following:

"... To secure the nomination for the Democratic party a candidate must secure 2383 [font color=red]pledged[/font] delegates. Super delegates are not considered in this tally but become germane to the process at the Democratic convention when they cast their votes."

Now, I don't believe that wikipedia is 100% accurate, but I haven't seen anything that describes what you've stated.
Can you supply a link?

[Lord Magus]

38. More from that Wikipedia article:

This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. (Learn how and when to remove these template messages)
·This article is written like a personal reflection or opinion essay that states the Wikipedia editor's particular feelings about a topic, rather than the opinions of experts. (March 2016)
·This article relies largely or entirely upon a single source. (March 2016)
·This article possibly contains original research. (March 2016)
·This article reads like an editorial or opinion piece. (March 2016)
·This article needs additional citations for verification. (March 2008)

Seems that's considered by Wikipedia itself to be a trash article that they desperately want their editors to fix.

[aggiesal]

40. I understand ...

As I stated, I don't believe wikipedia is 100% accurate.

I've been trying to find a second source for either.

I can't seem to find what the actual rules are, for determining a nominee.

If you find one, can you supply a link?

Thanks!

[aggiesal]

41. Here's another source ...

http://heavy.com/news/2016/06/did-hillary-clinton-win-clinch-nomination-associated-press-ap-delegate-count-bernie-sanders-numbers/

As of June 6, Clinton had 1,812 pledged delegates and Sanders had 1,521. In order to get the nomination [font color=red]through pledged delegates only[/font], either candidate would need [font color=red]2,383 delegates[/font].

Again, I don't know how reliable [font color=red]heavy.com[/font] is, but it's another source that states 2383 through pledged delegates.

[NCTraveler]

5. They could have called it weeks ago.

The outcome has been known for some time. They still did due diligence and waited until confirmation she had the required support.

I guarantee you won't be sitting here on November 8th claiming you don't know who has won the GE.

[TimPlo]

16. They could call it back in Nov2015 because they stacked the deck with SD since then.

Starting the primaries with a 500+ lead boosts your chances of winning as a large portion of voters vote for the winner.

[NCTraveler]

20. Sure doesn't hurt. Nt

[MohRokTah]

7. Sorry,it has NEVER worked that way.

Since 1984, when Tad Devine (Sanders' campaign manager) introduced Super Delegates, the media has AWLWAYS called the race when a candidate has reached the magic number with total delegates (pledged plus super).

You are attempting to re-write more than thee decades of historical precedence.

In addition to that, you demonstrate complete ignorance of how the voting proceeds.

ALL SUPER DELEGATES VOTE ON THE FIRST BALLOT!

[k8conant]

10. more than 30 years ago is not NEVER...

just saying.

Apparently some people have no memory.

[aggiesal]

12. No, I'm trying to understand it. n/t

[MohRokTah]

14. You obviously have zero understanding then.

All delegates vote on all ballots, including the first ballot.

Super Delegates are a part of a state's delegation and they vote with their states, thus the super delegates who have already committed to Hillary will vote for Hillary on the first ballot.

She should end up with more than 3000 delegate votes on the first ballot if Sanders plays the pissy poor loser and does not do what Hillary did in 2008 when she lost.

[aggiesal]

17. WOW, you are one rude person. ...

Don't bother responding.

[MohRokTah]

18. I'll respond.

And the rudeness of your OP deserved the response it got.

[aggiesal]

22. I write a piece trying to understand how the system works ...

Instead of reaching out and teaching those who don't know the system, you insult with statements like

"... you demonstrate complete ignorance of how the voting proceeds"

then follow that up with

"... You obviously have zero understanding then"

And I'm the rude one?

[MohRokTah]

23. I do not believe you were "trying to understand how the system works"

Not for one instant do I believe that.

[aggiesal]

27. So, now you can read minds? ...

Next to last sentence was

If anyone knows more details, please provide so I can understand the convention when it happens.

[MohRokTah]

30. I can read WTF was posted

So no, I don't buy your claim for one instant.

[aggiesal]

32. Well, others in this post, ...

were kind enough to describe where I might have gone wrong, without insulting.

Maybe you could learn something from them.

[MohRokTah]

34. I call bullshit when I smell bullshit

This OP reeked of it.

[Rex]

42. That poster

has a lot of hidden posts, if you look at a persons profile you can tell if they are worth the time to reply to.

[TimPlo]

19. Super Delegates are not bound to vote any way.

We where told this by most Clinton supporters back in Jan when people bitched about Clinton having a 500+ lead in delegates even before Sanders entered the race. Many people on this forum Sanders supporters stupid for not knowing how SD work and that they can vote anyway they want. Now you claim they have to vote for Clinton because they pledged it. So the whole DNC is rigged because she had most of the SD behind her even before Sanders was known. Thanks for clearing that up for us.

[aggiesal]

28. Sorry, my post was meant for the chain above yours. n/t

[AgingAmerican]

8. Because they feed from the same corporate trough

[geek tragedy]

9. Because she will have WON the voting and will have a solid MAJORITY

of all categories of delegates behind her.

In other words, because she won.

[Maedhros]

11. The same people that own Hillary also own the media. [n/t]

[libodem]

13. It's all over, I suppose

Start the grave dancing.

[TheKentuckian]

21. Instead of say tomorrow or after the polls close? To depress the vote today of course.

[DonCoquixote]

29. because they realize

Their attempt to make this a horse race has actually put trump within sniffing distance of the Presidency, so they want to say "I am sorry, let me put the demon I summoned back into the cage before you shoot me." Of course, they would be quite happy with president Trump, as he is easy news, but they know they will finally get the blame (and lower ratings) when even the mainstream people blame them.

[restorefreedom]

37. California. nt

[beachbumbob]

39. 2383...2383 ...2383..,2383...,,2383

50% of all delegates + 1..,,,Hillary attained...sanders lost