2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's how Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential race
Mark Murray @mmurraypoliticsHere's how Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential race. Via @NBCFirstRead http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-how-hillary-clinton-clinched-n587056
Hillary Clinton took advantage of four factors in her race against Bernie Sanders.
She ran up the score in large states with large minority populations: Clinton's biggest delegate hauls were in large states with large minority populations, which allowed her to build a comfortable delegate lead over Sanders by March 15. By contrast, only one of Sanders' wins -- in Washington state -- netted him more than 40 delegates. All of the other big wins were Clinton's.
Self-identified Democrats were her firewall: The chief reason why Sanders was unable to run up the score in the states he won is because of Clinton's strong performance with self-identified Democrats. When Sanders won, it was due to independents. But in the 27 states with exit polls, Clinton won self-identified Democrats by a 64%-35% margin, as the Atlantic's Ron Brownstein has observed.
Mark Murray ?@mmurraypolitics 2h2 hours ago
1. She won big -- in the largest states with large minority populations
2. She won, 2-to-1, among self-ID'ed Dems
Party establishment embraced her and resisted Sanders: "The Party Decides" didn't work in the Republican presidential race, but it certainly did in the Democratic contest. Superdelegates have overwhelmingly backed Clinton by a 572-to-46 margin. It is very hard to lose a Democratic race when 1) self-identified Democrats and 2) Democratic Party elites are behind you.
A no- (or little-) drama campaign: Unlike her campaign eight years ago, Clinton's 2016 campaign team never lost its cool or composure, even when things weren't going that well. Producing little drama is a benefit to any campaign -- and it's very hard to achieve.
read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-how-hillary-clinton-clinched-n587056
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)laruemtt
(3,992 posts)Mama always explained the difference between cleverness and true creative intelligence. Cleverness is merely being able to figure out how to get things to go your way. Hillary had the "cleverness" to figure out how to get everything to swing her way, starting even before all six of those rather fortuitous coin tosses in Iowa. Intelligence is more about vision, and not only limited to self-serving ambitions. I haven't seen any vision from the clever, self-serving Hilliary, and she will never get my vote.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)Bernie wins on principle, he's the only candidate to do so
His appeal leaves HRC and Trump in the dust inside and OUTSIDE party lines...
this is the takeaway that HRC supporters can't deny nor marginalize
the continuing of that pricipled stand will proceed throughout GE... HRC supporters, buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride as we principled progressives demand and force you to the left and hold you there
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)And no, Bernie has no principles. He has shown that by not releasing his tax returns, as every other presidential candidate except Trump has done for many years. And no, speeches do not matter, but tax returns sure do. What the hell is a progressive anyway? I'm a Democrat.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)without independents you'll lose, so guess what the GE centers on... hmmm... what group is catered to throughout GE... hmmm, who is that group again...
Bernie has the greater appeal, you and everyone else know this
'Bernie has no principles.'
drum roll.... here's the kicker and 'supporting' point to your 'validation' of your premise
'He has shown that by not releasing his tax returns, as every other presidential candidate except Trump has done for many years.'
Tadaaaaaaaaaaaaa
there it is folks.. the benchmark HRC supporters have concerning 'principles'
actual policy and issue speeches don't matter folks your tax returns do...
'And no, speeches do not matter, but tax returns sure do.'
for the comedic relief and punch line....
'What the hell is a progressive anyway? I'm a Democrat.'
We get it, you and other HRC don't know progressive/liberal ideals, your candidate proves that over and over... party over principle... we get it... you're a 'democrat', HRC is republican light her and evidently your shift right is easily proven
case in point...
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)So it doesn't work to try to hold that threat over Dems. If you sit it out, you'll pay the consequences, too.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)there ya go... the lesser evil bait and switch
Independents were marginalized ny HRC supporters during primary... now they matter? spare me
threat? it's not a threat when you and all those other HRC supporters disregarded independents throughout the open primaries
principle over party... choose wisely... I did
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)let's check the box....
Both HRC and Trump have name and notoriety recognition
Bernie was labelled 'fringe' and 'radical' candidate by HRC at the onset of the primary... that suppressive tactic failed miserably
The crowds showed his level of appeal, but you will pivot to rallies didn't translate to votes... I would counter with open and closed primaries
I would also counter with SDs pledging before a single primary vote was cast.. why did they do that?
I 'imagine' that principle over party doesn't matter much to you, it does to me...
HRC is republican light... her past and now present prove this out as she's had to be yanked way to the left, beyond her comfort level
party over principle is something I cannot abide by, HRC and her husband have pulled the party right, that's wrong
back to the point of appeal, demographics bear out my point, if more primaries were open rather than closed this race would have been very different
you know it as well as I, facts are within the data
GummyBearz
(2,931 posts)1. name recognition
2. insider politics
3. money
bigtree
(85,999 posts)...so much dismissal in that of what Sanders' campaign claimed were their superior strengths; independent (i.e., outsider); anti-establishment; grassroots fundraising.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)FSogol
(45,491 posts)That's the key to beating Trump too. We need a massive turnout.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)One thing that was glaringly obvious in Sanders' campaign was lack of organization. This is born out by story after story of his campaign not actually knowing the primary rules.
You can't hope to win the game (and it is a game in many ways), without knowing the rules. Clinton has that to her advantage, tenfold. She's been through the Presidential primary process 4 times now (2 with Bill, 2 on her own) and a person, if they're smart and paying attention, picks up knowledge that showed invaluable in this run. Add on top of great organization, is that she has had support from some corners of the Democratic Party (and Democratic voters) since 2008--talk about loyalty. These folks have been chomping at the bit to help her win this primary. You may not have seen thousands of people at Clinton's rallies but those people showed up where it counted... at the polls. Bernie can't say the same.
FSogol
(45,491 posts)I remember reading on DU that at Sander's 2nd or 3 big rally at the start, they didn't have anyone registering people to vote. That has to be job number one at every event, especially large rallies.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)based on reading about not registering voters, my opinion that if you're counting on Independents, then you better get their registration changed prior to the primaries so they can participate in closed primaries, etc. But you're right ground game is organization too.
FSogol
(45,491 posts)candidate. What was lacking was the organization to have a good ground game. No one registering voters, no one knocking on doors, no one preparing sample ballots (or even understanding what they were), no one understanding the rules for each state/primary, not enough precinct captains in PR, not even applying correctly to reserve certain venues. I blame Weaver and Devine. They didn't do the work and didn't bring in people capable of doing the work.
By contrast, Obama's campaign combined a huge social media buzz with a top notch ground game and he beat the establishment candidate. Sanders only duplicated the social media half of Obama's campaign.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)FSogol
(45,491 posts)Carter, Mondale, Hart, Dukakis, Tsongas, Gore, Kerry, Richardson, O'Malley
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)I've always been much more about getting the Democrat elected and not getting too wrapped up in a particular candidate. My first Presidential election, I initially supported Jerry Brown against Clinton but happily supported Clinton when the time came.
FSogol
(45,491 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Remember his comments about Iowa?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sanders-campaign-cites-alarming-signs-clinton-020552922.html
Weavers concern is based on what he described as an alarming letter received by a voter named Dennis Clifford in Hawarden, Iowa. Although Clifford is a Sanders supporter, the letter, from a Clinton campaign office in Sioux City, urged him to caucus for Clinton and identified a non-resident as his local precinct captain. That would not actually be prohibited, but Weaver, who admitted he wasnt familiar with the rules, claimed it indicated the Clinton campaign is infiltrating the caucuses with out-of-state paid staffers.
Seriously. A campaign manager who "wasn't familiar with the rules". The mind boggles.
'Course, that was back when the Sanders campaign thought caucuses were bad. Before they determined that caucuses were about all that they could win.
Sid
FSogol
(45,491 posts)Yavin4
(35,443 posts)president.
Wow, the system is rigged!!!
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Last edited Tue Jun 7, 2016, 12:29 PM - Edit history (1)
but together they will account for a win for dems in Nov if fools here don't alienate them before the GE.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)they're the fastest growing voting bloc in the country right now. Clinton did a really good job of not dismissing them.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)is the candidate that I want to be president.
texstad79
(115 posts)it helps if you are actually a Democrat!
highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)bigtree
(85,999 posts)...no one seemed to really care, though, except for her most strident opponents on both sides of the political spectrum.
Maybe it'll all catch fire in D.C., you seem to have run out of primary.
After that, it's just the republican campaign...welp!