2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNBC Poll: Trump Beats Clinton When Third Party Candidates Are Included
In the first alternative, we asked about Clinton, Trump, Gary Johnson (the Libertarian) and Jill Stein (the Green Party candidate) as explicit options with their party affiliation. The results from this question among registered voters show Trump at 40 percent, Clinton at 39 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent; 8 percent did not answer the question.
The other alternative vote choice question we asked gave the option of choosing Clinton, Trump or another candidate with an option to specify the candidate name in an open-ended format. In this version of the question, among registered voters, Trumps beats Clinton by 3 percentage points 39 percent to 36 percent with responses for "other" pulling in a very large 22 percent.
TimPlo
(443 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)TimPlo
(443 posts)As GOP drones like to call it. This primary has shown me how clueless people are on both sides of the aisle. Being low information and media bobble heads is a bi-partisan thing.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)I feel sorry for their hosts
TimPlo
(443 posts)If someone can not see that, when they fired that black host who was liberal for the Cruz campaign manger who got fired because he lied. I mean come on MSNBC you hired a liar that lied to much for Cruz!!
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Democratic/Republican hybrid. Run by the establishment for the 1%.
Of course MSNBC likes it.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... you know, Electoral College and all.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)Out of three on Real Clear Politics, Florida remained unchanged (Trump +1 in that single poll)
Georgia and Connecticut improved by a couple of points for Trump when Johnson & Stein were added to the poll choices (done by PPP and Quinnipiac recently).
That's probably enough to suggest that the pure Trump v Clinton polls that ignore Johnson and Stein probably overstate Hillary's competitive position.
She's not a popular person outside of the Democratic party. (but neither is Trump)
dbackjon
(6,578 posts)Probably undersampling Hispanic voters especially Puerto Ricans
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)MisterP
(23,730 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)But thanks for the concern
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)You got me. Let's hope for the 7% chance in the event we can't win the popular vote.
Matt_in_STL
(1,446 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)I know that some of the less intelligent Clinton supporters have seen "Hillary-bashing" and "Trump-humping" in any post that suggests anything other than a 400-electoral-vote landslide for Clinton. Fortunately, I don't think the admins will see it that way.
If a poll right after the conventions shows Trump in the lead, expect to see it reported here. This will still be a political discussion board, not the official Hillary Clinton Amen Corner. Of course, the admins have a right to declare "last call" for ALL honest discussions, but I'm guessing that they won't. I'm further guessing that, in the last half of June, we'll see at least a few posts from Clinton supporters who wanted the Amen Corner and are whining about not getting it.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)I can share some of my CU-evading tips, perhaps they'll be useful here for ya.
Matt_in_STL
(1,446 posts)Just because it isn't favorable to Hillary doesn't mean it can't be posted.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Blanks
(4,835 posts)Claiming that Clinton and Sanders were in a dead heat in California.
Posting poll results is one thing, believing them is a whole different thing.
Matt_in_STL
(1,446 posts)As the poster above seems to believe.
Blanks
(4,835 posts)The poster should be willing to defend the validity of the poll, but as far as I know they aren't going to be disallowed.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)nov gonna be a bloodbath, but hey, we tried
#neverhillary
#bernieorbust
#fuckunity
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)Didn't they learn anything in 2000? Greens are dead to me...they never accomplish anything.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Not only that, but Gary Johnson draws more votes from Hillary than he does from Trump.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)People who have zero party loyalty to any party.
That's kind of undeniable.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)a capital L Liberatarian or a capital G Green party member, those people are voting for their party anyways, almost no matter what. It's the independents who swing the election. And independents are not only in the center of the politics spectrum. Independents are left, right, up down, every which way. Bernie draws them. Hillary can never draw them.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)And she'll do that easily.
Meanwhile, you hang on to whatever hope you can for the next few hours ... its almost over now.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... almost every voting block there is.
I cant' wait until Folks like Obama, Biden, Warren, Castro, and Keith Ellison and many many others start to go after him.
He's really all alone ... the few spokespeople he has useless empty heads.
Trump is going to be fighting almost completely alone. Who's he got ... Christie?
No elected GOP member, except for a couple of the most insane lunatics is going to go out on a limb for him.
And he's got such thin skin ... he'll be doing nothing but reacting.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)She'll call his proposals simplistic, naive, uniformed ... and he'll lose his mind.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)Screams the b word at her
TimPlo
(443 posts)I bet they will change now that she does not have to get DNC voters.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Libertarians have a Party and a candidate. There is no crossover from Sanders supporters.
Many Sanders supporters will crossover to vote for Jill Stein...just as many Warren supporters crossed over to Sanders when he declared and she didn't. Stein's platform is much closer to Sander's than Clinton's is. Clinton is very nearly Jeb Bush, even Bush-backer Jamie Dimon says so. Only some Democratic loyalists will hold their nose and vote for Clinton. Those fed up with the corporatist Third Way won't, and a large number of indies won't.
9999dmg
(18 posts)Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)No Democratic progressive would vote for Libertarians. They are probably registered Dems who have crossed over to the dark side and voted for Republicans for years and have now become even more extreme and gone libertarian which is actually worse the Republican.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)They are dead to me and traitors to every, man woman and child...they gave us the among other horrors , 9-11, the Katrina nightmare, economic meltdown and two stupid wars which have destabilized the middle east.They also gave us the United decision. If Gore had been elected, there would have been no right-wing court picks. And now they want to help elect Trump...who is worse than Bush and he would have five possible court picks;...wow they can't do anything worthwhile but will destroy all progressive accomplishments since Roosevelt. Fuck them.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)The Greens are a political party. Those who vote for them owe no fealty to the Democratic party. If Gore wanted them to vote for him he should have appealed to them. He didn't and didn't get their votes.
If the Greens, or anyone, doesn't vote for Trump or Hillary, neither Trump or Hillary gain a vote.
0 - 0 = 0
pinebox
(5,761 posts)They don't get it, they never will.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)in July.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)I don't actually think Trump is going to beat Hillary. But this poll is also presented for consideration as one piece of info.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)But I have faith that the majority will support our nominee.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Just look at how many long time DU members have been banned or walked away and that should give you a clue. DU is a bastion of pragmatic liberalism, very anti-Nader, very anti third party, and yet even here you can see it.
There's potential for Hillary to crash in the general election.
You call it stubborn but nobody owns anyone's vote. You have to earn the votes by appealing to people's interests and ideas.
onenote
(42,714 posts)the groups that have been most loyal to the Democratic party to not vote for the Democratic nominee whoever he or she is.
That would make me question how committed they are to some of the most deeply ingrained features of the modern Democratic party -- protecting racial, ethnic, religious minorities, the disabled, women's rights, freedom of speech -- all things that Trump threatens.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)And especially if Trump/his camp continues to insult EVERYBODY. He's back to criticizing women today.
Trump Campaign: Female Judges Could Be Biased, Too
Trumps campaign continues to defend his racist attacks against a federal judge.
To defend real estate mogul Donald Trumps claim that a federal judge is biased against him because of his Mexican heritage, his campaign spokeswoman argued on Monday that it also would be acceptable to accuse a female judge of bias on the basis of gender.
Well, it would depend on her past and decisions she made as a judge, Trumps national spokeswoman Katrina Pierson said.
Noting that Trumps sister is also a federal judge, CNNs Wolf Blitzer asked Pierson if it would be awful to accuse her of bias in regard to some case because shes a woman.
But Pierson would not rule it out, adding that there is no question that there are activist judges in this country.
CNN gives a platform to Black Lives Matter, and that entire premise is injustice in the system due to race, she said.
While top Republicans have condemned Trumps attacks against U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel, who Trump claims has an absolute conflict in presiding over a fraud case involving Trump University because his parents are from Mexico, Pierson insisted her boss is correct to go after Curiel. Trump has pledged that he will continue the attacks, and on Sunday, argued that a Muslim judge could also be biased against him.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-judge-attacks_us_57560111e4b0b60682deb6e3
I truly hope he and his campaign continue to implode
Smarmie Doofus
(14,498 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Lay off the polls until Labor Day. Also, better take a look at the electoral college map. Hillary practiced using it on Bernie.
Too early for polls.
Besides, and as others have said, I trust more in the electoral college than head 2 head match-ups, especially this early on. Pretty soon you'll have someone with a right-winged poll saying that Trump will win California in the GE
onenote
(42,714 posts)And polls taken five months in advance -- before the conventions, the VP selections, before the debates before any of the multitude of things that can impact an election -- are worth diddly squat.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Spot on
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)don't want to recognize that Trump has more votes
than Reagan did, and that the repugs turnout was
a heck of a lot larger than that of the dems.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Good thing no such option exists on the actual ballot. Any 3rd-party options on the ballot are specific people, not each voter's personal fantasy candidate.
And it's comical that anyone would actually expect non-entities like Johnson & Stein to get those kind of numbers when the actual voting happens.
Il_Coniglietto
(373 posts)Of course the unnamed "other" would do well...I'm sure a significant number of those respondents were supporters of the only other major party candidate still running. If Cruz or Rubio were still running instead of Sanders, the results would probably be flipped (Clinton slightly ahead). Plus it's similar to when pollsters ask if you'd vote for Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican. The elusive "perfect" candidate that doesn't exist will always perform better than an actual person.
I imagine if this very same question gets asked in October there will be a very different result.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Il_Coniglietto
(373 posts)What likely path does Donald Trump have to victory through the Electoral College? Demographics are firmly against him. He'd basically need his best case scenario in nearly every single state. But that story doesn't grab viewers' attention so instead the media will twist themselves into pretzels trying to make this election close, and this poll is exhibit A.
There'll be plenty more of this for the next five months. We just need to work hard and grind it out: canvass, phone bank, and GOTV. We do that and we'll be watching Hillary's inauguration in January
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Il_Coniglietto
(373 posts)Tensions are high on the Democratic side right now after a contentious primary season. Meanwhile, Trump has been unopposed for over a month. The Republicans looked far more likely to have an actual brokered convention after their primaries nearly devolved into a literal "dick measuring" contest. And yet, just a few weeks later, most of them have fallen in line behind DayGlo Orange.
And though some here may not want to admit it, the same will happen on the Democratic side.
That NBC is asking and releasing this poll while the Democrats still have two candidates is not accidental. If they ask the same questions closer to the general, I think we'll see a very different result.
senz
(11,945 posts)Unless the Democrats want to lose.
onenote
(42,714 posts)It bears repeating: National polls mean little in a race that will be fought out in a limited number of states.
And polls taken five months in advance -- before the conventions, before the VP selections, before the debates, before any of the multitude of things that can impact an election -- are worth diddly squat.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)onenote
(42,714 posts)That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)Darb
(2,807 posts)So Hillary is gonna get 38%. What a steaming pile of horseshit.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)ALL bets are off. ALL.
He is pushing for it now http://www.koat.com/news/gary-johnson-pushes-to-enter-presidential-debates/39923374 and his message would resonate with a lot of people. This would be a serious problem for both Democrats and Republicans.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)They were created by big business, so I hope they aren't a viable option. I've only seen republicans and liberals whose sole focus is legalizing marijuana vote for them.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)My other half is a true Libertarian, not this faux-Paul crap. We have some interesting discussions but you know what? We agree on a LOT of things. Legalizing pot is what you always hear but there's more;
less war
less Gov't intrusion (Patriot act, NSA, wiretapping, internet)
Mostly pro choice
Against the bailout
Cutting defense
Separation of church and state issues
Anti death penalty
Pro illegal drug legalization
Vouchers for child care
Pro alternative fuels and energy
That's just the tip of the iceberg. If this guy is allowed on the stage, he is going to be propelled upwards.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)than they actually receive at the ballot box"
I guess you didn't read that part? Or just ignored it? Nevermind, I know which one it was.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)The results this cycle will be similar. As you noted, rarely do third-parties draw their poll numbers.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Sancho
(9,070 posts)Democrats need to rally and win the election.