2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAbout our Corporate “News” Media Premature Announcement that Clinton Clinched the Nomination
Last edited Tue Jun 7, 2016, 01:27 PM - Edit history (1)
Anybody whos paid attention knows that our corporate news media is nothing but a conglomerate of highly paid shills dedicated to nothing so much as maintaining the status quo in our country and has been so for many years. But yesterdays announcement that Hillary Clinton clinched the Democratic nomination for President has to be one of the most blatantly ridiculous things theyve ever engaged in coming on the heels of one of the worst episodes of voter suppression weve seen in a long time, in a primary season that has been sickeningly filled with such episodes.
Hillary Clinton has NOT clinched the Democratic nomination, and our corporate news media knows that. To win the Democratic nomination a candidate needs 2,383 delegates. Clinton is currently more than 500 pledged delegates short of that, and she will still be short that number going into the Democratic National Convention in July. In order to arrive at the conclusion that Clinton clinched the nomination yesterday, our corporate news media had to add in unpledged delegates (i.e. Superdelegates) who say that they will vote for Clinton but who wont actually vote until the Convention in July. Therefore, the claim that Clinton has clinched the nomination is essentially based on a poll of Superdelegates. So our news media may as well have awarded her the nomination before the first vote was cast, based on national polls that showed her far ahead of any other Democratic candidate.
We could argue all day about the wisdom of including unelected Superdelegates in the nominating process, and Im not going to argue that here, one way or the other. Suffice it to say that the rationale is to give Democratic Party leaders more say in the process, especially in the event that they feel that the leader in pledged delegates is too weak to have a good chance of winning the general election. That is exactly what they are facing in this case. Hillary Clinton has unprecedented negative net favorability ratings for a major party nominee, and she is involved in major scandals that could end up in indictment and conviction on criminal charges at worst, or just continued revelations that cause her favorability ratings to plummet further at best. That is also unprecedented for a major party nominee. Furthermore, a substantial amount of evidence has accumulated that election fraud may be the primary basis for her current lead, and this issue may or may not come up at the Convention, I dont know.
In any event, the bottom line is that the Superdelegates have not voted yet, and they will not vote until the July Convention. Arguments will be made at the Convention, and then they will decide. A lot can happen between now and then. As is the case with all polls, the Superdelegates who currently say they will be voting for Clinton could change their minds before its all over.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Gomez163
(2,039 posts)If they had held back - that would have been wrong.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)It is a prediction, disguised as a foregone conclusion.
Gomez163
(2,039 posts)Time for change
(13,714 posts)We can't afford to risk the possibility that the Democratic nominee will be indicted for federal crimes while running against a fascist.
onenote
(42,714 posts)and that announcement was going to be made tonight at 8:30 as soon as the results were in from NJ. The fact the announcement was made 24 hours earlier changes nothing.
The AP story refers to her as the presumptive nominee. Virtually every story I've read or heard does the same.
It's a presumption -- A conclusion as to the likely existence or nonexistence of a fact based on the available evidence.
In this case the available evidence is that Clinton has enough pledged delegates plus commitments from SDs to give her the nomination.
It's not an irrebuttable presumption -- it could be rebutted if new evidence becomes available, such as evidence that SDs are switching to Sanders. It also can become stronger over time if more SDs commit to Clinton, if Sanders SDs switch to her and/or Sanders makes no headway in getting any SDs to switch.
The media reports "predictions" all the time -- they report polls (some of which Sanders supporters are quite enamored of and Bernie himself likes to cite as if they were gospel rather than predictions). They also call elections before the votes are all counted and certified when the available evidence gives them sufficient confidence about a particular outcome.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)or any time before Clinton has enough delegates to win the nomination -- which, if she does win the nomination, won't be until the convention.
Several "news" stories say that she has "clinched" the nomination, which is not true, and goes substantially beyond "presumptive" nominee. She's been the presumptive nominee for many years now, and all during the primary season.
The media did not report this as a prediction, they reported it as a foregone conclusion. Nothing happened last night to change the situation much, except that we witnessed one of the biggest examples of voter suppression in our history.
onenote
(42,714 posts)There is no reason for the media not to report the fact that a candidate has, on a presumptive basis, reached the threshold needed to win a nomination.
And calling this voter suppression is insulting to the victims of real vote suppression. The people who have faced violence and intimidation to prevent them from voting, who in the past faced poll taxes and other unconstitutional hurdles, and who today are being disenfranchised by ID requirements that are difficult for poor and elderly voters to meet.
No one is preventing a single Sanders voter from going to the polls. Not one. If they choose not to vote it's entirely on them. The reality is that they have exactly the same reason to vote today as they did yesterday. Sanders strategy was and still is to win as many contests by as large a margin today as possible thereby cutting into (but almost certainly not erasing) Clinton's pledged delegate lead. His strategy then involves taking the results from today along with GE polls to the SDs in an effort to persuade them to switch.
That strategy is unaffected by yesterday's announcement particularly since it was widely reported on Sunday and Monday that Clinton was so close to having a combined total of pledged delegates and SDs that it was inevitable that she would be proclaimed the presumptive nominee as soon as New Jersey (a state Sanders admitted he isn't going to win) was called.
So if Sanders voters stay home the only explanation is that while Sanders isn't a quitter, a bunch of his supporters are. Or they're simply low information voters who never understood what Sanders' game plan was or they're fairweather supporters -- in any event, hardly the enthusiastic, committed revolutionaries they've been depicted as being.
senz
(11,945 posts)apcalc
(4,465 posts)Time for change
(13,714 posts)That word goes far beyond "presumptive"
apcalc
(4,465 posts)...teached the threshhold or some such...
senz
(11,945 posts)They had this all planned to suppress voter turnout because they feared a strong showing by Bernie today would shrink Hill's lead (currently at 286 delegates) precipitously.
This was theft.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)It's not some vast conspiracy by the man to hold Bernie down, he just lost.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)onenote
(42,714 posts)His strategy hasn't changed because of the announcement. His strategy going into today was to try to win CA and other states, cut into Clinton's pledged delegate margin, and using those outcomes plus GE polls try to convince SDs to switch to him from Clinton over the next month or so.
That is still the strategy he announced last night.
So why would Sanders' supporters who were going to vote for him decide not to? Why were they going to vote for him in the first place if not for the purpose of advancing his strategy.
Seems like a lot of Sanders supporters didn't know why they were voting or were simply fairweather supporters if they're not going out to vote because the pronouncement of Clinton as the presumptive nominee that was going to be made today at around 8:30 pm (and everyone, including Sanders knew that was going to happen) was made 24 hours earlier.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)Just like voters for any candidate, some are not very well informed, and not intimately familiar with their candidate's strategy, and an announcement like the news media made last night could cause them to sit it out.
onenote
(42,714 posts)voters and fairweather supporters and that his GOTV teams aren't capable of explaining to them why its important that they vote.
Okay. Not terribly surprised.
senz
(11,945 posts)Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)apcalc
(4,465 posts)Time for change
(13,714 posts)to boost the Democratic Party's coronation plans since before the primary season started.
Do you think that's acceptable?
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)It's the same as it was in '08 and '04.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)did the media have to call uncommitted Superdelegates to elicit commitments from them so that they could get the timing of the announcement just right?
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)SD numbers and PD numbers were listed together as well. '08 was the first time anyone started screaming about it, because Clinton was ahead in SD's, but then she conceded and asked her SD's to support Obama. AP called it for Obama on 6/3/08.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)are anonymous? They would not allow their names to be released. Hell, they might not even exist. This is nothing but one more blatant effort to reduce voter turnout -- in this case by presenting a lie -- in a long serious of voter suppression efforts in the Democratic primaries this year.
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)You're seeing things that aren't there. Your candidate did well, but not well enough. She has way more PDs now, and will STILL have the majority of PD's later tonight. It's time to look to the GE.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)I will make up my own mind, and the last thing I need is advice from someone who doesn't understand what's going on, and who thinks that all the voter suppression that has occurred this primary season is something to laugh about.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)We have all these members railing and ranting at individuals, all the while looking the other way as the party does all it can to suppress the vote and keep the general populace from becoming educated and informed.
If someone is mad about how the party has performed its duty it is the party's fault, not the person who is mad that voting has been made more difficult.
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)You mean the issues caused by Republicans in NY and AZ?
Faux pas
(14,681 posts)because the media running the country is not democratic in any way, shape or form.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Network projections "made it clear" he had no chance, so Jimmy Carter conceded to Pruneface 90 minutes before California was done.
Who owns the media? Same people who own the War Machine and Washington: The rich.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)Our "news" media fawned all over Reagan from beginning to end, and couldn't get enough of insulting Carter for every imperfection they could think of, real, imagined, or just made up. Same old story. Every election they give the more conservative candidate the benefit of every doubt and have their knives out for the more liberal candidate.
The non-existent "violence" of the Sanders delegates at the NV state convention, while ignoring the blatant abuse of power by the Clinton surrogates was the ultimate in hypocrisy.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Seems those who like to redistribute the wealth seem to have gotten classified enemies of the state, even when loyal.
CIA Out of Control
Russ Baker
Village Voice, Sept. 10, 1991
EXCERPT...
Dellums press secretary Max Miller says the representative from
Berkeley, together with majority whip David Bonior--another
outspoken liberal--made an agreement with Speaker Thomas Foley to
maintain a low profile in return for gaining seats on the committee.
After one full round of legislation and briefings, Miller says,
Dellums will be heard from. "They wanted to find out as much as
they could before speaking out." Meanwhile, the energetic Oliver
North, in his role as president of something called the Freedom
Alliance, has launched a campaign to collect a million Dump Dellums
signatures. He calls Dellums "a pro-Marxist, antidefense radical,"
who would be a threat on the "supersensitive" committee. Putting
Dellums on the panel, North says, was an "extremely reckless and
very dangerous appointment."
And those who make trouble get trouble. Reports and rumors that
the apparatus pokes into the personal lives of members of Congress
underlines the danger of investigating national security agencies.
"There's a little bit of fear that if you do go after the
intelligence community, your career is threatened," says McGehee,
author of "Deadly Deceits: My 25 years in the CIA." Even the
complacent Senate intelligence committee chair David Boren has
reason to worry. According to the "Voice"'s Doug Ireland (see Press
Clips, May 28), Boren faced a vicious primary battle in his first
senatorial campaign, during which his opponents accused him of being
a homosexual. At a press conference, Boren swore on a white Bible
that he was not. "It would therefore be utterly churlish," Ireland
wrote, "to speculate on whether or not the Company has a file on the
state of its tamed watchdog's libido." Since then, Boren has called
Robert Gates "one of the most candid people we've ever dealt with."
Leading congressional critics of the CIA have been defeated,
despite their long, distinguished careers in Washington and
Congress's nearly foolproof 98 per cent reelection rate. Both Otis
Pike and Frank Church were defeated soon after chairing their
precedent-setting '70s hearings. Pike's report had been so
incendiary that Congress voted not to release it before the White
House had a chance to censor the document. (It was ultimately
leaked to and published by the "Voice." Pike's committee staff
director had been warned by the CIA special counsel, "Pike will pay
for this, you wait and see--we'll destroy him for this," according
to "The New York Times." Also defeated were outspoken senators Dick
Clark, Birch Bayh, and Harold Hughes. Foreign money--possibly South
African--is believed to have financed the defeat of Clark, a vocal
critic of the CIA and U.S. ties with South Africa.
Challenging the CIA also means trying to rein in dictatorial
tendencies that naturally accrue to the occupant of the Oval Office.
"Every president of the United States, no matter what he says before
he becomes president, about how he's going to clean things up," says
Marchetti, "once he gets in there and finds out that's *his* agency,
that's *his* intelligence community, hey, all bets are off."
One man who told the truth blew his chance to become CIA
director, thanks to "reformer" Jimmy Carter. Hank Knoche, acting
director following Bush's retirement, had been called down to a
Senate committee. "The chairman was complaining that `we just don't
know what's really going on,'" says Marchetti, who was privy to the
details of the incident. "They asked about covert action
operations: `Do we know all the stuff that's going on? Could you
tell us more about them?'" Asked to reveal the 10 largest ongoing
operations, Knoche offered to name a few of the lesser ones, despite
urgings from his aide that he keep his mouth shut. President Carter
reportedly heard about it, and was none too happy. Instead of
Knoche, the odds-on favorite for the slot, he named intelligence
novice and old Naval Academy chum Admiral Stansfield Turner. "Hank
learned his lesson that day," says Marchetti.
CONTINUED...
https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.conspiracy/G8CP9pwqjvU
Toss in the NSA wall-to-wall Frank Church warned us about in 1975 and it leaves little wiggle room to rock the boat. Isn't this a nice democracy or what?
PS: Great to read ya, Time for change.
Time for change
(13,714 posts)I'm proud to say that I voted for Frank Church in the 76 California Dem Presidential primary.
They do manage to get rid of our best. And when they can't do it any other way, there is always the JFK or Paul Wellstone way.
senz
(11,945 posts)A deliberate attempt to suppress voter turnout for Bernie in six important primaries.
Dirty trick from a dirty campaign.
pmorlan1
(2,096 posts)Thank you for a well written OP. I enjoyed reading it immensely.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Response to Time for change (Original post)
Corruption Inc This message was self-deleted by its author.
felix_numinous
(5,198 posts)Thank you Time for Change, for a dose of reality.